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NBA Western Conference Finals DFS Preview
The NBA Western Conference Finals are set after Portland was able to outlast Denver in 7 games and Golden State survived the loss of Kevin Durant to eliminate Houston. Many people are still riding the DFS train right through the championship, so here's what to expect - from a fantasy perspective - as the Trail Blazers and Warriors get set to duke it out.
How Each Team Got Here
The Warriors are where they expected to be, even if it's not with all the players they thought would be here. Kevin Durant is likely out at least until Game 4 of the Conference Finals but the Warriors looked good winning without him at Houston to seal their 2nd round series. Golden State struggled at times with the Clippers in the 1st round, but are extremely familiar with this time of year.
The Trail Blazers looked nearly out of it at times vs. Denver, but rallied to win Games 6 and 7 to get to this spot. Portland dispersed of OKC in 5 games in the 1st round and has an energetic bench that could be the difference in these Finals.
Top Tier Players
When you get this far in the postseason, it's likely because top tier stars have guided the way. The Western Conference Finals is full of big name players, even with Durant out of commission for at least the start of the series.
Steph Curry (DK: $10400 FD: $15500 Y! $39)
The Warriors are undoubtedly Steph Curry's team again after the injury to Durant and he'll be the player most focused on by Portland. Curry shot at least 20 times in the last four games of the series vs. Houston and has 40+ fantasy points in three straight. Curry went for 32, 25, and 29 points scored vs. Portland in the three games he played against them in the regular season. Curry's usage also went up 8.33% and his fantasy points increased 7.75 with Durant out of the lineup during the regular season.
Damian Lillard (DK: $10800 FD: $16000 Y! $45)
Damian Lillard struggled at times in round two vs. the Nuggets but it was obvious the Denver game plan was not to let Dame beat them. That obviously didn't work, and in the process, Portland developed some nice secondary scoring options to be touched upon in a bit. Lillard is obviously still a top tier play though, and it's not like he was completely silent vs. the Nuggets, going for at least 45 fantasy points in 5 of 7 games. Lillard will shoot the ball 20+ times per game vs. Golden State, and his point totals vs. the Warriors during the regular season were 29, 40, 21, and 23.
Mid Tier Options
With Durant out of the lineup for the foreseeable future, Curry and Lillard are the only top tier options. That means this DFS series is going to be decided by mid-tier players, which there are plenty of and with huge, huge, upside.
CJ McCollum (DK: $9600 FD: $13000 Y!: $34)
CJ McCollum was the best player in Game 7 vs. the Nuggets, shooting 17-29 from the floor on his way to a 37 point night. McCollum showed ice in his veins on the road, something that will be huge at Oracle Arena early in the Western Conference Finals. McCollum went for 40+ fantasy points in four of the last five games in the Denver series but has actually struggled vs. Golden State this year, scoring more than 20 points just once in four regular season games.
Klay Thompson (DK: $8400 FD: $12500 Y!: $26)
Not to beat a dead horse with the Durant injury but it might be one of the best things to happen to Klay Thompson. The Warriors G production dipped significantly through most of the 2nd half of the year but he gets a 9 point fantasy boost with Durant out of the lineup. Thompson is a free agent this upcoming offseason and the return of Splash Brothers could get him the max deal he's been looking for. Thompson had 20 shots in each of the last two games without KD, and has gone for 40+ fantasy points in each. He had 30+ in two games vs. Portland this year, but also averaged just 12ppg in the other two.
Draymond Green (DK: $9000 FD: $15000 Y! $31)
6'7", 230 pound Draymond Green presents a much different matchup for Portland than the Nuggets' 7', 250 pound Nikola Jokic. That might actually favor the Blazers, as they went to a 4-guard lineup at times vs. Denver but it doesn't mean Green won't continue to produce. Green only averaged 8ppg the last two vs. Houston, but he scores fantasy points in a multitude of ways, grabbing at least 10 rebounds in the last five while dishing out at least 7 assists in 4 of 5. Overall, Green went for 40+ fantasy points in 5 of 6 in the Rockets series.
Enes Kanter (DK: $4400, FD: $11000, Y! $23)
The price of Enes Kanter was on the high side last time out vs. the Nuggets and likely will be again in the Golden State series. Kanter has battled through shoulder injuries vs. Denver, but still had 12 points, 13 rebounds, 39 minutes, and 31 fantasy points. Clint Capela had a high of 14 points in the entire series for the Rockets vs. the Warriors front court, but he also had double digit rebounds in four of the last 5 vs. Golden State. There's upside for Kanter at least.
Value Plays
Rodney Hood (DK: $5000, FD; $6000 Y!:$11 )
Watch the injury report on this one, as Rodney Hood is battling a hyperextended left knee the last two games. That being said, the Portland F was coming into his own this postseason, especially vs. Denver where he had 14+ points in 5 of the first 6 games of the series including a 25 point outburst in Game 6 that netted 32 fantasy points.
Seth Curry (DK:$2600 FD:$7500 Y!: $10)
There are no analytics to back this play, but wouldn't you expect to see Seth Curry launching the ball at every opportunity vs. his more popular, richer, brother? Seth was shut out of even a single fantasy point of scoring in Game 7 vs. Denver in 16 minutes, but he did have a 23 fp night in Game 4 vs. the Nuggets.
Zach Collins (DK: $5600 FD: $9500 Y! $12)
Zach Collins has a lot of upside for Portland vs. Golden State. He provides a great energy off the bench that was key for the Blazers, especially in Games 6 and 7 vs. Denver. Collins had at least 24 fantasy points in 4 of 5 vs. the Nuggets and had 9 blocks over the last two games against Denver. The big man scored 14 points in 2 of the last 3 games and will play a big part in this series vs. a team he definitely has a history against.
Andre Iguodala (DK $7000, FD: $10,000 Y! 14)
It's almost as if Andre Iguodala is on the Warriors team just for the playoffs and that only becomes exacerbated with the Durant injury. Iguodala has been here before, the 2015 NBA Finals MVP, and he's proving his postseason mettle lately with 33+ fp in 3 of the last 5 vs. Houston. Iguodala played 38 minutes last game with Durant out of the lineup and managed 11 field goal attempts. That should be the norm moving forward vs. Houston.
It's playoff season and it's a great time for DFS success. For more discussion, feel free to check out Carl Taylor (@dailydogsports) on Twitter for sports betting talk and DFS news.