Happy Sunday everyone! It’s time for some good ole fashion NBA DFS, with your boy LineStarTyler.

In the NBA chat on Thursday, we talked briefly about negative correlation in NBA and how staying away from that is more important than correlating your lineup. Since there were quite a few that did not know what it was I will go into a little about it now.

A negative correlation is a relationship between two variables in which one variable increases as the other decreases, and vice versa. With NBA this happens in several different ways.

Using today’s slate as an example here are the rotations for NYK last game. You notice that Quickley subs in and out for Payton. If one of those players gets hot they will likely take minutes away from the other, thus they are negatively correlated.

Another example of negative correlation applied in a different is using starters from the same team. For this lets us MIL as an example, Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday are the team's three main options. Since there is only one basketball, and only so much scoring that can happen it is very unlikely that all 3 will go off to make them all useable in the same lineup. Due to their salaries, it would be best to only play 1 or 2 rather than all 3.

Today's Matchups

Today we have a 5 game slate, that could have a decent amount of news that may flip the slate on its head. Make sure to pay attention to the news today as there is a good chance my article is totally worthless in a few hours.

Key games to watch for DFS purposes are ATL vs MIL and Was vs SA.

Injury News:

Clint Capela- Questionable

Trae Young- Questionable

Aaron Gordon- Questionable

Dejounte Murray- Questionable (likely to play)

Russ Westbrook- Questionable

Raul Neto- Questionable

If Westbrook and Neto do not play the Wizards will only have 8 healthy players for tonight and 2 of them just joined the team this week (Len, Bell). So keep your eyes on Washington as there could be major value.

For today's picks, I am going as if everyone that is questionable will play.

Tonight's Point Guard /Shooting Guard Notables

Dejounte Murray DK $7 k | FD $7.6k

In uptempo games is when Murray really succeeds, and there is no better team to face than the Wizards. if Murray does not play then I love Lonnie Walker as SG on both platforms or Mills at PG on FD. UPDATE: Murray is likely to play.

Alec Burks DK $4.8k | FD $5.4k

He is back and playing 27-31 minutes a night, and has averaged just over 1 fantasy point per minute. In an uptempo game, I will take my chances here. I also like taking guys in some of the later games today because it gives me the opportunity to take advantage of late value IF some of the questionable players end up out.

Collin Sexton DK $7.1k | FD $8.1k

He is a little pricey for me on FD but I will take a couple of shots on him on DK. Especially if Garland comes off the bench again. Sextons usage has shot up without Garland in the lineup

SG Value Play:

Garrison Mathews DK $3.4k FD $3.9k

Tonight's SF / PF Notables

Jaylen Brown DK $8.6k | FD $8.3k

A little pricey on DK but I will still have some exposure to him since Tatum is still out. On FD I would definitely be using him, 8.3k is way too cheap with his usage and playing time vs a Cav's team that has struggled vs SF

Derrick Jones Jr DK $3.9k | FD $4.6k

This is a DK play, at 4.6 on FD I think I would go elsewhere. Jones is averaging .81fp/ min with CJ Mccollum and Nurkic out of the lineup and has got over 30 min in the last two games. at 3.9k I will take my shot. This is another late gameplay too, giving me a way to late swap if more value opens.

Aaron Gordon DK $7.4k | FD $7.8k

Aaron is in play on both sites IF he plays, he has been getting some run at PG and with the ball in his hands more he has been producing. If he doesn't play Fournier becomes a solid play that would end up in a bunch of my lineups.

Khris Middleton DK $7.8k | FD $7.9k

Giannis Antetokounmpo DK $10.4k | FD $11.3k

I like Middleton, Giannis, and Holiday but will likely play more Giannis/Middleton than Holiday. A high scoring game vs a team with no defense let's not overthink this one.

Tonight's Center Position Notables

Enes Kanter DK $6.2k | FD $6.5k

Enes Kanter averages 1.38 fp/minute over his last 10 games, and He's going to likely get 28 min. He could even get a little extra run tonight since Carmelo Anthony (He has played a little backup C since Nurkic has been out) can't really defend Mitchell Robinson. If Kanter matches Robinson's minutes he will probably smash his price tag.  

Clint Capela DK $8.5k | FD $10k

I love me some Clint Capela, but I likely wouldn't get there on FD, however, on DK... gimme. On Atl, Capela has averaged 1.42fp/min in comparison Andre Drummond has averaged 1.45 this year. Capela is playing like a legitimate stud. It may seem like point chasing, but he has been a monster on the boards while racking up steals/blocks and playing high 30's in minutes every night.

My Strategy Tonight on DK

Like Thursday I will be playing 50 lineups again. I'm not going to have a ton of exposure to the 4 pm pst games. I want to see what happens on the Wizards. There is a chance they only have 8 active guys and if they do I want to be able to get in on the value, with lower ownership is we don't know who is in or out prior to lock.

My current player pool: **Reminder this will likely change**

Kanter, Burks, Mathews, Anteokounmpo, Jones jr, Capela, Gordon, Aldridge, Middleton, Hunter, Sexton, Brown, Fournier, Hood, Murray, Rozier, Washington, Javonte Green, Kemba, Ennis, Randle, Holiday, Payton, Derozan, Smart, Young, Barrett, Vucevic, Cole Anthony, Lillard, Tristan Thomspon, Robert Williams, Bonga, Hayward, Robin Lopez, Alex Len, Biyombo, Portis, Walker IV, K. Johnson, Garland, Reddish

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Thank you for reading and if you have any question please hit me up in the chat @LineStarTyler

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