LineStar® Daily Dribble - Issue #375: Risky GPP approach

Welcome to the first edition of the NBA newsletter by LineStarTyler.

Starting this week, we will be putting the NBA newsletter out 7 days a week. I will be covering one weekday and do Sunday’s, while Carl will fill in the rest.

I want to start by talking a little bit about my strategy and what I value. The main things I value are 1) Player's fantasy points per minute 2) How many minutes a player might play 3) Any usage changes based on who is or is not playing and 4) Pace of a game.

Today's NBA Matchups

For tonight we have a 3 game slate that is very interesting because there are a few great high priced options and a lack of value on the slate. We will have a choice to make, try and go balanced or a more stud/dud type approach. Due to the Salaries of the top end guys, I am leaning toward the stud/dud approach even with limited value. I will have a heavier weight on the LAL/MIL game, but will still have some exposure to the other 2 games.

Injury Notes

I expect everyone except Austin Rivers to play today but here is what the current injury situation looks like.

Derrick Favors- Probable

Alec Burks- Probable

Anthony Davis- Probable

Lebron James- Questionable

KCP- Questionable

Wes Matthews- Questionable

Austin Rivers- Doubtful

Tonight's Point Guard /Shooting Guard Notables

Lebron James DK $9.2 k | FD $9.5k

Lebron is still the same player he has always been, however, his team has not needed to get him the minutes he usually plays. Tonight they will need him to play a full allotment of minutes, and at his price, I want a lot of him on both sites.

Jrue Holiday DK $6.6 k | FD $7.6k

Jrue is simply too cheap. With a DK floor of low 30's and ceiling of high 40's he's a great cash play but you can also use him in GPP's due to his upside. He's going to play 34+ min at a reasonable price in the highest-scoring game of the night. Sign me up.

Shooting guard is not my favorite position tonight and I will likely be trying to find some value here. However, on FD I would be interested in Donovan Mitchell based on the fact that he likely scores 10 points more than anyone.

The value players I am looking at here are:

KCP DK $3.7k | FD $4k- Not a high fantasy per minute guy but we can expect at least 25 minutes which is more than we can say about most of the options. He is a GPP punt option only.

Joe Ingles DK $4.3k | FD $4.4k - He plays at about a .88 fantasy per minute rate, and I expect him to see 24 or 25 minutes. He is a risky option but if he gets hot he can push the 30 point mark and with today's lack of value that could allow you a takedown.

Alex Caruso DK $3.2k | FD 3.8K- This play is another punt GPP play. He is a .86 fantasy point per minute player who will see at least 19 minutes. This play is risky but if he plays well and gets a few extra minutes it could pay off at near minimum price.

Pat Connaughton DK $3.4k | FD 4K- He is another risky punt play. Like I said in the introduction I am leaning towards stud/dud type line up so I will need one or two of these guys to hit.

Tonight's SF / PF Notables

Giannis Antetokounmpo DK $10.5k | FD $11.3k

Giannis is the highest fantasy point per minute player in the league. He also is in a matchup where we could see his ceiling of minutes played. With that, I want all the Giannis I can get. He could score 10 points more than anyone on the slate. In the 3 close games, MIL has had this year he has played at least 35 minutes in all of them and has scored over 60 in each one.

Anthony Davis DK $9.4k | FD $10k

The Lakers have only needed Lebron and Davis for 28-32 minutes most games. This has been limiting their ceilings. I expect 34 or 35 minutes out of Davis tonight which gives us the ceiling that we saw out of AD last year.

Kelly Oubre DK $5.7k FD | FD $5.6k

Oubre has finally started to find his shot, he is typically a .95 fantasy point per minute guy but due to his slow start is at .9 this year. I like his price here and is currently in about 25% of my lineups

Tonight's Center Position Notables

James Wiseman DK $4.5K | FD $4.4k

GSW has been trying to get Wiseman more minutes in the last few games and has done well with them. He has been playing at 1.1 Fantasy points per minute and is a great salary relief option with upside.

Steven Adams DK $5.7k | FD $5.1k 

I really like Adams on FD at 5.1k, on DK I will have a little exposure but not too much. He has been getting minutes and will be needed tonight vs Gobert.

Montrezl Harrell DK $5.2k |

This is a DK play only, on FD I would rather go with Mitchell Robinson at $5.6k.

My Strategy Tonight on DK

I will be making 50 lineups tonight and will be targeting Giannis, AD, and Lebron. At least one of the 3 will be in every one of my lineups, and most lineups will likely have 2 of them.

*** My ownership exposure will likely change depending on news that comes out ****

My player pool of players tonight is: (in order most to least exposure)

Giannis, Lebron, Montrez, Immanuel Quickley, Joe Ingles, James Wiseman Kris Middleton, Alex Caruso, Jrue Holiday Kelly Oubre, Bojan Bogdon, AD, Julius Randle, KCP, Steven Adams, Derrick Favors, Alex Burks, Brook Lopez Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Brad Wannamaker, Andrew Wiggins, Donte Divincenzo, RJ Barrett, Elfrid Payton, Mitchell Robinson, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, DJ Augustine, Mike Conley, Dennis Schroder.

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Thank you for reading and if you have any question please hit me up in the chat @LineStarTyler

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