Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

NBA Cup group play resumes today with a modest little five-game slate on the board! This slate may not be large in volume but we should have some evenly matched games ahead. No match-up on this slate has larger than a five-point spread and there is also a massive 245.5 total pinned on the Bulls at Wizards game. That isn’t a surprise as both of those teams are inside the top five in pace of play and both are also bottom three in defensive rating. Assuming there won’t be many/any late additions to the injury report, this slate isn’t too hampered with injuries -- as you’ll see below, most players who are banged up own either “out,” “probable,” or “doubtful” designations, so we can assume who will be available out of that bunch. But there are still a couple of “questionable” tags to keep an eye on which could impact the slate. Alright, let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Bulls: P. Williams - OUT, L. Ball - Doubtful, T. Horton-Tucker - Probable, J. Phillips - Probable

• Wizards: J. Poole - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, T. Prince - Probable

• Heat: T. Rozier - Probable, D. Smith - Questionable

• Rockets: Ja. Green - Questionable, S. Adams - OUT

• Timberwolves: M. Conley - Questionable

• Spurs: J. Sochan - OUT, D. Vassell - OUT, K. Johnson - Probable

• Jazz: J. Clarkson - OUT, K. Filipowski - OUT

• Lakers: A. Davis - Probable

• Suns: K. Durant - Probable, B. Beal - Probable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG/SF Zach LaVine, CHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.6k | at WAS

Even if this were a 10+ game slate, this Bulls/Wizards match-up would not be flying under the radar whatsoever. So expect multiple players from this game to end up with a newsletter spotlight today. The Bulls (2nd in pace, 28th in DEFRTG) and Wizards (4th in pace, 30th in DEFRTG) combine to make a prime high-scoring DFS environment, leading to a mammoth 245.5 over/under. Zach LaVine should command plenty of consideration, especially since he heads in on the heels of some impressive performances. Over his last four games, LaVine is averaging 26.8 PPG and 1.17 FPPM while playing no fewer than 33 minutes in that stretch. His peripheral stats haven’t been exceptional this season but he’s been a very efficient shooter, sinking 52.1% of his FG attempts, including a 44.0% 3P% on 7.3 3PA/gm. LaVine also has dual eligibility as a SG/SF on both sites -- those are two positions that tend to be the weakest on most slates, so the fact that you can place him at either of those roster spots is a nice plus. Even though scoring-dependent players can be more volatile than guys who can contribute heavily in all five stat categories, LaVine should be a strong floor play on this slate with a decent chance to pop for a ceiling performance, similar to his game against the Knicks on Nov. 13th (56.75 DKFP/54.4 FDFP).

PG Chris Paul, SAS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | at UTA

Chris Paul isn’t pushing for massive minutes in his age 39 season, only around 30 Min/gm, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a quality contributor and a nightly points/assists double-double threat. He’s been more productive on the road this season where he has averaged 1.20 FPPM (vs. 1.08 FPPM at home) and Paul should fare well in this match-up against the Jazz. The Jazz play at an above-average pace (12th) and are 26th in DEFRTG. They have also ranked 28th versus starting PGs L20Games. Paul just faced this same Jazz team five days ago and provided a 13/5/10 stat line with two steals across 30 minutes -- good for 39.75 DKFP/39.0 FDFP. I believe we can see that same sort of 6x potential out of him again tonight. Also, if you’re spending up on Wembanyama, Chris Paul makes for a strong correlating play.

SG/SF Gary Trent Jr., MIL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.2k | at MIA

Pending further injury news, this slate is a bit thin on value so we’ll need to be a bit creative for the cheap plays if we’re looking to load up on multiple stud players in the same lineup. Gary Trent Jr. stands out as a guy who could bring 6x value to the table at these low-end $4k salaries. He started the first seven games of the season for the Bucks but had mostly underwhelming results. However, lately, he has been a real spark off of the Milwaukee bench and has logged at least 24 minutes in four consecutive games. Trent has been lights out from beyond the arc in that four-game stretch, shooting 65.4% from three-point land. It’s also worth noting that Trent has been closing games with the starters in the fourth quarter of these recent games. We’ll need him to stay hot from three-point range since he doesn’t offer much in the way of peripheral stats but, for now, he’s firmly on the value radar.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Damian Lillard, MIL at MIA

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA vs. MIL

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU at MIN

PG/SG Coby White, CHI at WAS

PG Josh Giddey, CHI at WAS

PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, WAS vs. CHI

PG Keyonte George, UTA vs. SAS

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI at WAS

SG Stephon Castle, SAS at UTA

SG/SF Amen Thompson, HOU at MIN

SG/SF Johnny Juzang, UTA vs. SAS

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. MIL

In the two games since returning from a four-game absence due to an ankle injury, Jimmy Buckets has lived up to his nickname. He has poured in 30+ points in back-to-back games with DFS FP totals of 54.0 DKFP/52.5 FDFP (vs. PHI) and 57.75 DKFP/58.8 FDFP (vs. DAL). An overtime period did help boost his final stat line in the game versus Dallas, but he still had a big-time performance going in regulation. Butler, who is playing in his age-35 season, has been a pretty volatile DFS option the last couple of seasons, but it is nice to know he still has these huge games in the tank. We know he’s one of those guys who shows up in playoff atmospheres (hence another one of his nicknames being “Playoff Jimmy”) and I know many of the star players don’t care too much about this in-season tournament, but I would expect Butler to play with a little extra ‘juice’ because of it, especially on his home court with stars like Giannis and Dame Lillard in town. I also don’t imagine Butler will carry much ownership on this slate -- currently, he has an 11% pOwn% on DK & 13% pOwn% on FanDuel. For a player with Jimmy B’s upside on a five-game slate, that is quite low. It also doesn’t hurt that the Bucks have ranked at a subpar 23rd versus starting SFs L10Games.

SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.9k | vs. SAS

It’s been a bit of a rocky season for Markkanen, mixed in with a few games missed due to injury. But he has been trending in the right direction over the last week-plus and most recently popped for 34 points and 50.75 DKFP/47.7 FDFP against the Knicks. I could see him excelling in this match-up tonight. The Spurs have allowed the 6th fewest points in the paint per game, largely thanks to Victor Wembanyama’s elite rim protection. However, the Spurs have allowed the 2nd highest percentage of opponent points to come from three-pointers (42.5%). That could bode well for a sharpshooter like Markkanen, who has taken exactly half of his shot attempts from three-point range this season and he’s shooting 44.6% from beyond the arc. I believe around 40 FP is his floor tonight and he could very well pop for another 50+ FP performance if the peripheral stats are there to combine with what should be a strong scoring night.

PF/C Alexandre Sarr, WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CHI

Sarr was the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft and he has shown off the sort of upside that made him such a high lottery pick. Like any rookie, he’s more prone to having a dud performance, but Sarr has erupted for a pair of 45+ FP performances within his last five games. And it would be a mild shock if he fails in this spot -- Sarr gets most of his run at the five and the Bulls have ranked dead last versus starting centers (via LineStar Team DEF tool). Also, while I’ve been writing today’s newsletter, Jordan Poole (hip) was downgraded from “questionable” to “out” for tonight’s game. That should further solidify Sarr’s usage this evening in what profiles as the top DFS environment on the slate.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at MIA

PF/C Kevin Durant, PHX vs. LAL (Possible minutes restriction)

PF/C John Collins, UTA vs. SAS

PF Kyle Kuzma, WAS vs. CHI

SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU at MIN

SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS vs. CHI

PF/C Jabari Smith Jr. HOU at MIN (Boost if Jalen Green is out)

SF/PF Kyshawn George, WAS vs. CHI (Preferred if starting again)

SF/PF Brice Sensabaugh, UTA vs. SAS (Risky punt)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.2k | at UTA

Wemby looked no worse for the wear in a return from a three-game injury absence (knee) against the Warriors on Saturday. He played a typical starter’s workload with 34 minutes and supplied a solid 25/7/9 stat line with three blocks and a steal. With injuries to a couple of key players like Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell (both out), Wemby has taken on a heavier offensive workload lately. Over his last five starts, he’s up to an elite 36.6% USG%. He has also found some nice success in five previous meetings with the Jazz where he has averaged over five blocks per game in those match-ups. The Jazz have also ranked 25th versus starting centers L10Games.  If you can find some productive value options, going with the spend-up on Wemby makes plenty of sense on this slate.

C Jalen Smith, CHI | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.1k | at WAS

As mentioned, bottom-of-the-barrel value is a bit hard to come by on this slate. But Jalen Smith is at least intriguing in this fast-paced, high-total game. As the main backup center to Nikola Vucevic, who has not missed a game this season, Jalen Smith’s minutes are pretty hard-capped at around 15-17 minutes on a nightly basis. But he has been highly productive from a per-minute standpoint, averaging 1.20 FPPM this season and he is up to 1.29 FPPM L5Games. With both teams in this game playing at such a fast pace, there should be more DFS scoring opportunities for Smith packed into his limited minutes -- similar to the type of game four days ago when the Bulls played the Hawks (1st in pace). In that game, Jalen Smith needed just 15 minutes to put up 25.25 DKFP/25.0 FDFP. If we can squeeze around 20 FP out of him tonight, I believe we can be content with that if it means we can spend up on multiple superstars in the same lineup.

Other Centers to Consider

C Anthony Davis, LAL at PHX

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI at WAS

C Rudy Gobert, MIN vs. HOU

C Brook Lopez, MIL at MIA

C Walker Kessler, UTA vs. SAS

C Jonas Valanciunas, WAS vs. CHI

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some sharp recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!