Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 11/6 | Value Galore on Wednesday's Huge Slate!

Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Wednesday's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Pick’Em Prop Offers 11/6/24 💸

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

With every team getting the night off for Election Day, predictably, the vast majority of teams are hitting the court tonight. A 10-game main slate resides on DraftKings while, as usual, FanDuel gets the full menu of 12 games with the inclusion of the two 10 o’clock ET tip-offs. So, regardless of your site of choice, it’s another jam-packed NBA slate! Plenty to get to so let’s hop to it! Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Pistons: None

  • Hornets: L. Ball - Questionable, N. Richards - OUT, C. Martin - Probable

  • Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, W. Carter Jr. - OUT

  • Pacers: A. Nembhard - Questionable, A. Nesmith - OUT, I. Jackson - OUT

  • Knicks: C. Payne - Questionable

  • Hawks: T. Young - Probable, B. Bogdanovic - OUT, D. Hunter - Questionable, D. Roddy - Questionable, V. Krejci - OUT

  • Warriors: B. Podziemski - OUT, D. Melton - OUT

  • Celtics: J. Brown - OUT

  • Lakers: A. Davis - Questionable, A. Reaves - Probable, D. Russell - Probable, R. Hachimura - Doubtful

  • Grizzlies: D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT, J. Konchar - Doubtful, L. Kennard - Questionable (would be season debut)

  • Spurs: J. Sochan - OUT, T. Jones - OUT

  • Rockets: T. Eason - Questionable, D. Brooks - Questionable, S. Adams - OUT

  • Cavs: C. LeVert - Questionable, D. Wade - OUT, J. Tyson - Questionable

  • Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, D. Murray - OUT, CJ McCollum - OUT, J. Hawkins - Questionable, J. Alvarado - Questionable, H. Jones - OUT

  • Bulls: Z. LaVine -Questionable, J. Giddey - Probable, P. Williams - Probable, J. Smith - Probable

  • Mavs: PJ Washington - OUT, D. Lively II - Doubtful, M. Kleber - OUT

  • Thunder: None

  • Nuggets: J. Murray - OUT, A. Gordon - OUT, V. Cancar - Doubtful

  • Heat: J. Jaquez Jr. - OUT

  • Suns: B. Beal - Probable

Late Game Injury Report (FD Main Slate Only)

  • Raptors: S. Barnes - OUT, I. Quickley - Doubtful

  • Kings: K. Huerter - Questionable

  • 76ers: P. George - Probable

  • Clippers: None

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. LAL

Morant continues to catch my eye at the high-end guard tier and he likely won’t receive a ton of ownership despite showing off a 60+ FP ceiling already this season. Through seven games, Morant owns an elite 32.8% USG% and is averaging 9.7 PPG. His minutes continue to climb as he has played 33 and 31 minutes L2Games -- both season highs. In three home games, Morant is also averaging a whopping 1.71 FPPM -- a notable uptick from his 1.40 FPPM across four road games. His DFS outlook also benefits from the continued absences of both Desmond Bane (oblique) and Marcus Smart (ankle) -- in 113 minutes with those two players off the floor this season, Morant’s usage rate has climbed by +3.3 percentage points and he has averaged +7.6 more FPPG per 32 minutes. Both teams in this match-up rank top-12 in pace and the Lakers own the 6th worst DEFRTG, so it’s no surprise to see one of the higher over/unders here (231.5) on the slate along with a narrow spread (MEM -1.5).

 

PG Chris Paul, SAS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | at HOU

Chris Paul has been on a nice run lately, and the 39-year-old veteran looks to be turning back the clock while averaging an impressive 1.38 FPPM over his previous four games. He has three consecutive points/assists double-doubles and fell one assist shy against OKC on 10/30 that would’ve made it four straight double-doubles. Jeremy Sochan (thumb) is also set to miss his first game of the season. Sochan has operated as the No. 2 Spurs scoring option, behind Wemby, so it’s very likely that Paul will pick up some of those shot attempts. This is already the third time the Spurs will be facing the Rockets, and I can’t say I love the match-up given Houston’s slow pace of play (29th in pace) and solid defense (10th in DEFRTG), but we’ll still look for Chris Paul to outperform these modest salaries, especially if the Spurs (+6.5 underdogs) keep it close into the fourth quarter.

 

PG Russell Westbrook, DEN | DK: $5k, FD: $6.4k | vs. OKC

We will be spotlighting both Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook in today’s newsletter and the year is, in fact, NOT 2016. With Jamal Murray (concussion) set to miss his third consecutive game, Westbrook should see another start in his place. Westbrook is shooting a pretty abysmal 28.8% from the floor, including 20.8% from three, but that has not stopped him from averaging a respectable 1.08 FPPM this season. Aaron Gordon (calf) is also going to miss his first start of the season. Gordon exited the last game after playing just four minutes and Westbrook went on to put up 21 points alongside six rebounds, six assists, and a steal. He’s going to be major chalk on DraftKings given the flat $5,000 price tag, but the potential for 8x value (or better) is too difficult to ignore. The $6,400 FanDuel salary is more on the nose, so I wouldn’t blame you if you decided to fade/lower exposure to a dusty Russell Westbrook over there.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL vs. CHI

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK at ATL

PG Cade Cunningham, DET at CHA

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL vs. CHI

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND vs. ORL

PG Darius Garland, CLE at NOP

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS vs. GSW

PG Jalen Suggs, ORL at IND

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA at PHX

PG/SG Jaden Ivey, DET at CHA

PG Scotty Pippen Jr., MEM vs. LAL

PG/SG Payton Pritchard, BOS vs. GSW

PG/SG Tre Mann, CHA vs. DET (Boost if LaMelo is out)

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI at DAL (Preferred if starting again)

PG TJ McConnell, IND vs. ORL

SG/SF Brandon Boston, NOP vs. CLE (Boost if starting again)

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

PG James Harden, LAC vs. PHI

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC vs. TOR

SG/SF Gradey Dick, TOR at SAC

PG/SG Keon Ellis, SAC vs. TOR (Preferred if Huerter is out again)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.3k | vs. GSW

Feel free to fire up an intriguing little revenge narrative here -- not that Tatum previously played with the Warriors or anything, but he barely received any meaningful minutes with Team USA’s Olympic team this past summer… which was coached by Warriors HC Steve Kerr. Even if there is no grudge held by Tatum in that regard, he is still in a prime spot to succeed as Jaylen Brown (hip) will miss his third consecutive game. Tatum is averaging a strong 1.54 FPPM this season but he has seen that figure bump up to an eye-popping 1.97 FPPM in the 91 minutes played with Jaylen Brown off the floor this season along with a +4.9% boost to his USG%. Given his 32.2% USG% this season, that means Tatum could easily come close to a 40% USG% this evening. And you know TD Garden will be bumping tonight with the likes of Steph Curry and Draymond Green in town.

 

SF/PF OG Anunoby, NYK | DK: $5k, FD: $5.9k | at ATL

Anunoby is on the heels of his two best games of the season where he scored 21 points in both contests while providing quality peripherals. The Knicks, who own a 116.5 implied point total, draw one of the best match-ups of the day against the Hawks, who have played at the 3rd fastest pace and own the 4th worst DEFRTG. It’s a massive pace boost considering the Knicks are dead last in pace this season.

 

PF Peyton Watson, DEN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. OKC

Watson is the most likely candidate to step into the starting lineup in place of the injured Aaron Gordon (calf). As mentioned, Gordon played just four minutes in the last game before exiting due to injury, and Watson ended up playing a season-high 31 minutes and scoring 29.25 DKFP/32.1 FDFP. He would figure to play similar minutes as a starter tonight and is an easy candidate to return significant value at these bottom-of-the-barrell price points.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/SF LeBron James, LAL at MEM (Boost if no AD)

SF Jimmy Butler, MIA at PHX

PF/SF Jalen Williams, OKC at DEN

PF/C Pascal Siakam, IND vs. ORL

PF Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM vs. LAL

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK at ATL

SF/SG Mikal Bridges, NYK at ATL

SF/SG Bennedict Mathurin, IND vs. ORL

SF/PG Amen Thompson, HOU vs. SAS (Preferred if either/both Eason/Brooks are out)

SF/SG Julian Champagnie, SAS at HOU

SF/PG Tristan da Silva, ORL at IND

SF/SG Julian Strawther, DEN vs. OKC

SF/PF Naji Marshall, NOP vs. CHI

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SF RJ Barrett, TOR at SAC

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, SAC vs. TOR

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12k | vs. OKC

Value is not hard to come by on this massive slate so fitting in a superstar like Jokic won’t be a problem. Per the LineStar Team DEF tool, the Thunder rank 29th versus starting centers, and Jokic has seen a +7.5% USG% boost in 55 minutes with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon (both out) off the floor this season. The Nuggets are off to a somewhat rocky 4-3 start and are in unfamiliar territory as +6.5 underdogs on their home court tonight, so look for Jokic to carry them, more so than usual, tonight.

 

C Daniel Gafford, DAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CHI

The Mavericks have split the center minutes largely between Gafford (18.2 Min/gm) as the starter and Dereck Lively II (22.6 Min/gm) as the big man spark off the bench. Lively (shoulder) is officially doubtful tonight and backup PF/C Maxi Kleber remains out, so that opens up the pathway for Gafford to play around 28-32 minutes tonight. Gafford has averaged an excellent 1.18 FPPM this season, the minutes just haven’t been there for many big box scores. He may not go for 40+ FP or anything but 6x value is certainly on the table at his sub-$5k price points on both sites.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at HOU

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI at DAL

C Karl-Anthony Towns, NYK at ATL

C Bam Adebayo, MIA at PHX

C Jarrett Allen, CLE at NOP

C Jalen Duren, DET at CHA

C Goga Bitadze, ORL at IND (Preferred if starting again)

C Zach Edey, MEM vs. LAL

C Neemias Queta, BOS vs. GSW (Preferred if starting again)

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C/PF Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. TOR

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jayson Tatum MORE than 51.0 Fantasy Score

Nikola Jokic MORE than 58.0 Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!