Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Thursday will provide us with a small four-game slate to sink our teeth into. These small slates can always be a little tricky but four games still provide enough action to make for some fun lineup building. Three of the four games also feature spreads under five points, so we should have some competitive match-ups ahead. Let’s get right down to business. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Pistons: A. Thompson - Doubtful (nearing season debut)

• Hornets: M. Bridges - Questionable, N. Richards - OUT, T. Mann - Probable

• Timberwolves: D. DiVincenzo - Questionable, M. Conley - Questionable

• Raptors: S. Barnes - Questionable, I. Quickley - OUT, B. Fernando - OUT, J. Walter - Questionable

• Jazz: W. Kessler - OUT, J. Clarkson - Doubtful

• Spurs: V. Wembanyama - OUT, J. Sochan - OUT, D. Vassell - OUT

• Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, W. Carter Jr. - Questionable, K. Caldwell-Pope - OUT

• Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, R. Hachimura - Questionable, J. Hayes - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. DET

Ball is coming off of his worst performance of the season against the Nets on Tuesday where he played just 24 minutes and recorded a poor 12/2/5 stat line. From what I can surmise, the limited minutes may have been due to coach’s disciplinary action following a recent postgame interview remark that Ball was fined for. Regardless, it wasn’t due to anything injury-related, at least from what I can tell. And, when he was out there in that last game, Ball accounted for his usual elite usage rate at 33.0%. So, we’ll look for Ball to put that dud behind him and bounce back against the Pistons tonight. The Pistons have ranked 17th versus starting PGs this season, so it’s a moderately solid match-up, and Ball went for 25/6/8 with two steals (50.0 DKFP/48.2 FDFP) against Detroit earlier this month. I’d look for a similar, if not better, performance out of Ball this evening. Also, if Miles Bridges (knee/questionable) is ruled out, that would increase LaMelo’s already elite usage (37.5%). In 204 minutes with Bridges off the floor this season, Ball has seen a team-leading +6.2 percentage point increase in his usage rate.

SG/SF Dalton Knecht, LAL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.3k | vs. ORL

Knecht has received all four of his starts when Rui Hachimura (ankle/questionable) has sat out this season. Considering the incredible last two games Knecht has had, in which he exploded for a combined 64 points on 66.7% FG% and a blistering 63.6% 3P%, I don’t believe his starting role is in danger even if Hachimura suits up tonight. Knecht clearly can’t sustain that level of shooting efficiency. And, if it wasn’t already, the secret is out on him so opposing teams will pick up on the fact that they need to defend him closely, especially on the perimeter. But it would seem unthinkable for the Lakers to relegate him back to the bench. This is the lone late game, so we won’t know the Lakers’ starting lineup until after all other games have locked, but there is clearly a ton of upside to be had out of Knecht, even against a tough defensive team like the Magic (2nd in DEFRTG).

SG Stephon Castle, SAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. UTA

We spotlighted Castle in Tuesday’s newsletter, noting that he was fourth on the team in usage rate behind Wembanyama, Sochan, and Vassell. All three of those players were out on Tuesday, and they are all out again tonight. While it wasn’t an efficient game, as Castle shot just 3-of-13 from the field, he did go on to lead the Spurs with a 27.9% USG% in Tuesday’s game while matching a season-high in minutes (35). If he can find a way to boost the scoring efficiency, Castle could easily return value on these modest salaries. We’ll love the match-up for him as the Jazz are above-average in pace (12th), 28th in DEFRTG, and have ranked dead last versus starting SGs this season.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Cade Cunningham, DET at CHA

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN at TOR

SG/SF Brandon Miller, CHA vs. DET (Boost if Bridges is out)

PG Chris Paul, SAS vs. UTA

PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA at SAS

SG/SF Malik Beasley, DET at CHA

SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr., DET at CHA

PG Isaiah Collier, UTA at SAS

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.2k | at LAL

I don’t love the fact that Wagner has broken past the $9k threshold on both sites but you can’t say it isn’t deserved. He has had to be the primary scorer and playmaker while Paolo Banchero (oblique/out) has been sidelined, and Wagner is the main reason the Magic have been able to win six of their last seven games. He had a bit of a disappointing performance against the Clippers last night but, over his last five starts, Wagner is up to a 31.7% USG% while averaging 1.39 FPPM and 51.0 DKFP/50.6 FDFP per game. It’s a positive match-up as well with the Lakers struggling against opposing small forward, ranking 22nd versus the position this season (via LineStar Team DEF tool). Wagner will profile as a strong floor play with a 60+ FP ceiling this evening.

PF/C John Collins, UTA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.1k | at SAS

Collins has been in the starting lineup for the previous five games while Walker Kessler (hip/out) has been unavailable. Collins has always been an efficient per-minute fantasy producer, but the additional minutes have cracked open an easier pathway to ceiling-type performances. In those five starts, Collins is averaging 1.25 FPPM and 40.6 DKFP/40.8 FDFP on 20.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 2.8 STL+BLK/gm. The fact that Jordan Clarkson (foot/doubtful) isn’t looking likely to play should push Collins into an even larger role. Clarkson generally plays off of the bench but regularly mixes in with the starters during games. As such, the Jazz will need some of the starters to pick up the scoring they lose by not having Clarkson available. Collins leads the team with a +2.8% USG% boost and +7.12 FP per 32-minute increase with both Kessler and Clarkson off the floor this season. Normally we aren’t looking to attack San Antonio with opposing bigs since they have allowed the 5th fewest points in the paint per game and are top 10 in rebounding% but Victor Wembanyama (out tonight) has been the main reason for that.

PF/C Grant Williams, CHA | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. DET

Grant Williams is far from an exciting DFS play but he’s being deployed as the Hornets’ starting center (PF eligible on both DK & FD) which gives him quality peripheral upside on top of whatever he does as a scorer. Williams has been involved offensively, putting up at least 15 points in three of the last four games while averaging 6.8 RPG to go along with a few blocks/steals in that span. Williams is only 6’6” so to say he is an undersized center would be an understatement but he has still found ways to return value on these low-end salaries in recent games and he scored 29.25 DKFP/29.4 FDFP in 26 minutes off of the bench against the Pistons two weeks ago. And he should be on the court for 30-35 minutes tonight, as he has been for the previous six games.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL vs. ORL

SF/PF RJ Barrett, TOR vs. MIN (Preferred if Barnes remains out)

PF/C Julius Randle, MIN at TOR

SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA at SAS

PF Tobias Harris, DET at CHA

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN at TOR

SF/PF Keldon Johnson, SAS vs. UTA

SF/SG Julian Champagnie, SAS vs. UTA

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.4k | vs. ORL

Center is pretty thin on this small slate so, even at $11k+ price tags, it may not be a bad idea to just take the highest floor/ceiling play in Anthony Davis. AD has just two games this season (out of 13 GP) where he hasn’t scored at least 50.0 DKFP/48.3 FDFP and the Lakers are catching the Magic on the second leg of a back-to-back. And, while the Magic are allowing the fewest points in the paint per game in the NBA, they’ve ranked 26th versus starting centers (via LineStar Team DEF tool) while also being a very average rebounding team. I don’t view this as a spot where AD will drop 70+ or even 60+ FP, but you can still feel pretty good about him ending the night with around 55-ish FP, which would likely be enough to land him in the optimal lineup on a four-game slate.

C Charles Bassey, SAS | DK: $4k, FD: $4.8k | vs. UTA

Zach Collins (DK: $6k, FD: $6k) should be in line for a third consecutive start in place of Wemby, and is by all means a solid-looking play for the price. But, as the backup five, Bassey has logged at least 21 minutes in each of the last two games and he supplied 12 points, eight rebounds, two blocks, and a steal (27.5 DKFP/29.6 FDFP) in his previous game. Bassey has proven he can stuff the stat sheet in a hurry even if he doesn’t play major minutes and we’ll like the match-up for him against a poor Jazz defensive team that is without their best shot-blocker and one of their best rebounders (Walker Kessler).

Other Centers to Consider

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR vs. MIN (Preferred if Barnes remains out)

C Jalen Duren, DET at CHA

C Zach Collins, SAS vs. UTA

C Moussa Diabate, CHA vs. DET

C Drew Eubanks, UTA at SAS

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some sharp recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

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In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!