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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/28 | Mixing in Some Late-Season Strategy
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/28 | Mixing in Some Late-Season Strategy
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A six-piece Tuesday slate rolls around and it’s not looking like a bad little set of games. DFS-wise, we should have a decent amount of value to choose from to go along with a solid mid-range and a few star players worth consideration. Let’s dig in! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Celtics: G. Williams - Questionable
Wizards: B. Beal - OUT, K. Kuzma - OUT, M. Morris - Probable, D. Gafford - OUT
Heat: J. Butler - OUT, K. Lowry - Questionable
Raptors: G. Trent Jr. - Questionable, W. Barton - Doubtful
Cavaliers: J. Allen - OUT, I. Okoro - Questionable, D. Wade - Doubtful
Hawks: J. Johnson - OUT
Hornets: T. Rozier - OUT. G. Hayward - Doubtful, K. Oubre Jr. - Questionable, M. Williams - OUT
Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander - OUT, L. Waters III - OUT
Magic: K. Harris - OUT
Grizzlies: J. Morant - Doubtful
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, J. Alvarado - OUT
Warriors: D. Green - Probable, J. Poole - Probable, A. Wiggins - OUT, T. Jerome - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
💫 = Favorite Play
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
💫PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP
One of the marquee injury absences on tonight’s slate involves Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will be unavailable due to an ankle injury. Josh Giddey has not always come through with a great performance when SGA has been sidelined this season, but the simple fact is that the ball will be in his hands much more this evening than it usually is. He’s also coming in with some momentum after posting 47.75 DKFP against Portland on Sunday and 64.25 DKFP versus the Lakers on Friday. Giddey is back at home tonight where he has shot 51% from the field (46.6% FG% on the road) and he draws a slam-dunk match-up with the Hornets, who have ranked dead last versus opposing point guards (L10Gms). OKC is also fighting to hang onto the 10th seed (aka the final play-in tournament seed) in the West where they’re just a half-game up on the 11th-seeded Mavericks, so motivation should be no issue for Giddey and the Thunder tonight.
PG Dennis Smith Jr., CHA | DK: $7k, FD: $6.5k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP
Dennis Smith Jr. is poised to make his third consecutive start with Terry Rozier ruled out with a foot injury. The Hornets are beginning to limp toward the finish line of the season while dealing with numerous injuries. LaMelo Ball has been out since late February and when Ball, Rozier, Hayward (doubtful), Mark Williams, and Plumlee (traded) have been off the court this season, DSJ has handled a significant +5.79% usage boost along with +18.1 FP (per 48 min.). If Kelly Oubre Jr. (shoulder/questionable) also sits, DSJ’s usage could rise even higher. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out for the Thunder, the Hornets (+9) have a better chance to keep this game close. So, given low-to-mid 30s minutes, Dennis Smith Jr. would set up as a strong mid-range target in a game that has the fastest combined pace on the slate.
💫PG Tyus Jones, MEM | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. ORL | Cash & GPP
Ja Morant (thigh/doubtful) is looking unlikely to play this evening so we get to go back to a discounted Tyus Jones who owns some very enticing DFS salaries tonight. Jones has been an excellent spot starter for Memphis when Ja Morant has been unavailable to play. In 20 starts this season, Tyus Jones has averaged 32.6 Min/Gm, 1.13 FPPM, and 36.93 FPPG. He very well may be the chalkiest player on the slate but, given his strong floor and elite ceiling, he’s some scary chalk to fade.
Other Guards to Consider:
💫PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10k | vs. CLE | DK Preferred
PG Fred VanVleet, TOR | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred
SG Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. ORL | Cash & GPP
💫PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.3k | @ TOR | Cash & GPP
PG Malcolm Brogdon, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.2k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Luke Kennard, MEM | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. ORL | GPP Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
💫SF Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
At this point in the season, we really want to target players on teams that have something to play for. There are some noteworthy playoff seeding implications in this match-up between the Pelicans and Warriors this evening. The Pels, who have seven regular season games remaining, are seeded 8th in the West -- a half-game back from the 6th-seeded Timberwolves, which is the final guaranteed playoff seed. The Warriors are just ahead of the Pelicans at the 7th seed and they have six regular season games remaining. The Pelicans will be sizable +8.5-point road underdogs tonight, so if they hope to pull off the upset and extend their winning streak to six games, Brandon Ingram will need to show up in a big way. That’s what he has been doing lately -- over his last five starts, Ingram is averaging 29.8 PPG (20.8 FGA/Gm), 8.6 APG, 5.4 RPG, 1.52 FPPM, and 51.35 FPPG. This is a strong pace-up spot for the Pelicans (14th in pace) against the Warriors (1st in pace) and, while New Orleans is on the back end of a back-to-back, their starters didn’t need to play a full workload last night en route to a 34-point win over the tanking Trailblazers.
💫PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP
We’ll spotlight another Thunder option in their home game versus the Hornets tonight. Jalen Williams has developed into a primary scorer for the Thunder in the second half of the season and he could very well be a top one or two scoring option with SGA sidelined tonight. Williams has seen a solid +3.01% usage bump when SGA has been off the court this season and he’ll be in line for huge minutes tonight in a game that the Thunder really need to win in order to further secure a spot in the play-in tournament. “Team stacking” isn’t as common of a strategy in NBA DFS as it is in something like MLB or NHL DFS, but pairing Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey together makes for a strong correlation play on tonight’s slate.
SF/PF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. MIA | DK Preferred
Pending further injury news, there is not much standout value at the forward positions. But one guy that does seem fairly underpriced at $6,200 on DraftKings is Raptors’ forward Scottie Barnes. Barnes returned from a two-game absence on Sunday and racked up 35.75 DKFP in 32 minutes versus the Wizards. On the season, he has averaged 34.5 Min/Gm so perhaps he sees a bit more run in tonight’s game against Miami. The Heat are a difficult match-up given their slow pace and solid defense but Barnes did rack up 38.0 DKFP against Miami when they last faced each other this season. Barnes has also been more reliable at home this season where he has averaged +13.9% more FPPG. Both teams in this game could use a win to further improve their chances of earning a guaranteed playoff seed so, while it is not the sexiest match-up on paper for DFS purposes, it should be a close, hard-fought contest.
Other Forwards to Consider:
SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.4k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.8k | vs. ORL | GPP Preferred
💫PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP
PF/C PJ Washington, CHA | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7k | @ OKC | FD Preferred
SF/PF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. BOS | GPP Preferred
SF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.5k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP
PF/C Al Horford, BOS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.2k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred
💫SF/SG Max Strus, MIA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | @ TOR | Cash & GPP (Assuming he starts for Butler)
SF/SG Bryce McGowens, CHA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.7k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CLE | DK Preferred
It’s a tough match-up with Cleveland (2nd in def. efficiency) but given his recent success, Capela is simply too cheap on DraftKings at $6,000. He’s averaging an outstanding 1.40 FPPM over his last five games and he’s vacuuming up all the rebounds in that stretch with 13.8 RPG while posting 2.4 STL+BLK/Gm. He may not play over 30 minutes but if he can keep those elite peripheral stats up, Capela should be a fine option with plenty of 6x upside (on DraftKings). Somewhat surprisingly, this game also features a slate-high 239.0 over/under, and the game is currently listed as a straight-up pick ‘em.
💫C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.3k | @ OKC | Cash & GPP
Nick Richards should re-enter the starting rotation with Mark Williams taking a seat tonight. Williams is not injured, but the Hornets announced that they will be resting one of their three centers on a rotational basis for the remainder of the season. So Nick Richards will stand out as the go-to value center play of the day. He has averaged 1.08 FPPM as a starter this season and he posted between 26.75 DKFP and 42.5 DKFP in five of his last seven starts. Barring any foul trouble, at his $4.7k/$5.3k salaries, Richards should be able to coast to value in a game that will feature a ton of possessions and rebound opportunities.
Other Centers to Consider:
💫C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.1k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP
💫C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | @ TOR | Cash & GPP
C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6k | vs. NOP | Cash & GPP
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Jalen Williams OVER 20.5 Points | -104 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units
Jonas Valanciunas OVER 11.5 Rebounds | -117 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Stephen Curry MORE than 23.5 Points (Discounted "Taco Tuesday" prop available until 6:30 pm ET)
Clint Capela MORE than 11.5 Points + Assists
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!