Happy Sunday, and welcome to another LinestarTyler edition of the daily dribble. Today is a particularly good day to do some NBA DFS since NFL is on a break this week as TB and KC prepare for the Superbowl.

As in most of the articles that I have written I have gone into a little strategy talk. Today I figured I would talk about how I pick value plays. Since there is not much value on this slate I figured that could be interesting. The obvious value plays are Bruce Brown and Terence Davis because both of them are likely starting due to injuries on each team. However, both have played limited minutes while starting and likely will have pretty high ownership. As an example of the process that I go through with value, let's talk about Terence Davis.

Terence Davis started last game but only played 19 minutes. I expect a similar amount of playing time out of him today. Davis is about a .95fp/min player typically, but with Lowry and Vanvleet on the court, he goes down to about .8fp/min. If he only gets 19 minutes that simply won't cut it, and at 30-40% owned I will happily fade that value. Since there is value to be found with the Raptors let's look at other options. Stanley Johnson, Yuta Wanatabe, and Aaron Baynes are the next obvious guys. I won't be using Johnson unless he starts because his minutes are too sporadic and I can't trust them. However, I will be using both Watanabe and Baynes as my pivots off Davis. Wanatabe over the last 5 games has averaged .99fp/min and .9/fp min over the last 10. He also has been got more minutes (24 min last game) than Davis. Since he isn't starting his minutes aren't as secure but at much lower ownership I will be taking a stab here. Then there is Bynes, with the release of Len and Boucher getting a back seat over the last couple of games Baynes has stepped into a bigger role and has played 23 minutes in 3 of the last 5 games. He has also hit value in 4 of his last 5. Baynes averages .97fp/ min at 3800 on DK that is worth a stab and if he can luck into a double-double then he will crush his price tag.

When it comes to value, I look at a few things and check them off to decide if I want to play them.

1. How many minutes will they play?

2. How is their usage affected by the other starters?

3. What is their fantasy points per minute output?

4. What will ownership be like?

If ownership is high and they cant check off all 3 of the first few questions I fade the value, if ownership is low and they check off all 3 I will smash the value.

Today's Slate

We have a interesting 4 game slate, the fasted paced game with BKN vs WAS, but from a DFS perspective I like every game. There are a lot of good pay up options with limited value.

Injury News

Keep your eyes on what happens with Min as Reid or Russell being out could open up some value.

Tonight's Point Guard /Shooting Guard Notables

Kyrie Irving DK $9.3 k | FD $9.3k

Steve Nash has been giving his stars a ton of minutes, and with Harden out it opens up even more usage for Irving in a fast-paced game vs the defenseless Wizards

Darius Garland DK $5.6 k | FD $5.2k

Garland is still underpriced since coming back from injury. He averages .93fp/min and has been playing 30 minutes a game. He is in a pace up spot plus Ricky Rubio and D'angelo Russell's defense is more like a bull fighter than a basketball player. He will likely be low owned and will help us get some of the higher priced studs today.

Value Guards :

Bruce BrownDK $3.8 k | FD $4.2k

Bruce Brown takes a really big hit to his usage with Kyrie and KD on the court. He goes from a 1 fp/min player down to about .8/min. Last game he only played 24.5 min and if he didn't get bailed out by a blowout without the stars on the court he wouldn't have hit value. Today I expect him to see around 24-26 minutes. At .8fp/min I don't expect him to break the slate. However, I will be playing a bit of him, due to the lack of value on the slate.

Seth Curry DK $4.5 k | FD $4.4k

He is back playing his 26-28 minutes a game, but his shot hasn't started falling after coming back from covid. He is one of the best shooters in the league and at this price tag with limited value I will take some stabs.

Tonight's SF / PF Notables

Kevin Durant DK $10.1 k | FD $10.6k

In a pace up spot vs the defenseless Wizards and no James Harden, you have to like KD here. He is a little expensive but there is 60 pt upside without a doubt.

Domantas Sabonis DK $9.1 k | FD $9.1k

Sabonis has been one of the most consistent fantasy players this year, and with the price drop, I will take a shot. The matchup isn't the best but I will take the high 40's low 50's fantasy points I get from him and move on.

SF/PF Value

Yuta Watanabe DK $3.3k | FD $4k- My main pivot off Terence Davis.



Tonight's Center Position Notables

I like Joel Embiid but I can't write about only studs. With the Center position, if I don't play Embiid I will likely be going to value plays and spread exposure to Aron Baynes, Khem Birch, Naz Reid (if he plays). If Reid does not play I will use Vanderbilt a bit too.

Aron Baynes DK $3.8 k | FD $4.4k

We spoke about him earlier, but vs Vucevic the raptors may not be able to go small. Meaning he is probably likely to get 22-24 minutes today, and if so he should be good to hit value and allow you some salary savings to grab KD, Irving, Embiid, Westbrook, or Sabonis.

Khem Birch DK $4 k | FD $4.5k

Birch has a good match up and has received at least 25 minutes in 6 of his last 8 games. He averages .8fp/min and .88fp/min over the last 5, with the extra run he's been getting and at low ownership I will be taking some stabs here.

In my eyes he is the same type of play as Bruce Brown but with a quarter of the ownership. Sign me up.

My Strategy/Exposure Today

I will be using a Stud/Dud approach in most of my lineups and will pivot away from Terence Davis/Bruce Brown when possible. I will still use brown however I might fade Davis altogether.

As of now In order of most exposure to least. Here are the players in my player pool

The Studs:

I will be using are Sabonis KD, Irving, Embiid, Westbrook, and Vucevic.

Mid Tier:

Galand, Siakam, Lowry, Vanvleet, Holiday, Reid, Harris, Simmons, Lamb, Sexton, Fournier, Ross, Gordon, Hachimuria, Bertans, Vanderbilt, Mcdermott,

Value:

Wanatabe, Birch, Curry, Brown, Baynes, Davis, Prince, Mcdaniels, Ish Smith

____________________________________________________________________________________

Thank you for reading and if you have any question please hit me up in the chat @LineStarTyler



🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.