- LineStar® Daily Dribble
- Posts
- 2019 NBA Finals DFS Preview 🏆
2019 NBA Finals DFS Preview 🏆
It's almost time to put a bow on the 2018/19 NBA season. The Finals is expected to be a good one, as the Raptors are probably the only Eastern Conference team that could contend with Golden State. Toronto has star power in Kawhi Leonard, an eager coach, and a rabid fan base. Will it be enough? That's why they play the games.
How Each Team Got Here
The Raptors had one more regular season win than Golden State, which means they'll have home court advantage through the Finals. The Raptors barely squeaked into the Conference Finals thanks to a last second shot in Game 7 vs. Philadelphia, but they looked like world beaters in dispersing Milwaukee after that. Toronto also won both games vs. Golden State in the regular season.
The Warriors will be without Kevin Durant for probably at least the first two games at Scotiabank Arena. The Raptors are a -1 favorite in Game 1 but there's value on GSW, as they looked great sweeping Portland in the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors will have had 10 days off before Game 1 of the Finals, but should mesh in nicely after that.
Top Tier Players
Obviously, there are some marquee stars in action in these Finals but with Durant's absence, it especially looks like the mid-tier guys (who are still pretty great) are going to be the major deciding factor in wins and losses.
Kawhi Leonard (DK: $11,800 FD: $16,000)
You know option 1A for Toronto is going to be Kawhi Leonard throughout the entire Finals. He's looking for a big payday and what better way to secure a max contract & endorsement deals than another NBA Finals MVP (Spurs, 2014). Leonard went for 50+ fantasy points in 4 of 6 games vs. the Bucks. He wasn't completely dominant vs. Milwaukee though, especially in Game 4 at Toronto when he shot just 13 times. He also shot just 9-22 at Scotiabank in Game 6, but still grabbed 17 boards and had a 66 point fantasy night.
Steph Curry (DK: $11,400 FD: $15,500)
10 days off between the Western and NBA Finals may seem like a detriment to the Warriors to some, but what it does is allow Steph Curry to rest his weary ankles. He should be fresh for the games in Toronto and will undoubtedly be taking advantage of Durant's absence. Curry has scored 33 or more points in each of the last 5 games that Durant has missed. He had a 78 point fantasy night to close out the Trail Blazers with 37 points, 11 assists, and 13 rebounds. Once again, the price tag is a concern though, as Curry had just 10 points in the one game he played vs. the Raptors in the regular season.
Mid Tier Options
Klay Thompson (DK: $8,400 FD: $12,500)
Klay Thompson will have value at least in the two games that Durant is going to be out (if not more). Splash Brothers have had a family reunion in the games after Durant's injury that includes 39+ fantasy points for Thompson in 4 of the last 6. Thompson has shot 50% or better from three point range in 3 of the last 6 playoff games. He was 9-20 from the field including 3-9 from three point range when playing in Toronto on November 29th, although Curry was out of the lineup. Thompson will also be fired up after his costly All-NBA snub.
Pascal Siakam (DK: $9,000 FD: $11,500)
One of the better bets for accumulating fantasy points on the Raptors is Pascal Siakam. He's had a 25 point game in the series vs. the Bucks as well as 13 rebounds in another contest. Siakam went for 21+ in 2 of the last 3 vs. Philadelphia and went for 43+ fantasy points in 2 of the last 4 postseason games overall. Siakam's 26 points trailed only Leonard's 37 when the Warriors visited Toronto in November.
Kyle Lowry (DK: $7,800 FD: $12,000)
Kyle Lowry can also score in a variety of ways for the Raptors. In the Milwaukee series, he had four games of 17+ points, grabbed at least 4 rebounds in each contest, and has had at least 5 assists in the last four. Lowry averaged 16.5 ppg in the two games vs. Golden State in the regular season, but was a facilitator with 12 assists in both tilts. Lowry has at least 30 fantasy points in 8 of the last 10 playoff games and has gone for 40+ twice.
Draymond Green (DK: $10,600, FD: $14,500)
Draymond Green loves the spotlight and there's no brighter stage in the NBA than the Finals. It's possible that Demarcus Cousins returns as early as Game 1 from his quadricep injury, which would put a dent in Green's production. Steve Kerr would be dumb not to continue to use Green as he has thus far though. After all, the PF is producing with a double-double in 9 straight playoff games including four triple doubles over that span. That includes back-to-back triple doubles to close out Portland that resulted in Green tallying 67.75 and 64 fantasy points. Toronto is solid up front with Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, but Draymond has been here before.
Value Plays
Kevon Looney (DK: $4,800, FD; $10,500 )
Kevon Looney had a couple step up games in the playoffs recently, most notably going for 12 points and 14 rebounds as the Warriors closed out Portland. He put in 14 points and snatched 7 rebounds in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals and was also solid in eliminating Houston with a 14/5 night on the road. Looney has had a 29 and a 35 fantasy point night in 2 of the last 3 games and could be finding his groove within this Warriors offense at the right time.
Jonas Jerebko (DK:$1,800 FD:$6,000)
If you're going to roster Leonard, Curry, or Durant when he's back in the lineup, you're going to have to find some value. Golden State could give 6'10" Jonas Jerebko some more usage to help match up against the size of Toronto up front. Jerebko had 9 points and 5 rebounds in just 14 minutes in Game 1 vs. Portland. He didn't see much court time after that but had 20 points and 9 rebounds in 32 minutes when Golden State last played in Toronto in November.
Fred VanVleet (DK: $5,400 FD: $8,500)
Fred VanVleet will likely have more value on DraftKings based on his pricing in the Eastern Conference Finals. The backup PG has really come into his own in the last three vs. the Bucks, scoring 13, 21, and 14 points. He had more than 2 assists just twice vs. Milwaukee though, and broke more than 1 rebound just once. So you're putting a lot of eggs in the points basket. Even so, that's two 26+ fantasy points in the last three games. Since there's only one tilt per night, a 26 pointer might be enough to swing things your way.
Enjoy the Finals everyone, the 2019/20 season tips off on October 22nd which is a short 145 days away! In the meantime, feel free to check out Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) on Twitter for more sports betting talk and DFS news.