Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Another NBA Cup slate arrives with eight games lined up on the Friday schedule! There are a few blowout concerns today with three games bearing double-digit spreads, but remember, on these NBA Cup slates, since point differential matters as a tiebreaker, the starters are more likely to handle a full run even in the event of a blowout. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but we also have what I believe is the highest over/under of the season with a 247.5 total in the Hawks at Bulls game. No major surprise there since those are the two fastest-paced teams in the NBA (with subpar/awful defensive play). Should be a fun night of NBA action so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Nets: N. Claxton - Probable, D. Finney-Smith - Probable

• 76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, P. George - OUT, K. Lowry - OUT

• Celtics: None

• Wizards: M. Bagley III - Questionable

• Warriors: S. Curry - Probable

• Pelicans: Z. Williamson - OUT, D. Murray - OUT, CJ McCollum - OUT, J. Alvarado - OUT, H. Jones - OUT, Y. Missi - Questionable

• Pacers: A. Nembhard - OUT, J. Walker - Questionable, B. Sheppard - Questionable, A. Nesmith - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, R. Rollins - OUT

• Hawks: None

• Bulls: C. White - Probable, P. Williams - OUT, T. Craig - Probable, L. Ball - OUT

• Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Doubtful, A. Simons - Questionable, S. Henderson - Questionable

• Rockets: None

• Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT

• Nuggets: N. Jokic - Questionable, A. Gordon - OUT

• Kings: M. Monk - OUT

• Clippers: N. Powell - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG James Harden, LAC | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.1k | vs. SAC

DFS pricing finally feels like it's tightening up in a lot of spots and I’m not sure if I’ll be overly invested in the high-end guards on this slate. That said, James Harden is going to draw some of my attention with Norman Powell (hamstring/out) missing a second consecutive game. In 112 minutes with Powell off of the floor this season, Harden’s usage rate has spiked a significant +11.7 percentage points. Harden owns a strong but not elite 28.6% USG% on the season, so if the splits with Powell off the court hold, he could flirt with a 40% USG% tonight. Harden should also maintain strong peripherals as he’s put up 16.5 Rebounds + Assists per game this season along with 2.4 STL+BLK per game, though his assist rate does take a hit since Powell is one of the primary shot-makers on this team. Regardless, this could be one of those games where Harden turns back the hands of time and puts up a vintage performance à la his prime days with the Rockets.

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. POR

We’ve been riding the FVV train for more than a week now and it has paid some nice dividends. Over his last five games, VanVleet is putting up 21.0 PPG, 6.6 APG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.8 STL+BLK/gm while averaging 1.35 FPPM and 44.6 DKFP/44.6 FDFP. His usage rate is on the rise and he has seen some positive regression in his three-point shooting lately as well. VanVleet also draws a plus match-up versus the Trailblazers who have ranked 23rd versus starting PGs (via LineStar Team DEF tool). And, though the Rockets are hefty 12-point favorites, as touched on in the intro, starters still tend to get heavy run late in blowouts in these NBA Cup games since point differential counts as a tiebreaker. VanVleet’s salary on FanDuel is probably about where it needs to be (and he remains firmly in play there) but DraftKings is still lagging behind a bit with a $7,200 tag on a guy who is currently performing like an $8k+ player.

PG/SG Quenton Jackson, IND | DK: $4k, FD: $4k | at MIL

This play will look better if Ben Sheppard (oblique/questionable) sits out again. Still, Quenton Jackson may have played himself into another start regardless after the performance he had on Wednesday versus the Rockets. With the Pacers down multiple guards, Jackson stepped into the starting lineup for the first time this season and went on to supply 24 points on a pristine 10-of-12 shooting to go along with three assists, two rebounds, two steals, and a block across 27 minutes -- a performance that netted him 37.0 DKFP/38.9 FDFP. Of course, we can’t count on him to sink over 80% of his shot attempts again, but if he does indeed land back in the starting lineup, we’ll like his potential to pay off his $4,000 salary in a game that owns a huge 237.5 over/under and a fairly close spread (IND +5.5).

Other Guards to Consider

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL at DEN

PG Trae Young, ATL at CHI

PG Steph Curry, GSW at NOP

SG/SF Zach LaVine, CHI vs. ATL

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS at WAS

PG/SG Jared McCain, PHI vs. BKN (Preferred if Embiid is out + Maxey remains on a minutes limit)

PG Josh Giddey, CHI vs. ATL

PG/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR at HOU (Boost if one or both of Simons/Henderson are out)

PG Jrue Holiday, BOS at WAS

SG/SF Amen Thompson, HOU vs. POR

PG/SG Delano Banton, POR at HOU (Boost if one or both of Simons/Henderson are out)

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI vs. ATL

PG/SG Kris Dunn, LAC vs. SAC

SG/SF Quentin Grimes, DAL at DEN

PG Kevin Porter Jr., LAC vs. SAC

SG Lindy Waters III, GSW at NOP

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.5k | at WAS

To no surprise, the Celtics top the slate with a monster 126.5 implied team total versus the inept Wizards who continue to play at the 4th fastest pace while ranking dead last in DEFRTG. So getting exposure to the core Celtics would seem to be a wise move today. In the first match-up with Washington this season, Tatum went for a solid 25/11/6 stat line in just 29 minutes while scoring 52.25 DKFP/49.20 FDFP in what was a 20-point blowout victory. It was a good game, for sure, but certainly not one that you’re going to feel ecstatic about in DFS terms when it comes to a $10k player. But Tatum is averaging 36.5 Min/gm this season and is up to 38.5 Min/gm over his last five. So, if he ended up playing his usual 35+ minutes in that last game versus the Wizards, he very well could’ve posted a 60+ FP result. To once again reiterate, we should typically expect teams to run up the score in these NBA Cup games to improve their point differential, so the starters should be out there for big minutes even in a blowout. As such, we’ll look for Tatum to push for a ceiling-type showing tonight with 60+ FP being a legitimate possibility.

PF PJ Washington, DAL | DK: $6k, FD: $6k | at DEN

Arguably the biggest injury impact on the slate involved the absence of superstar Luka Doncic, who is expected to miss a week or so with a wrist injury. Both sites gave the primary Mavs players a sizable price bump, including pushing Kyrie Irving to nearly $10k. But PJ Washington still piques my interest at a flat $6k on both sites. The Dallas frontcourt can be a frustrating one to predict as they have multiple guys who are great FPPM scorers, but the minutes tend to fluctuate drastically between them from game to game. However, in the one game that Doncic has previously missed this season (11/17 at OKC), PJ Washington exploded for 27 points and 17 rebounds across 28 minutes while producing a whopping 55.75 DKFP/52.40 FDFP. Washington held a 30.2% USG% in that game. In just under 60 minutes with Doncic off the court this season, Washington has taken on a +4.9% USG% boost and a team-leading +18.9 FP per 32-minute increase. There is a bit of risk involved here, but there is no doubt that PJ Washington could end up with another monster night.

SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | at CHI

It would probably be irresponsible to not spotlight a player from this Hawks/Bulls game given its colossal 247.5 O/U. De’Andre Hunter has missed most of the early season with a knee injury but he returned last Friday and has suited up in three of the Hawks’ last four games, only missing the front end of a recent back-to-back. Hunter started the first two games of the season before getting injured but has appeared exclusively off of the bench since making his return. He has gotten up to 25 minutes in his last two games and he is a player who has averaged a strong 1.20 FPPM in his five games played. Despite coming off of the bench, Hunter has been closing games with the starters in the fourth quarter, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he reclaims his starting role sooner rather than later. Either way, as long as he ends up playing around 25-30 minutes tonight, Hunter is a strong bet to pay off his <$6k salaries in this sort of fast-paced, high-scoring game environment.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. IND

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL at CHI

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS at WAS

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN vs. DAL (Preferred if Jokic remains out)

SF Bennedict Mathurin, IND at MIL

PF/C Draymond Green, GSW at NOP

SF/PF Trey Murphy III, NOP vs. GSW

SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU vs. POR

PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW at NOP

PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., HOU vs. POR

SF/PF Amir Coffey, LAC vs. SAC

PF/C Guerschon Yabusele, PHI vs. BKN (Preferred if Embiid is out)

PF Derrick Jones Jr., LAC vs. SAC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. SAC

Outside of a couple of dud outings against the Rockets, Zubac has been playing very well this season, resulting in a double-double average of 15.4 PPG/12.4 RPG. He has popped for a couple of 50+ FP ceiling games and also faired well the last time the Clippers and the Kings met (11/8) where he supplied 13 points, 15 rebounds, five assists, and two blocks (44.25 DKFP/43.50 FDFP) across 37 minutes. Zubac will likely play big minutes again tonight to match up with Kings’ star center Domantas Sabonis. Zubac is also second on the team, behind Harden, with a +4.3% USG% increase with Norman Powell (hamstring/out) off the floor. All-in-all, I like Zubac for a 40+ FP night at < 10% ownership.

C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | at CHI

The Hawks continue to split the center minutes fairly evenly between Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, but the former has really been playing at a consistently high level when it comes to stuffing the stat sheet in a hurry. Over his last six games, Capela has averaged a studly 1.43 FPPM. He’s typically only playing low-20s minutes, but that’s been enough time for him to return 6x (or better) value on his current DFS salaries on multiple occasions. One of those six recent games came against the Bulls where Capela supplied 20 points, 9 rebounds, an assist, and a block in 26 minutes (34.25 DKFP/34.30 FDFP). The Bulls have also ranked 29th versus starting centers (via LineStar Team DEF tool) so Capela makes plenty of sense at his current price points even if he’s not playing big minutes at the moment.

C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.5k | at PHI

ICYMI: After missing the last three games, Claxton (back) is probable to play tonight and is blatantly mis-priced on FanDuel. I'm not overly interested in Claxton on DraftKings, but he’s a near lock on FanDuel at $3,500, assuming he’s not facing any major restrictions.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. DAL (Currently questionable)

C Alperen Sengun, HOU vs. POR

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI vs. ATL

C Brook Lopez, MIL vs. IND

PF/C Robert Williams, POR at HOU

C Donovan Clingan, POR at HOU

C Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW at NOP

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some sharp recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!