Top NBA DFS & Pick'Em Plays 3/14 | Navigating a Tricky Thursday Slate!

Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Thursday's NBA Action!

Author

Ryan Humphries
March 14, 2024

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Pick’Em Prop Offers 3/14/24 💸

Our editors found the top Pick’Em DFS deals so you don’t have to! 

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Happy Pi Day! Depending on your DFS site of choice, you’ll be looking at either a six-game or four-game main slate. DraftKings will be including all six NBA games today onto their main slate, while FanDuel has elected to exclude the two late games in the 10 o’clock ET window (DAL/OKC and NYK/POR). For the sake of neutrality, only players from the four mutually shared games will be discussed in-depth in today’s newsletter. Bit of an annoyance, especially if you play on both sites, but it’s not the first time we’ve dealt with this issue this season. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

Note: Today’s newsletter is being written earlier than usual so keep an eye out for any potential injury additions throughout the afternoon.

  • Suns: E. Gordon - Questionable, J. Okogie - OUT, N. Little - Probable

  • Celtics: J. Brown - Questionable, K. Porzingis - OUT

  • Clippers: J. Harden - Questionable, K. Leonard - Questionable, R. Westbrook - OUT

  • Bulls: C. White - OUT

  • 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, D. Melton - OUT

  • Bucks: K. Middleton - OUT, M. Beasley - Questionable, P. Beverley - Probable

  • Wizards: M. Bagley III - OUT, R. Holmes - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT

  • Rockets: A. Sengun - OUT, C. Whitmore - OUT

 

DraftKings Main Slate Only

  • Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT

  • Thunder: None

  • Knicks: J. Randle - OUT, M. Robinson - OUT

  • Trailblazers: M. Brogdon - OUT, J. Grant - Questionable, J. Walker - Questionable

 

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Reminder: The DAL/OKC and NYK/POR games are only included on the DK main slate!

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Damian Lillard, MIL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. PHI

Most of the top guard plays in action today will be sequestered within the two late games (A.K.A. only available on the DK main slate) but if we’re looking at an appealing high-end guard who lands on the main slate for both sites, Damian Lillard will fit the bill. His volatility makes him more of a GPP target, but the upside he brings is undeniable. He has secured at least 54.0 DKFP/50.8 FDFP in three of his last five games and he has gone for at least 49.75 DKFP/46.9 FDFP in both games against the 76ers this season. The 76ers rank mid-pack when it comes to defending opposing point guards and, dating back to Jan. 30th (the last game Embiid played), Philly has ranked 27th in DEFRTG.

 

PG Fred Vanvleet, HOU | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.1k | vs. WAS

The Rockets have three good-to-elite contributors who are expected to either be out multiple weeks (C. Whitmore) or, likely, the remainder of the season (A. Sengun and T. Eason). Needless to say, there is some additional slack that will need to be picked up by the remaining/healthy key players if the Rockets hope to make a playoff push -- they currently sit four games back from the 10th-seeded Warriors in the Western Conference. In 185.5 minutes with Sengun, Whitmore, and Eason off the floor this season, Fred VanVleet has seen a +5.1 percentage point boost to his usage rate and a +5.14 fantasy point per 32-minute increase. FVV has been a great facilitator this season (8.0 APG) but his usage has been fairly pedestrian (19.1% USG%). If he begins to take on closer to a 25% USG%, while also playing nearly 40 minutes per game, then we’ll see some huge games out of VanVleet down the regular season stretch. And, of course, he draws an excellent home match-up against the Wizards (1st in pace, 30th in DEFRTG).

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | vs. LAC

Dosunmu logged 43 minutes in last night’s overtime win against the Pacers, so fatigue is a concern, but his presence will be needed tonight. Zach LaVine and Patrick Williams have been ruled out for the season for a while now, but now they’ll be without Coby White (hip/out) for at least tonight’s game, and possibly beyond. The injury to White will lead to a more significant role for Dosunmu as a primary ball handler, and he has also seen a +4.3 percentage point increase to his usage rate with White, LaVine, and Williams off the floor this season. The Clippers have ranked 25th versus starting PGs L20Games and they’re dealing with their own set of bumps and bruises, so there are no issues with the match-up for Dosunmu.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.4k, FD: N/A | vs. DAL (DK Main Slate Only)

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $8.4k, FD: N/A | @ OKC (DK Main Slate Only)

PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. WAS

SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo, NYK | DK: $7.1k, FD: N/A | @ POR (DK Main Slate Only)

PG Jrue Holiday, BOS | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. PHX (Preferred if J. Brown is out)

SG/SF Alex Caruso, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. LAC

SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | @ OKC (DK Main Slate Only)

PG/SG Dante Exum, DAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: N/A |@ OKC (DK Main Slate Only)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k | @ HOU

Both Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes have been ruled out today, so that should lead to Kyle Kuzma moving over to a temporary center role again -- however, he also has PF eligibility on DraftKings and is dual eligible at both forward positions on FanDuel. Kuzma operating as Washington’s de facto center could very well lead to more shots around the rim (easier baskets) along with more rebounding and shot-blocking opportunities. From a DFS floor perspective, Kuzma has been a model of consistency as of late -- he has scored no fewer than 40.75 DKFP/38.9 FDFP in nine consecutive games. The Rockets have also been vulnerable against opposing centers, allowing 1.37 FPPM to the position L10Games, and the absence of Alperen Sengun may only exacerbate the issue. Overall, Kuzma makes for a strong play yet again out of this $8k range.

SF/PF Corey Kispert, WAS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.3k | @ HOU

We’ll stick with the Wizards and look at Corey Kispert, who has taken on a more vital starting role. Kispert has started each of the last two games, scoring 22 points in both contests and handling significant minutes (36 min. @ MEM and 39 min. @ MIA). He’s averaged a commendable 0.92 FPPM as a starter this season and, if he’s going to continue to play 35+ minutes with the first unit, he sets up as a quality value option out of the $5k range on both sites.

 

PF Torrey Craig, CHI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. LAC

With Ayo Dosunmu taking over as the Bulls’ primary point guard (in place of the injured Coby White), and Alex Caruso shifting to the primary shooting guard, Torrey Craig projects to slide into the starting lineup tonight at small forward. Craig has missed some significant time due to injuries over the last few months but he’s been healthy for four games now. He has also started in eight games this season and has averaged a rock-solid 1.04 FPPM over his last five games as a starter. Unlike the rest of the Bulls starters, Craig didn’t log massive minutes in last night’s overtime game, so he should be pretty fresh even with the Bulls coming in on the second leg of a back-to-back. Craig’s minutes are going to be a little uncertain, but if he is on the court for around 25 minutes or so tonight, he’s likely returning value at these sub-$4k price points.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.8k | vs. PHI

SF/SG Paul George, LAC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.2k | @ CHI (Preferred if Leonard and/or Harden are out)

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k | vs. LAC

SF/SG Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $7.3k, FD: N/A | @ POR (DK Main Slate Only)

PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. WAS

PF/C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k | @ MIL (DK Preferred)

SF/SG Amen Thompson, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. WAS (DK Preferred - Preferred if starting again)

SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $4.2k, FD: N/A | vs. DAL (DK Main Slate Only)

SF/SG Matisse Thybulle, POR | DK: $3.9k, FD: N/A | vs. NYK (Monitor POR Injury Report - DK Main Slate Only)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. LAC

Among the four mutually shared games, the center-only eligible selection is pretty ugly. However, Nikola Vucevic is going to stand out from a floor perspective and, if fatigue isn’t a major issue (played 43 minutes last night), then there is certainly some upside to be had as well. Vucevic leads the team with a +6.7 percentage point increase with White, LaVine, and P. Williams off the court this season. The Clippers have also ranked 24th in DvP against centers over their last 10 games. On a bigger slate, Vucevic probably wouldn’t jump off the board for me, but if you need a strong floor/ceiling combo, he is a worthy player to consider tonight.

C Jock Landale, HOU | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.6k | vs. WAS

Landale has yet to earn a start this season, but he did play 26 minutes off of the bench on Tuesday when Alperen Sengun was out. As discussed, Sengun is potentially out for the remainder of the season due to a grade three ankle sprain, so Landale is going to continue to get some additional opportunities. Landale secured 29.5 DKFP/31.3 FDFP across those 26 minutes on Tuesday, and he is posting a sturdy 1.21 FPPM across his last five games overall. Landale should be considered for both sites but, on DraftKings, the popular value center play today is going to be Daniel Gafford (DK: $4.9k), but Landale serves as a worthwhile pivot if you’re looking to go against some chalk.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Deandre Ayton, POR | DK: $7.7k, FD: N/A | vs. NYK (DK Main Slate Only)

C Chet Holmgren, OKC | DK: $7.2k, FD: N/A | vs. DAL (DK Main Slate Only)

PF/C Al Horford, BOS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $5.9k | vs. PHX (FD Preferred)

C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k | @ CHI

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: N/A | @ OKC (DK Main Slate Only)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Devin Booker MORE than 18.5 FGs attempted

Kyle Kuzma MORE than 40.5 Fantasy Score

If you’re on PrizePicks, make sure you take advantage of the heavily discounted Harden Pi Day prop!

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!