Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon 

Welcome back for another electric NBA season, everyone! We are officially living in the “sweet spot” as sports fans with so many major sports now in full swing. So, for all of you multi-sport DFS nuts, it’s time to lock in!

I know many of you are seasoned NBA DFS vets so feel free to skip this portion of the newsletter. For those of you who are either brand new to the sport or need a quick reminder on what’s important, here is a somewhat brief rundown of what you NEED to know before getting serious about NBA DFS:

> Be available close to tip-off so you can monitor the latest news: Hey, life happens, and NBA DFS isn’t the most important thing. Sometimes you’re not going to be able to be around your computer or phone to make DFS lineup adjustments. But, in NBA DFS, you must try to at least keep up with breaking injury news, late scratches, and starting lineup changes, which are generally released closer to each scheduled tip-off. Since there are almost always going to be some later West Coast games, sometimes it may be beneficial to late swap some players around in your lineups after the earlier games have already begun. NBA is arguably the most hectic sport regarding the amount of impactful late-breaking news that comes out -- usually around 30 minutes before each game tips off. If you don’t believe you’ll be available to keep up with things leading up to games tipping off, consider either taking the slate off or playing light with your bankroll. Otherwise, you essentially risk burning your hard-earned money. I also recommend having mobile push notifications turned on for starting NBA lineups. On the LineStar app, you can do this by going to “Settings > My Notifications > Show Notifications > Turn on NBA Confirmed Lineups Notifications.” You can also turn on notifications for projection updates and important news.

> Pay attention to Vegas spreads, point totals, and individual implied team totals: Pretty simple here -- you want to have exposure to players who will be involved in competitive, high-scoring games. The closer a specific game is, the higher the likelihood that starters on both ends will play heavy minutes. Also, teams with lofty implied point totals (generally around 115+ implied points) can often provide more favorable DFS targets. Games with large spreads could also signal the potential for extra minutes and run for some bench players since those games are more likely to trend toward a blowout. This can routinely be useful for finding value DFS plays.

> Usage, Usage, Usage: The “usage rate” (or just “usage”) stat is defined as follows: (field goal attempts + possession-ending free throw attempts + turnovers) / possessions. Point blank, guys with high usage rates are going to put up the most shot attempts. This is usually going to be the single most important individual stat to pay attention to for NBA DFS purposes. Also, if a high-usage player is injured or off the court, it is crucial to see how that impacts the usage rates of his teammates. The “Usage Matrix” tool on LineStar can help you with all of the usage data you need to know or find out!

> Factor in NBA pace statistics: A team’s pace of play is a very simple but important metric to pay attention to. A fast-paced team that operates quickly, doesn’t bleed the shot clock, and puts up a ton of shots will lead to game environments with more scoring/shots, assists, and rebounds -- which are all of the most important aspects related to NBA DFS scoring. For that reason, we’ll want exposure to players in fast-paced games. This info is also useful when factoring in a fast-paced team being negatively affected by a slow-paced team and vice versa. For example, last season the Washington Wizards ranked 1st in pace while the Knicks ranked 30th (last). If these teams played each other, you could generally upgrade Knicks players since they’d be in line to see a massive pace boost and thus likely see an uptick in their overall shot attempts and peripheral stats (rebounds, assists, blocks, steals). Meanwhile, Wizards players could be downgraded since the Knicks would, in all likelihood, slow down the fast pace at which they’d be used to playing.

> Defensive Efficiency and DvP (Defense vs. Position): Some teams are just not going to be great defensively and/or struggle against certain positions. Be mindful of these match-ups and where you can take advantage!

> Using Projections Correctly: DFS projections aren’t everything, and sometimes I believe people rely on them a little too much. As our guy ZeroInDenver often says, “Projections are not a crystal ball.” However, a ton of aggregate data goes into projections and they can certainly help you get a general sense of how a player could perform in any game.

> Aiming for a Certain “x” Value Per Player Based on Salary: This is more important if you’re hand-building a single lineup, especially for cash game contests (double-ups, 50/50s, head-to-heads, triple-ups). This can be very “slate dependent,” but a general rule of thumb for NBA cash games on DraftKings is hunting for players who can safely return 5x to 6x fantasy points based on their DFS salary. For instance, if a player costs $6,000, you’ll want to feel confident that you’ll be getting 30-36 DKFP out of that player. Certain players can provide a safer floor for 5x-6x value (good for cash games) but don’t necessarily have 6x-8x “GPP winning upside” value. On the flip side, many players that do have 6x-8x upside often have a lower floor, so they’re more suitable for GPPs.

> Figure out a DFS process that works for you: No one will cash every day. If you play NBA DFS every day, there will be times when you completely bomb for several days in a row. It happens. Sometimes it just boils down to tough luck -- a stud player you have high exposure to gets injured in the first quarter, a game that you stacked that was expected to be close turns into a blowout, or guys get into early foul trouble so they ride the bench for much of the first half, etc. It is easy to get tilted with NBA DFS so be sure to constantly be prepared to tweak and fine-tune your DFS process and also just accept that bad breaks happen. A process that works for one person may not work for the next!

> Practice Smart Bankroll Management & Contest Selection: This is intrinsic when it comes to any DFS sport, but it’s worth mentioning briefly. Be smart with your bankroll. If you want to be profitable long-term, don’t go out and blow 50% of your bankroll on a single slate. I’d recommend a 5% to 10% daily spend but to each their own. Also, you don’t need to go out and max enter GPPs with 150 lineups to be successful. Figure out what contests work for you. I know some people strictly play GPPs, but I often recommend finding a good balance between GPPs and cash games in order to sustain long-term profitability.

Alright, I don’t want this intro to get too lengthy and I believe I’ve covered the core NBA DFS basics so let’s get into today’s slate!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

As usual, the NBA season opens with a two-game doubleheader that will feature a pair of high-profile match-ups. I’d recommend treading lightly on today’s season-opening two-game slate. We’ll have a loaded 10-game slate to dig into tomorrow so consider tonight’s doubleheader as a bit of an appetizer for what’s ahead! It’s also going to take at least a solid week or two before we have a more cemented idea of what starting lineups, rotations, usage rates, and team pace look like for each team this year so just exercise some additional caution early on in the season. Here’s to another great season for the LineStar crew!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Knicks: M. Robinson - OUT, P. Achiuwa - OUT, L. Shamet - OUT (waived), K. McCullar Jr. - OUT

• Celtics: K. Porzingis - OUT

• Timberwolves: None

• Lakers: J. Vanderbilt - OUT, C. Wood - OUT, C. Koloko - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | at LAL

A big trade went down between the T-Wolves and the Knicks about 3 1/2 weeks ago that sent KAT to the Knicks and Julius Randle plus Donte DiVincenzo to the T-Wolves. It’ll be interesting to see how that impacts each lineup, but we know that Edwards should comfortably lead the team in usage once again (32.3% USG% in 23-24 season). Edwards also handled a team-leading +3.8% USG% bump with Towns off the floor the last two seasons… but, of course, the new Timberwolves will fill in much of the usage that KAT leaves behind. We can only deduce so much from preseason performances but Edwards was letting it fly from beyond the arc in his three preseason games. After averaging 6.7 3PA/gm across 35.1 Min/gm last season, Edwards was attempting 12.3 3PA/gm across 26.9 Min/gm this preseason. We’ll see if that bleeds over into the regular season, but either way, Edwards is an appealing high-end guard on this two-gamer, and the T-Wolves should benefit from a sizable pace bump. Minnesota was 20th in pace last season while the Lakers were 3rd -- we can safely assume that the Lakers will once again operate at a fast tempo under new head coach JJ Redick.

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | vs. NYK

Derrick White does not get the sort of recognition as Celtics stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown do, but he was certainly a key cog in their championship run a season ago. White was often priced firmly in the $7k range in the later stages of last season, and his role shouldn’t change heading into this season, so we’re likely getting him at a moderate discount -- though, pricing tends to be fairly soft on most players to begin each new season. However, it is worth noting that White took on the largest usage bump (+3.72%) white Kristaps Porzingis (foot/out) off the floor last season. White provides rock-solid peripheral stats, including quality block/steal upside, he’s a reliable three-point shooter, and he should see a fair amount of usage in this game.

PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.3k | at BOS

Like any NBA slate, we’re going to need some value if we’re to fit multiple stars into lineups and McBride fits the bill today. He should see low-20s minutes off of the Knicks’ bench and he’s coming off of a season where he shot 41.0% from three-point range. McBride also looked good in the preseason, averaging 17.3 PPG, 3.7 APG, and 9.0 3PA/gm (37.0% 3PM%) across 28.0 Min/gm. Those 28.0 Min/gm from the preseason are likely on the high end for what he’ll play in the regular season (pending injuries) but the exodus of Donte DiVincenzo does open up some minutes/usage in the Knicks’ backcourt.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Jalen Bruson, NYK | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.9k | at BOS

PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. MIN

PG/SF Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.3k | vs. MIN

PG Jrue Holiday, BOS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.4k | vs. NYK

PG/SG Donte DiVencenzo, MIN | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | at LAL

PG/SG Payton Pritchard, BOS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. NYK

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. NYK

The soft opening night DFS pricing is very apparent here on Tatum, who spent most of last season firmly in the five-figure range. I don’t believe much analysis is needed here as Tatum just makes for an excellent floor play with quality 6x upside (at these salaries). But we will mention that, although targeting players facing the Knicks won’t be commonplace, for me at least, this season -- due to their slow pace (dead last in pace in 23-24) and solid all-around defense -- Tatum did average 48.0 DKFP/46.8 FDFP in five match-ups with New York last season. Good chance we get 50+ FP out of Tatum tonight with a decent shot at 60+ FP. Also, for what it’s worth, Tatum was hitting 38.9% of his three-pointers in the preseason on 9.0 3PA/gm on just 24.8 Min/gm and he was racking up solid peripheral stats as well, as he typically does. He’s not a major triple-double threat but he could come close to one this evening.

OG Anunoby, NYK | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.5k | at BOS

One thing that we know should carry over with the Knicks from previous seasons is that head coach Tom Thibodeau will play his starters for huge minutes essentially every single night. I have Anunoby projected for 36 minutes for the opener, and while he’s a better real-life NBA player who is valued for his defense as opposed to being an exciting DFS option, he can contribute in several ways and isn’t necessarily reliant on pure scoring. Despite a low 17.6% USG% last season, Anunoby still averaged a quality 14.7 PPG thanks to being an efficient shooter from both two-point and three-point range. But he can really boost his DFS output with steals and blocks. Anunoby averaged 2.1 STL+BLK/gm across 50 games last year and he was up to 2.8 STL+BLK/gm in four preseason contests on just 24.0 Min/gm. He’ll set up as a reliable option at these mid-$5k price points and it wouldn’t surprise me if he handles a bit more usage with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo out of the picture -- Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t going to soak up 100% of that usage.

SF/SG Dalton Knecht, LAL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. MIN

I watched a fair amount of Knecht in college ball last year, and the Lakers may have gotten a steal with him as the 17th overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft (no comment on the value of their second-round pick). As the youth say, Knecht “is a bucket.” The guy can simply score, and he was second on the Lakers in the preseason, behind only Anthony Davis, averaging 18.0 PPG (26.7 Min/gm) while hoisting up 10.0 3PA/gm -- he also averaged 2.2 STL+BLK/gm, which is always a nice plus for any player’s DFS upside. Now, Knecht isn’t going to be in the starting lineup just yet, and he’s far from a safe play considering he is largely scoring-dependent, but he may earn around 20 minutes off of the Lakers bench tonight and could provide a nice spark on the second unit. I’ll bite by taking him in some lineups at these current salaries.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k | vs. MIN (DK Preferred)

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.1k | vs. NYK

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.9k | at BOS

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5k | at LAL

SF/PF Sam Hauser, BOS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. NYK

SF/PF Jacob Toppin, NYK | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | at BOS

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.9k | at BOS

By two-game slate standards, we have some great options at the center position and we’ll waste no time gaining exposure to the newest Knick. This will be KAT’s first NBA game not in a Minnesota Timberwolves jersey, but I expect he’ll gel nicely with this highly veteran Knicks lineup. Towns is going to operate exclusively at center for New York, which should cause his rebounding numbers to rise drastically compared to the last couple of seasons in Minnesota where he played more of a stretch PF role and ceded many rebound opportunities to Rudy Gobert. Towns averaged just over eight rebounds per game the last two seasons (both w/ Gobert) but he averaged no fewer than 10.5 RPG over his first six seasons, and he averaged at least 12.3 RPG in three of those seasons. In terms of usage, he’ll likely handle a similar offensive workload as last year where he posted a quality 27.4% USG%, but I could also see him coming closer to a 30% USG% as the locked-in No. 2 scoring option for the Knicks. If things work out as expected, Towns may not be under $8k for the rest of the season so we’ll jump on him at these price points now while we can.

C/PF Jericho Sims, NYK | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.6k | at BOS

I’m probably never going to spotlight two centers on the same team in the same newsletter again for the rest of the season, and you probably don’t need to go this low at the position, but with Precious Achiuwa (hamstring/out) and Mitchell Robinson (ankle/out) unavailable to begin the season, there are some Knicks’ frontcourt minutes to go around. As noted, coach Thibs gives his starters heavy minutes but Sims does have a chance to rotate in for around 20 minutes off of the bench due to those frontcourt absences. For DFS purposes, he does average close to an FPPM (0.92 FPPM L20Games) and the only other healthy center on the Knicks roster is rookie Ariel Hukporti, who was the final pick of this year’s NBA draft. Again, you probably don’t need to go down this far for a center on this slate but if you’re looking for a low-owned dart throw, Sims could come through with some nice value… if the minutes are there.

Other Centers to Consider

C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.8k | vs. MIN

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k | at LAL (DK Preferred)

C/PF Al Horford, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. NYK

C Luke Kornet, BOS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. NYK

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

OG Anunoby MORE than 26.5 Fantasy Score

Jayson Tatum + Anthony Edwards MORE than 5.5 Three-Pointers Made (Combo)

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!