Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon 

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Get set for one of the more complicated slates of the season. Nine games are on tap for Monday’s main slate action and, as you’ll see below, the injury report is a complete disaster. Plenty of players have already been ruled out for tonight but there are also a significant amount of “questionable” players -- many of whom play in the later games on this slate. So, it’s going to be even more of a headache if we don’t have most/all of the injury news until after the initial games get underway. Beyond the injuries, seven of the slate’s nine games will feature double-digit spreads, so we’re likely going to see several blowouts tonight. It’s always advised to tread with a bit of caution on any late-season NBA slate but that advisory should be emphasized today. Let’s see if we can unscramble this mess of a slate and land on the right pieces. Best of luck! We’re all gonna need it!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, C. Martin - OUT, S. Curry - OUT, B, McGowens - Questionable, JT Thor - Probable

• Cavs: D. Mitchell - OUT, M. Strus - OUT, D. Wade - OUT

• Nets: C. Johnson - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - OUT

• Raptors: I. Quickley - OUT, RJ Barrett - OUT, J. Porter - OUT, C. Boucher - OUT, S. Barnes - OUT, J. Poeltl - OUT

• Celtics: D. White - OUT, J. Holiday - OUT, X. Tillman - OUT

• Hawks: J. Johnson - OUT, O. Okongwu - OUT

• Pistons: C. Cunningham - OUT, J. Duren - OUT, S. Fontecchio - OUT, A. Thompson - OUT, I. Stewart - OUT, Q. Grimes - OUT, S. Umude - OUT, T. Gibson - OUT

• Knicks: J. Randle - OUT, OG Anunoby - OUT, A. Burks - Questionable

• Suns: None

• Spurs: V. Wembanyama - OUT

• Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT, T. Jones - OUT, B. Coulibaly - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT, E. Omoruyi - OUT

• Bulls: C. White - Probable, A. Caruso - Questionable, D. Terry - Probable

• Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Questionable, A. Simons - OUT, M. Brogdon - OUT, J. Grant - Doubtful, M. Thybulle - Questionable

• Rockets: A. Sengun - OUT, J. Smith Jr. - OUT, C. Whitmore - OUT

• Mavs: M. Kleber - Questionable, J. Green - OUT

• Jazz: K. Dunn - OUT

• Grizzlies: D. Bane - Questionable, V. Williams Jr. - Doubtful, M. Smart - OUT, J. LaRavia - Questionable, J. Konchar - Doubtful, L. Kennard - OUT, L. Stevens - Questionable, Z. Williams - OUT, Y. Watanabe - OUT, D. Rose - OUT, B. Clarke - Doubtful

• Nuggets: N. Jokic - Questionable, J. Murray - Questionable, M. Porter Jr. - Questionable, A. Gordon - Questionable, Z. Nnaji - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Top Point Guards/Shooting Guards 🏀

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.8k, FD: $12.8k | @ UTA

This slate may be a bit of a sh*tshow but it’s never a bad idea to simply spend up on Doncic and take the nearly guaranteed 60+ fantasy points. At this point in the season, you really want to include playoff implications in your NBA DFS decision-making. The Mavs currently sit at the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, but they’re just a half-game back from the Suns, who hold the final No. 6 guaranteed playoff seed. Doncic has secured at least 60 DKFP in 11 of his last 12 games, and at least 62.2 FDFP in nine games during that same span. The double-double, triple-double, and three-point bonuses on DraftKings tend to make him a more appealing player there as opposed to FanDuel, but no player on this slate can beat his floor on FanDuel either. We have to love the match-up as well. The Jazz have ranked dead last in DEFRTG since March 1st and they’ve also allowed the most FPPM to point guards over their last 10 games. Doncic has averaged a whopping 1.92 FPPM in three games against the Jazz this season and this match-up owns the highest total on the slate (238 over/under) and is one of just two games with a single-digit spread (DAL: -8.5).

PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. POR

It’s impossible to ignore the sort of numbers Jalen Green has been putting up lately. Over his last five starts, Green has poured in 34.4 PPG on a 30.6% USG% to go along with 7.4 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.6 STL+BLK/gm, and he has averaged 54.1 DKFP/51.1 FDFP. Green may be in line for an even heftier workload now that Jabari Smith Jr. has been suspended for tonight’s game. In 150 minutes played without A. Sengun, J. Smith Jr., C. Whitmore, and T. Eason (all out tonight) off the floor this season, Green’s usage rate has climbed by +8.5 percentage points and he’s averaging +10.3 fantasy points per 32 minutes. Houston (-12.5) is one of many heavy favorites tonight, but if Green ends up playing mid-30s minutes again (35.7 minutes/gm L5Games), he could easily erupt for another 50+ FP night. Portland has ranked 29th versus starting SGs L20Games so there are zero match-up concerns.

PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. DET

McBride has started the previous three games for the Knicks and his minutes have been absolutely insane. He logged 139 minutes played of a possible 144 total minutes in those three games. McBride hasn’t been the most efficient player on a per-minute basis, but you just can’t ignore that amount of minutes. McBride struggled to get much going in the road game against Denver last Thursday, but he supplied 38.0 DKFP/35.9 FDFP against the Nets on Saturday and 37.75 DKFP/35.2 FDFP against the Warriors last Monday. Now he’ll draw a home match-up against a depleted Pistons team that ranks 27th in DEFRTG and 25th versus starting SGs L20Games. The Knicks (-16.5) are the heaviest favorites on the slate and should cruise to an easy win, but McBride could end up playing 40+ minutes again even if the game gets out of hand.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.8k | vs. DET

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.5k | @ SAS

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. POR

SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DAL

SG Cam Thomas, BKN | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.2k | @ TOR

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. WAS

SG Gary Trent Jr, TOR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. BKN

PG Scoot Henderson, POR | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.4k | @ HOU

PG Tre Jones, SAS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6k | vs. PHX

PG Payton Pritchard, BOS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.3k | @ ATL (Boost if starting)

PG/SG Marcus Sasser, DET | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.5k | @ NYK

PG/SG Javon Freeman-Liberty, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. BKN

PG Malachi Flynn, DET | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.9k | @ NYK

Top Small Forwards/Power Forwards 🏀

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.6k | @ ATL

I can’t say I’m overly attached to any specific forward play on this slate but Jaylen Brown makes enough sense out of the $8k range. He has been playing some solid ball lately and should be fresh heading into this game after getting the day off on Saturday. Spanning his previous five starts, Brown is averaging 1.36 FPPM and in 718 minutes played without Jrue Holiday (shoulder/out) on the floor, Brown’s usage rate has increased by +2.6 percentage points and he’s averaging +5.4 more fantasy points per 32 minutes. The Celtics (18th in pace) receive a nice tempo boost from the Hawks (5th in pace) tonight. Atlanta has also had issues defending small forwards, ranking 27th versus starting SFs L20Games. If the Hawks (+10.5) can keep this thing close, Brown has some solid 50+ FP potential this evening.

SF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.8k | vs. PHX

From a usage standpoint, Keldon Johnson has seen the largest uptick on the Spurs roster when Victor Wembanyama (ankle/out) is off the floor. His usage has risen +3.8 percentage points in 896 minutes played without sharing the court with Wemby this season. When Wembanyama missed back-to-back games on March 7th and 9th, Johnson supplied 22 points in both contests while posting 35.25 DKFP/33.6 FDFP (@ SAC) and 40.25 DKFP/35.7 FDFP (@ GSW). Johnson has also averaged +17.3% more FPPG at home this season and, since he should continue to play off of the bench, his minutes are a bit more protected than the Spurs’ starters in the event of a blowout (SAS: +12).

SF Kris Murray, POR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5k | @ HOU

The fantasy floor is low for a player like Kris Murray, but the minutes should be there in abundance for him this evening and he’s been playing well heading into tonight’s game. Over his last three starts, Murray is averaging 36.0 minutes/gm and a respectable 0.87 FPPM. One of Murray’s best games of the season also came against this same Rockets team earlier this month where he procured 39.25 DKFP/36.7 FDFP across 33 minutes played. I wouldn’t label Murray a “safe” option, but he’s shown the upside to return major value on these current DFS salaries, and there will be some usage to go around for a shorthanded Trailblazers team tonight.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10k, FD: $10.1k | @ ATL

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k | vs. WAS

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DET

SF Deni Avdija, WAS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | @ CHI

SF/PG Amen Thompson, HOU | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.8k | vs. POR (DK Preferred)

SF/PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | @ DEN

SF/PF Ochai Agbaji, TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.8k | vs. BKN

PF/C Jabari Walker, POR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5k | @ HOU

PF Dorian Finney-Smith, BKN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.7k | @ TOR

PF/C Jeff Green, HOU | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4k | vs. POR

PF/C Chimezie Metu, DET | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.9k | @ NYK

SF/SG Christian Braun, DEN | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. MEM (Pending DEN injury news)

Top Centers to Consider 🏀

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.9k | @ UTA

Thanks to their fast pace and aversion to playing sound defense, the Jazz are routinely a match-up worth targeting. Gafford has provided some excellent play for the Mavs since being traded over from Washington, and he just put up a 24/7/5 stat line against Utah four days ago, which resulted in 41.75 DKFP/41.9 FDFP. Gafford has started in each of the previous eight games, though he is playing only around 24 minutes/gm in that span. Fortunately, he’s been stuffing the stat sheet early and often. He should find success once again versus a Jazz team that has ranked 29th versus starting centers L20Games. Utah is also allowing a whopping 1.67 FPPM to centers over their last five games.

C Jock Landale, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.5k | vs. POR

Regardless of whether he ends up starting or not, Jock Landale should have a decent chance to earn around 28 minutes this evening. Since Alperen Sengun went down with his ankle injury, the Rockets have elected to move Jabari Smith Jr. over as their starting center. Now that Smith will miss tonight’s contest due to suspension, Landale and Jeff Green will see increased run at the five. My money would be on Landale getting the spot start tonight, and he is averaging a healthy 1.10 FPPM over his last 20 games. He’ll be a strong value candidate against a Trailblazers team that ranks bottom 10 in rebounding% and has allowed the 6th most points in the paint per game this season.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.9k, FD: $12k | vs. MEM (Currently Questionable)

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. WAS

C Deandre Ayton, POR | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.2k | @ HOU (Currently Questionable)

C Jusuf Nurkic, PHX | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.5k | @ SAS

C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | @ TOR

C James Wiseman, DET | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.6k | @ NYK

C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET (DK Preferred)

C Zach Collins, SAS | DK: $5k, FD: $6k | vs. PHX

C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.8k | @ HOU (Only if Ayton is out + Reath starts)

C Richaun Holmes, WAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.9k | @ CHI

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jaylen Brown MORE than 36.5 Fantasy Score

Daniel Gafford MORE than 14.5 Points + Assists

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!