- LineStar® Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 11/4 | All 30 Teams Hit the Hardwood Tonight!
Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 11/4 | All 30 Teams Hit the Hardwood Tonight!
Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Monday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Pick’Em Prop Offers 11/4/24 💸
Our editors found the top Pick’Em DFS deals so you don’t have to!
Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
With the entire league taking tomorrow off for Election Day, all 30 teams are hitting the court this evening. On FanDuel, we’re getting the full menu -- meaning a monstrous 15-game main slate is on the docket. On DraftKings, no games with a later tip-off than 8:45 ET will be included in the main slate, resulting in an eight-gamer. As I typically try to do in these newsletters, only players from the eight mutually shared games will be discussed in-depth but we’ll still be listing some “FanDuel only” options that are favorable for all of those late games. There is much to get into so let’s jump into the fire! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Note: Players who have yet to appear in a game this season and remain out will be excluded from this injury report.
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Questionable, P. Connaughton - Probable, M. Beauchamp - OUT
Cavs: C. LeVert - Questionable, D. Wade - Questionable, J. Tyson - OUT
Warriors: S. Curry - Questionable, A. Wiggins - Probable, D. Melton - OUT
Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT, M. Bagley III - OUT
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, A. Reaves - Probable, D. Russell - Probable
Pistons: A. Thompson - Questionable
Celtics: J. Brown - OUT, S. Hauser - Probable
Hawks: B. Bogdanovic - OUT, D. Hunter - OUT, V. Krejci - OUT
Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT, J. Konchar - Doubtful
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, N. Clowney -Questionable
Kings: K. Huerter - Questionable
Heat: J. Jaquez Jr. - OUT
Jazz: L. Markkanen - Doubtful, J. Clarkson - OUT
Bulls: Z. LaVine - Questionable, J. Giddey - Probable, P. Williams - Probable, L. Ball - OUT, J. Smith - Probable
Knicks: C. Payne - Doubtful
Rockets: S. Adams - Questionable
Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)
Hornets: B. Miller - Questionable, N. Richards - OUT
Timberwolves: R. Gobert - Questionable
Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, W. Carter Jr. - OUT
Thunder: None
Trailblazers: R. Williams - Questionable (would be season debut)
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, D. Murray - OUT, CJ McCollum - OUT, J. Hawkins - Questionable, H. Jones - OUT
Pacers: A. Nembhard - Questionable, A. NeSmith - OUT, I. Jackson - OUT, J. Wiseman - OUT
Mavericks: M. Kleber - Questionable
Raptors: S. Barnes - OUT, I. Quickley - Doubtful
Nuggets: J. Murray - OUT, A. Gordon - Probable
76ers: P. George - Probable (season debut)
Suns: B. Beal - Questionable
Spurs: T. Jones - OUT
Clippers: None
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.4k | at BKN
As you can tell by that loaded injury report above, there is going to be ample value on this slate regardless of whether you’re on DraftKings or FanDuel, especially if some of those key “questionable” players eventually get ruled out. So, paying up for some stars won’t be much of a challenge. In Memphis’ case, they’ll be without both Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart for a third consecutive game while backup guard John Konchar is doubtful. The sample sizes are still small in this young season, but in just under 70 minutes played with those three players off the floor this season, Ja Morant has seen a +12.5 fantasy points per 32-minute boost. He exploded for a 29-minute triple-double against the Bucks on Halloween night and has recorded a points/assists double-double in four of his remaining five games played this season. Morant, who has yet to play huge minutes this season, logged 30+ minutes for the first time in the previous game so perhaps he’s getting closer to playing the usual mid-30s starter’s minutes. This will be a quality spot for Morant, who should be the do-it-all guy tonight, versus a Nets team that is 20th in DEFRTG.
Derrick White, BOS | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.1k | at ATL
With Jaylen Brown (hip/out) sidelined for a second consecutive game, White should step in as the secondary scoring option to Jayson Tatum. Against the Hornets on Saturday (first game w/o J. Brown), White put up a season-high 17 FGA, including 13 3PA. He wasn’t overly efficient shooting the ball but still did enough to earn a solid 37.5 DKFP/36.6 FDFP. White’s usage rate has risen by a whopping 13.2 percentage points with Jaylen Brown off the floor this season. This is a stellar match-up for the Celtics as the Hawks rank 4th in pace and 28th in DEFRTG.
PG/SG Carlton Carrington, WAS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5k | vs. GSW
Kyle Kuzma (groin/out) has missed the previous two games which has opened up an expanded role for Carrington these last two games. He logged 37 minutes in the previous game (29.0 DKFP/32.8 FDFP) and 33 minutes the game before (32.0 DKFP/30.2 FDFP). The rookie hasn’t been too efficient on a FPPM basis but if he’s playing around 35 minutes, he’s a strong bet to return 6x (or better) value in this fast-paced Wizards offense (WAS: 2nd in overall pace).
Other Guards to Consider
PG Trae Young, ATL vs. BOS
PG Damian Lillard, MIL at CLE (Preferred if Giannis is out)
PG Cade Cunningham, DET vs. LAL
PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE vs. MIL
PG/SG Dennis Schroder, BKN vs. MEM
PG Josh Giddey, CHI vs. UTA (Preferred if LaVine is out)
PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA vs. SAC
SG/SF Buddy Hield, GSW at WAS (Boost if Curry remains out)
SG/SF Mikal Bridges, NYK at HOU
PG Keyonte George, UTA at CHI
PG Jrue Holiday, BOS at ATL
SG/SF Jaylen Wells, MEM at BKN
PG/SG Payton Pritchard, BOS at ATL
PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK at HOU
FanDuel Main Slate Only
PG James Harden, LAC vs. SAS
SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN vs. CHA
PG Tyus Jones, PHX vs. PHI
SG/SF Gradey Dick, TOR at DEN
SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, IND at DAL
SG Brandon Boston, NOP vs. POR
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | at ATL
If you’re paying five figures for any of the high-end players in these eight mutually shared games between DK and FD, it’s probably going to be Tatum. His usage has jumped +6.3 percentage points with Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis off the floor within the last two seasons and +7.4 points with Brown off the floor this season (Porzingis has, of course, yet to play this season). He is already rocking an elite 32.4% USG% across seven games, averaging 30.3 PPG, and attempting 11.3 3PA/gm. Tatum will be a sneaky play by no means on this slate but his box score could erupt tonight, especially if the Hawks (+10 home underdogs) keep things competitive deep into the fourth quarter.
SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | at HOU
Hart continues to be a high-effort player who simply contributes in a variety of ways. He’s averaging a points/rebounds double-double (14.2 PPG/10.0 RPG) alongside 3.6 APG and 1.4 STL/gm. While his usage rate is only at 16.6%, Hart takes his fair share of high-percentage shots and is shooting 76.9% from two-point range this season. The Rockets are an average rebounding team so there’s a good chance Hart turns in another double-double this evening and he’s simply a safe all-around option out of the mid-range.
SF Kyshawn George, WAS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. GSW
George should be in line for a third consecutive spot start and log around 32 minutes this evening. He has shot a poor 28.6% from the field this season but he’s been very active elsewhere, securing boards, dishing a few assists, and most notably, racking up plenty of steals and blocks (seven total steals/blocks in his two starts). George is a good bet to return value regardless, but if his shot begins to fall, he could really take off at these low-end salaries. Do note that Kyshawn George is only SG eligible on FanDuel.
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at CLE (Currently questionable)
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL at DET
PF Jalen Johnson, ATL vs. BOS
PF Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM at BKN
PF Santi Aldama, MEM at BKN
PF Tobias Harris, DET vs. LAL
SF/PF Cameron Johnson, BKN vs. MEM
SF/SG Bilal Coulibaly, WAS vs. GSW
SF/PF Tari Eason, HOU vs. NYK
SF/PF Taurean Prince, MIL at CLE (Boost if Giannis is out)
SF/PF Sam Hauser, BOS at ATL
FanDuel Main Slate Only
PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at LAC
SF/PF Kevin Durant, PHX vs. PHI
SF RJ Barrett, TOR at DEN
SF/PF Brandon Ingram, NOP vs. POR (Boost if Zion is out)
PF Pascal Siakam, IND at DAL
PF Julius Randle, MIN vs. CHA
PF Grant Williams, CHA at MIN
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. UTA
Vuc remains a consistently strong center option who is rarely going to burn you in lineups around this $8k salary. He’s often going to score around 20 points while corralling enough rebounds for a double-double. Vucevic is also draining 50% of his three-pointers on 4.7 3PA/gm and would see a sizable usage bump if Zach LaVine (hip/questionable) were to miss his first game of the season tonight. Per the LineStar Team DEF tool, the Jazz rank dead last against opposing center starters.
C Luke Kornet, BOS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4k | at ATL
Surprise, surprise… more Celtics value. Al Horford returned from a one-game absence on Saturday but moved to PF with Jaylen Brown out. That led to Kornet claiming the starting center position and he went on to post 33.5 DKFP/35.3 FDFP in 30 minutes of action against the Hornets. The Celtics should have the same starting lineup approach this evening and, if Kornet plays another 30-ish minutes, that would be plenty of time to pay off these modest price points.
Other Centers to Consider
C Anthony Davis, LAL at DET
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC at MIA
C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at HOU
PF/C Alexandre Sarr, WAS vs. GSW
C Zach Edey, MEM at BKN
FanDuel Main Slate Only
C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. TOR
C Jakob Poeltl, TOR at DEN
PF/C Naz Reid, MIN vs. CHA (Major boost if Gobert is out)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!