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- LineStar® Daily Dribble - It's a Leverage Game
LineStar® Daily Dribble - It's a Leverage Game
We are back, for another version of the Daily Dribble written by LineStarTyler.
Today's Slate
We have a very interesting slate today with 3 very high-scoring close games. The biggest spread is 6.5 in the TOR vs MIL game. That game also features most of the news we are waiting on (Kyle Lowry and Jrue Holiday). The other main question about today's slate is what will the SAC starting lineup be with Holmes and Barnes out tonight.
Article note: In writing today's article I am going to take the approach that both Lowry and Holiday are out.
Slate Injury Update
Kyrie Irving- Probable
TLC- Questionable
Lebron James- Questionable
Kyle Lowry- Questionable
Yuta Watanabe- Questionable
Jrue Holiday- GTD
Richaun Holmes- Out
Harrison Barnes- Out
Goran Dragic- Out
Anthony Davis- Out
Kevin Durant- Out
Tonight's Point Guard /Shooting Guard Notables
Dennis Schroder DK $5.8 k | FD $5.7
Schroder gets a +0.95% usage bump and a +3.68 FP pump with AD out. He also faces the BKN defense that appears to have more of a bullfighters strategy, where they jump out of the way instead of trying to actually stop the opposing team from scoring.
James Harden DK $10.6 k | FD $11k
You will likely have to play either Harden or Kyrie. The Lakers have also been beatable by opposing PG's lately and Kyrie has told Harden that he is the PG on the Nets now. Harden has posted double-digit assists in 9 of his last 10 games.
Cory Joseph DK $3.9 k | FD $3.8k
Joseph has played 29, 27 and 31 minutes the last 3 games. At about a .79fp/min output average I will have to take a look here. However, the last two games he has had a little extra run due to blow outs. So don't go crazy here but I see him as an interesting value piece who could be lower owned.
Tonight's SF / PF Notables
Khris Middleton DK $7.8 k | FD $7.3k
Middleton is coming off 3 straight bad games, without Jrue he gets a bigger usage bump than Giannis and I expect that to show up tonight. The Bucks have the highest implied total on the slate and I want to get some exposure to them and I would rather have Harden than Giannis so Middleton because an interesting option.
Pascal Siakam DK $7.6 k | FD $8.5k
Pascal has been on a tear lately, while I normally don't buy into strength I am here today. Mil has been beaten up at C lately (Siakam started at C last game) and is expected to be starting at Center again today. Although his price is a little high on Fanduel. If I am playing there I would rather pay up to Butler or Lebron.
Marvin Bagley DK $4.8 k | FD $5.2k
Nemanja Bjelica DK $3.8 k | FD (too expensive on FD)
I am putting both of these guys together because both of them intrigue me. Bagley much more so than Bjelica, because his minutes are more secure since he will likely start. However, Bagley only played 21 minutes last game which is a big concern, and If I hear anything about a minutes limit on Bagley I may fade him for Bjelica. Harrison Barnes has averaged 35 minutes per game this season, if Bagley and/or Bjelica gets major run they could break the slate. Trying to figure out what SAC rotation will be like without Holmes and Barnes could be the key to this entire slate.
Tonight's Center Position Notables
Hassan Whiteside DK $4.6 k | FD $6k
On Fanduel I would heavily consider fading Whiteside due to his ownership. HOWEVER, he averages 1.4 fp/min so your path if you decide to fade him will be hoping he plays limited minutes. This is possible, Bam is a small Center so Bjelica and Bagley could easily handle most of the work. On Draftkings at 4.6k, he is either going to be a must-own or he's going to kill your entire lineup, so play him with care. I have NO idea how the Kings will handle their rotation tonight. I highly doubt Whiteside will start, and if he doesn't start he can just as easily play 14 minutes as he can 26. Whiteside can put up points in bunches though so you have to consider him.
Deandre Jordan DK $4.9 k | FD $5.4k
Jordan has played a wide array of minutes lately ranging from 23 minutes to 37 over the last 5 games. He is a risky play due to uncertain minutes but he has a decent matchup and has a high ceiling. He is also going totally overlooked on today's slate due to Whiteside, because of his super-low expected ownership, and Jordan's ability to fill the stat sheet it has me interested in having some Jordan exposure.
My Strategy
Today's strategy all comes down to leverage. It's a 3 game slate, making ownership very important. As of now, it looks like Whiteside is going to be 50% owned on DK, and Giannis 50% owned on Fanduel. On both sites, I am likely playing Harden over Giannis due to ownership. I have both at very similar projections, so I will take the lesser owned player. For my Whiteside lineups, I will likely pay attention to ownership in the first game. If I have heavily owned players in the first game I will fade Whiteside in those lineups, but if I have low-owned players that do well I will eat the Whiteside chalk. Since I would already have leverage on the field with the low-owned players from the TOR/MIL game.
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Thank you for reading and if you have any question please hit me up in the chat @LineStarTyler
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