Top NBA DFS & Pick'Em Plays 3/19 | Breaking Down Tuesday's Modest Five-Game Slate!

3/19 NBA DFS Cheatsheet

Author

Ryan Humphries
March 19, 2024

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A modest five-game NBA slate hits the docket on Tuesday! A handful of key injuries on the Wizards’ roster will open up some immediate value on this slate. Other primary news to watch out for is the status of Luka Doncic (hamstring/questionable) as well as the Timberwolves’ injury report as Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid are all questionable. The MIN/DEN game is the latest tip-off of the night, so if you have any of those three Minnesota players in your lineup, have a contingency plan in place in case any combination of those players are ruled out after the rest of the games have locked. Even though the closest spread of the night is 7.5 points, this should be a fun little slate so let’s dive right into it! Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Rockets: C. Whitmore - OUT

  • Wizards: K. Kuzma - Questionable, D. Avdija - OUT, T. Jones - OUT, M. Bagley III - OUT, B. Coulibaly - OUT, E. Omoruyi - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT

  • Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, T. Mann - Questionable, M. Williams - OUT, C. Martin - OUT, S. Curry - OUT, B. McGowens - OUT

  • Magic: None

  • Pelicans: H. Jones - Probable, D. Daniels - OUT

  • Nets: D. Finney-Smith - Questionable

  • Mavericks: L. Doncic - Questionable, D. Exum - Probable, J. Green - OUT

  • Spurs: Z. Collins - OUT

  • Nuggets: Z. Nnaji - Questionable

  • Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert - Questionable, N. Reid - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Top Point Guards/Shooting Guards 🏀

PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.9k | @ WAS

As most are aware, Jalen Green lacks a steady floor but he does bring slate-breaking upside to DFS lineups, especially when the Rockets draw a plus match-up like the one they’ll have tonight. With Alperen Sengun (likely out for remainder of season) and Cam Whitmore (knee/out) off the floor this season, Green has handled a team-leading +6.2 percentage points increase in his usage rate. Sengun and Whitmore have been out in each of the previous three games. In that span, Green is accounting for nearly a third of Houston’s field goal attempts and he owns a team-leading 28.2% USG%. The Wizards continue to lead the NBA in pace while ranking dead last in DEFRTG, and they’re down several key players today. These teams just faced each other five days ago, and Green went off for 37 points and supplied 51.5 DKFP/47.6 FDFP. The Rockets should be able to get a comfortable win here, but realistically the 10-point spread in their favor isn’t incredibly massive, so Green and the rest of the Rockets’ starters could very well end up playing their usual minutes. Houston also has some low-end postseason aspirations as they’re currently three games back from the Warriors at the 10th seed (play-in tournament) in the Western Conference standings.

SG Cam Thomas, BKN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. NOP

There are going to be more popular, and perhaps “safer” guard options out of this general price range, but Cam Thomas has shown some nice consistency and upside as of late, making him a strong pivot off of higher-owned players like Jordan Poole and Devin Vassell. Since returning from ankle/foot injuries 10 days ago, Thomas has sported a hefty 31.8% USG% and 1.20 FPPM average across five games while posting 26.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 3.6 APG across 34.3 minutes/gm. Thomas has been highly scoring-dependent for much of the season but the uptick in peripheral stats has been a nice boon to his recent DFS scoring. The Pelicans are 6th in DEFRTG on the season but they have ranked 29th versus shooting guards over their last five games, so this sets up as a quality individual match-up for Thomas. Finally, Cam Thomas has been a bit more reliable at home this season where he averages +5.5% more FPPG -- this will be his first game in front of his home crowd since February 13th.

 

PG Jared Butler, WAS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. HOU

With all of the injuries currently impacting the Wizards’ roster, there should be meaningful minutes to go around for a guy like Jared Butler. I doubt he starts, but I would imagine he will play around 24 minutes off of the Washington bench tonight. In limited action across 26 games this season, Butler has averaged a respectable 1.01 FPPM. The Rockets have ranked 21st versus reserve units L20Games, so it’s easy to see how Butler could return quality value at these dirt-cheap price points… assuming the minutes are there.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.5k, FD: $12.7k | @ SAS (Currently Questionable)

SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. DEN (Currently Questionable)

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.9k | @ SAS (Major boost if Doncic is out)

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.6k | @ WAS

PG/SG Devin Vassell, SAS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DAL

PG/SG Jordan Poole, WAS | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | vs. HOU

PG Tre Jones, SAS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | vs. DAL

SG/SF Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN | DK: $5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. DEN (Potential boost pending MIN injury report)

SG Jules Bernard, WAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. HOU

Top Small Forwards/Power Forwards 🏀

PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.1k | @ BKN

Zion continues to play at an extremely high level down the final regular season stretch. Across his last five starts, he’s rocking a 30.9% USG% with a 1.44 FPPM average, 28.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.8 STL+BLK/gm, and 50.5 DKFP/51.3 FDFP. This is a middling DvP match-up (BKN: 13th vs. PFs L20Games) and this game features the second-lowest combined pace on the slate. Perhaps Zion is due for a regression game but given his proclivity for those 50+ FP games lately, he should remain firmly on the DFS radar. The forward positions on this slate are also lacking in significant star power, which further increases Zion’s chances of landing in the optimal lineup tonight.

SF/PG Amen Thompson, HOU | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.8k | @ WAS (DK Preferred)

Amen Thompson sets up as more of a tournament play at his FanDuel price tag, but he’ll be difficult to look past on DraftKings where he remains under the $6,000 threshold. The rookie 4th overall pick has stitched together a quality 2023-24 campaign and recently re-entered the starting lineup due to injuries. In those three recent starts, he put up one dud, one so-so game, and one outstanding performance. The big game recently came against the Wizards five days ago where Thompson posted a 20/11/4 stat line with three steals in just 28 minutes -- good for 46.75 DKFP/47.2 FDFP. He is averaging 1.15 FPPM as a starter and has put up 41.3 DKFP/40.5 FDFP in up-pace games this season. Thompson may not end up playing massive minutes, but he stuffs the stat sheet quickly enough to where he could go off for another 40+ FP tonight even if he only plays around 28 minutes.

 

SF Justin Champagnie, WAS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.2k | vs. HOU

We’ll find more cheap Wizards value here with Justin Champagnie (twin brother of the Spurs’ Julian Champagnie). The fifth-year player appeared in 36 games in his rookie season with Toronto but has played sparingly in just 16 games over the last four seasons. However, he is receiving a real opportunity with this shorthanded Wizards team that has nothing to lose by showcasing some of these fringe players down the final stretch of their regular season. Champagnie played a then-season-high 25 minutes off of the bench three days ago against the Bulls and came away with 32.75 DKFP/33.9 FDFP. He then started the following game against the Celtics, and put up a commendable 29.0 DKFP/28.1 FDFP while playing 36 minutes. He projects to earn another start tonight and, assuming he plays mid-30s minutes again, he’ll be an obvious candidate to return 6x (or better) value. Many of these cheap Wizards players are going to be chalky, but I imagine at least one or two of them will end up being “necessary chalk” and land in the optimal lineup by the end of the night.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $9k, FD: $9k | vs. CHA

PF/C Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. HOU (Currently Questionable)

SF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CHA

PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.8k | @ WAS

SF/SG Trey Murphy III, NOP | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.4k | @ BKN

SF/PF Jeremy Sochan, SAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DAL (DK Preferred)

PF Corey Kispert, WAS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. HOU

SF/SG Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.9k | @ SAS (Only if Doncic is out)

PF/C Jonathan Isaac, ORL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.7k | vs. CHA (DK Preferred)

PF Patrick Baldwin Jr., WAS | DK: $4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. HOU (Preferred if Kuzma is out + Baldwin starts)

PF/C Anthony Gill, WAS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. HOU (Preferred if Kuzma is out)

PF/C Dominick Barlow, SAS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | vs. DAL (GPP Punt Play)

Top Centers to Consider 🏀

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.4k | vs. DAL

Up to this point, we haven’t spotlighted any Spurs or Mavs, but it would likely be a mistake to ignore this game given the fact that it easily owns the highest total of the evening (234.5 over/under). Wemby’s DFS salaries have steadily risen as the season wears on and he’s priced at a point where a ~40 FP game would really hurt lineups. However, his 70+ FP upside keeps him on the radar as a perfect GPP play on any given night. He’s coming off of a mammoth 33/15/7 stat line with SEVEN blocks while leading the Spurs to an overtime win against the Nets on Sunday and, throughout the season, his best performances have often come at home where he is averaging +10.4% more FPPG. The Mavs have been a tough match-up for centers (2nd vs. Starting Centers L20Games), which further places Wemby as a more suitable tournament play, but when he’s on top of his game, he’s about as match-up proof as it gets.

 

C Dereck Lively II, DAL | DK: $4k, FD: $5.3k | @ SAS

Lively is going to be another intriguing center option to consider in this game. He’s an inconsistent young player who has moved to a bench role in the last couple of weeks. However, he’s averaging a respectable 1.14 FPPM off of the bench this season, and he has played at least 20 minutes in three of the last four games while posting DKFP/FDFP scores of 26.5/26.6, 25.5/26.6, and 42.75/45.9 in those games. Despite the elite rim protection from Wembanyama, the Spurs are allowing the third-most points in the paint per game and rank 24th in rebounding percentage. Since Lively does play with the reserves, he shouldn’t have to contend with Wembanyama as much as the Dallas starting bigs (Daniel Gafford & PJ Washington). Lively is particularly interesting on DraftKings where he is priced at a flat $4,000.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12.1k, FD: $11.9k | @ MIN (Match-up boost if Gobert is out)

C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. NOP

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.9k | vs. CHA

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.1k | @ SAS (DK Preferred)

C Richaun Holmes, WAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.4k | vs. HOU (Boost if Kuzma is out)

C Luka Garza, MIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. DEN (Only if Gobert and Reid are both out)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Fred VanVleet MORE than 41.0 Fantasy Score

Cam Thomas MORE than 24.5 Points + Rebounds

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!