Top NBA DFS & Pick'Em Plays 3/21 | Previewing a Spicy Six-Game Thursday Slate

3/21 NBA DFS Cheatsheet

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Pick’Em Prop Offers 3/21/24 💸

Our editors found the top Pick’Em DFS deals so you don’t have to! 

Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ll be diving into a six-game main slate tonight with both DraftKings and FanDuel electing to exclude the nightcap game between the Suns and Hawks. Only four notable players (Giannis, N. Claxton, C. White, and A. Caruso) are listed as “questionable” on this six-gamer, so we won’t have to devote too much attention toward monitoring injuries heading into this slate. March Madness is underway, MLB Opening Day is a week away, we’re just over a month away from the NBA Playoffs, just under a month away from the NHL Playoffs, and The Masters is right around the corner. I’d say it’s a great time of the year for sports fans! As a reminder, late-season NBA is always a bit of a crapshoot so tread carefully over the final few weeks of the regular season schedule! Let’s get into tonight’s action! Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Kings: K. Huerter - OUT, T. Lyles - OUT

  • Wizards: T. Jones - OUT, M. Bagley III - OUT, B. Coulibaly - OUT, E. Omoruyi - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT

  • Pelicans: None

  • Magic: None

  • Nets: N. Claxton - Questionable, D. Finney-Smith - OUT

  • Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Questionable, K. Middleton - OUT

  • Bulls: C. White - Questionable, A. Caruso - Questionable

  • Rockets: A. Sengun - OUT, C. Whitmore - OUT

  • Jazz: J. Collins - OUT, J. Clarkson - OUT

  • Mavericks: J. Green - OUT

  • Knicks: J. Randle - OUT, OG Anunoby - OUT, M. Robinson - OUT

  • Nuggets: Z. Nnaji

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Top Point Guards/Shooting Guards 🏀

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | @ WAS

Despite the modest size of this slate, there are plenty of talented guards available to spend up on. Luka Doncic (DK: $12.7k, FD: $12.8k) feels like a no-brainer option at home in a smash spot versus Utah. But we’ll drop down a bit and give Fox the spotlight. Needless to say, Fox and the Kings also draw a stellar match-up against the Wizards (WAS: 1st in pace, 30th in DEFRTG). Fox put up a 30/5/6 stat line with three steals and a block the last time these teams faced (Dec. 18th). And, while it may not be a massive bump, Fox leads the team with a +3.3 percentage point boost to his usage rate when Kevin Huerter (shoulder/out) is off the floor. The Kings boast a hefty 124.3 implied team total this evening and, while they are on the second leg of a back-to-back, Fox only played 28 minutes last night en route to a 34-point blowout win over the Raptors, so fatigue isn’t a major concern.

 

PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CHI

We’ll continue to look to strike while the iron is hot with Jalen Green. Star center Alperen Sengun went down with a serious ankle injury four games ago, which will likely keep him out for the remainder of the regular season. Over the last three games, Green has really stepped up for the Rockets. In that span, he’s posting a team-leading 29.3% USG%, accounting for nearly a third of Houston’s shot attempts, and he’s draining 48.5% of his threes while averaging 34.4 PPG. There are several potential blowouts on this slate but this game owns a close four-point spread. Green is far from the most consistent player, and his DFS salaries are on the rise, but he could be in line for another huge night in his newly expanded role.

PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.2k | @ DEN (If he starts again)

In a bit of a surprise, Miles McBride got the starting nod (in place of the injured OG Anunoby) in the Knicks’ last game against the Warriors on Monday. I can’t say with 100% certainty that he’ll start again tonight, but it does seem like a strong likelihood considering he poured in 29 points on 9-of-13 shooting in that win over the Warriors. Oh… and in a game that did not go into overtime, McBride played an absurd 47 minutes on Monday. McBride is averaging 35.1 DKFP/34.5 FDFP as a starter this season so he’s going to be a pretty obvious go-to value option this evening if he lands another start.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.7k, FD: $12.8k | vs. UTA

PG Damian Lillard, MIL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.3k | vs. BKN (Preferred if Giannis is out)

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.8k | vs. UTA

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CHI

SG Cam Thomas, BKN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ MIL

SG/SF Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k | @ WAS (DK Preferred)

PG Jared Butler, WAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.7k | vs. SAC

PG Keon Ellis, SAC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.6k | @ WAS

Top Small Forwards/Power Forwards 🏀

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7k | @ DEN

Sometimes, the best ability is availability and Josh Hart certainly fits the bill in that regard. He played every single minute of Monday’s game and posted a 10/11/11 triple-double. Hart handles low usage on the offensive end but he’s a perfect utility man who fights for rebounds and dishes assists while often procuring multiple steals/blocks a game. He’s averaging 0.97 FPPM over his last 20 starts and if the Knicks (+9 underdogs) hope to pull off the road upset in Denver tonight, Hart is likely going to have to play massive minutes and stuff the stat sheet again.

SF/PG Amen Thompson, HOU | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k | vs. CHI (DK Preferred)

DraftKings still hasn’t priced Amen Thompson appropriately based on his regained starting role. Thompson is not playing massive minutes as a starter but he has been excellent on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.25 FPPM over his last five starts. The Bulls have ranked 25th versus small forwards L10Games and if he gets around 30 minutes again tonight, he’s a strong bet to return value on DraftKings. More of a tournament play on FanDuel but, as we’ve seen, Thompson is capable of providing 6x upside at that $7,900 salary.

 

PF Cameron Johnson, BKN | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.4k | @ MIL

Cam Johnson has a tendency to disappear in games at times but, with Dorian Finney-Smith out for tonight’s game, Johnson should re-enter the starting lineup and he makes for an affordable option out of the $5k range on both sites. It’s not a great match-up but the Bucks are on the second leg of a back-to-back and Johnson has averaged 0.99 FPPM in his last five games as a starter. I believe there is some decent 6x-7x potential for Johnson tonight.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.7k | vs. BKN (Currently Questionable)

PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.1k | @ ORL

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.7k | @ HOU

PF/C Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SAC

PF/C Jabari Smith Jr. HOU | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. CHI

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7k | vs. BKN (Only if Giannis is out)

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. NYK

PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | @ WAS

PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. NYK

SF Justin Champagnie, WAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | vs. SAC

PF/C Jonathan Isaac, ORL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NOP (DK Preferred)

PF Naji Marshall, NOP | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.5k | @ ORL (DK Preferred)

Top Centers to Consider 🏀

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | @ WAS

Sabonis will once again set up as an appealing high-floor option tonight. He poured in a triple-double last night despite playing just 28 minutes. As mentioned in Fox’s spotlight, the back-to-back factor isn’t a major concern since the Kings starters were able to grab some fourth quarter rest last night. The Wizards allow the most points in the paint per game and rank dead last in rebounding percentage so Sabonis should be in line for another huge game, especially if the Wizards can keep things fairly competitive into the fourth quarter. These teams have only met one other time this season and it ended with 274 combined points scored in a 143-131 Kings victory. Sabonis supplied a 28/13/12 triple-double and 68.25 DKFP/62.6 FDFP. Be on the lookout for a similar result tonight… barring an early blowout.

C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.6k | @ DEN

Unlike the rest of the Knicks’ starters, Hartenstein hasn’t been playing ridiculously high minutes, but the 28 and 25 minutes that he has logged in the last two games are the most he’s played in back-to-back games since early February. With those extra minutes, Hartenstein has come away with 39.0 DKFP/40.0 FDFP and 38.5 DKFP/42.3 FDFP in his last two games. The Knicks will need his size against the Joker tonight so it would seem reasonable to assume that Hartenstein could be in line for another 28-ish minutes this evening, and he has averaged 1.14 FPPM in his last five starts. The Nets’ Day’Ron Sharpe (DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.7k) would likely be the safest value center on the slate if Nic Claxton (illness/questionable) is ruled out but, for now, Hartenstein sets up as a quality affordable option.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $12k, FD: $11.9k | vs. NYK

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.2k | @ HOU

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.9k | vs. UTA (DK Preferred)

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.7k | vs. NOP

C Jock Landale, HOU | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5k | vs. CHI

C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.7k | @ MIL (Boost if Claxton is out + Sharpe starts)

C Dereck Lively II, DAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5k | vs. UTA

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays from me today but Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!