Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 12/3 | Locating Exploitable Match-Ups!

Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Today's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Pick’Em Prop Offers 12/3/24 💸

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A busy NBA Tuesday arrives with 11 games on the board! DraftKings will be excluding the three late games in the 10 o’clock ET window from their main slate while FanDuel will include all games. As far as a slate of this size goes, the injury report isn’t too chaotic but there are certainly some big-time players who are either out or questionable for tonight’s action. Let’s lock in and see what we can cook up today. Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

  • 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, A. Drummond - OUT, C. Martin - Probable, K. Lowry - Probable, R. Jackson - Probable

  • Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Bridges - OUT, M. Williams - Questionable (would be season debut), T. Mann - OUT

  • Wizards: K. Kuzma - OUT

  • Cavs: T. Jerome - Questionable, D. Wade - Questionable

  • Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, T. Prince - Probable

  • Pistons: None

  • Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, G. Harris - OUT

  • Knicks: None

  • Pacers: A. Nembhard - Questionable, B. Sheppard - OUT, A. Nesmith - OUT

  • Raptors: I. Quickley - OUT, G. Dick - Questionable

  • Jazz: J. Clarkson - OUT, K. Filipowski - OUT, M. Potter - Questionable

  • Thunder: C. Holmgren - OUT, A. Caruso - OUT, O. Dieng - OUT

  • Grizzlies: Z. Edey - OUT, V. Williams Jr. - OUT

  • Mavs: N. Marshall - OUT, D. Lively II - Questionable, K. Thompson - Questionable

  • Spurs: J. Sochan - Probable, T. Jones - OUT

  • Suns: J. Nurkic - OUT

 

Late Game Injury Report (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

  • Warriors: S. Curry - Probable, D. Green - Doubtful

  • Nuggets: A. Gordon - Probable, P. Watson - Probable

  • Rockets: None

  • Kings: K. Huerter - Questionable, T. Lyles - OUT

  • Trailblazers: R. Williams - OUT, D. Clingan - OUT, S. Henderson - Questionable

  • Clippers: K. Porter Jr. - OUT, K. Brown - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.1k | vs. IND

Scottie Barnes has been cooking ever since he returned from a right orbital fracture injury which held him out 11 games. Over his last five games, Barnes is averaging an outstanding 1.51 FPPM and 53.0 DKFP/49.8 FDFP. He’s stuffing the stat sheet and posted a triple-double two games ago while falling just one assist shy of another TD in his last start. This game owns a lofty 237.5 O/U and Barnes should enjoy this match-up with the Pacers who are 6th in pace and 25th in DEFRTG. Barnes is firmly in play at his FanDuel salary but his DraftKings salary has unexplainably decreased despite his high level of play.

 

SG/SF Brandon Miller, CHA | DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. PHI

The Hornets are down multiple key offensive weapons -- superstar LaMelo Ball (calf) will miss a third consecutive game and Miles Bridges (knee) will be missing his seventh game in a row. Not to mention Tre Mann (back), who has been a nice spark off the bench (14.1 PPG), is also out for a fifth straight game. With those three players off the floor this season (along with Grant Williams, who is out for the season with a torn ACL), Miller’s usage rate has spiked a team-high +8.5 percentage points. With LaMelo out these last two games, Miller has posted monstrous usage rates of 40.7% and 38.0% while hoisting a combined 55 shots. This game is pinned with a low 210.5 O/U, the Hornets have just a 103.0 implied team total, and Miller hasn’t been incredibly efficient with his shot attempts this season, but you just can’t ignore a guy who has a strong chance to operate with a ~40% usage rate. It also doesn’t hurt that the 76ers have ranked dead last versus starting SGs L10Games (via LineStar Team DEF tool). Miller’s DFS salaries are on the rise but he could easily go for 50+ FP tonight.

 

PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, WAS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.8k | at CLE

Brogdon missed the first 11 games of the season while recovering from thumb surgery. His minutes have been held in check but he finally cracked the 30-minute threshold in the Wizard’s last game, and he responded with a 29/11/3 stat line while netting 51.25 DKFP/48.7 FDFP. We know Brogdon can erupt for these types of games, and he’s averaging 1.36 FPPM L5Games, but it’s all about whether or not the Wizards will give him a typical starter’s minutes. There will be some risk attached to him today -- along with minutes uncertainty, the Wizards are massive 16-point road underdogs to a far superior Cavaliers team. But it doesn’t hurt Brogdon’s potential upside that Kyle Kuzma (ribs) will miss a second consecutive game. Brogdon, of course, had the monster performance with Kuzma sidelined on Saturday and he has handled the second-highest usage increase on the team with Kuzma off the floor.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL vs. MEM

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC vs. UTA

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE vs. WAS

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI at CHA

PG/SG Jordan Poole, WAS at CLE

PG Chris Paul, SAS at PHX

SG Devin Vassell, SAS at PHX

PG/SG Marcus Smart, MEM at DAL

PG Vasilije Micic, CHA vs. PHI

PG/SG Cason Wallace, OKC vs. UTA

PG KJ Simpson, CHA vs. PHI

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

PG James Harden, LAC vs. POR

PG Jamal Murray, DEN vs. GSW

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU at SAC

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC vs. HOU (Preferred if starting again)

SG/SF Brandin Podziemski, GSW at DEN

SG/SF Terance Mann, LAC vs. POR

 

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF RJ Barrett, TOR | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. IND

Barrett has had to step up for some injured Raptors this season and, while his floor can be low relative to his current price points, he’s also a strong candidate to drop 50+ FP in most match-ups. Barrett just went for 57.25 DKFP/52.3 FDFP against this Pacers team a couple of weeks back. Barrett has also been at his best at home where he’s averaging a whopping 49.4 DKFP/gm and 1.43 FPPM in seven home games (vs. 38.9 DKFP/gm and 1.14 FPPM in 11 road games).

 

PF Santi Aldama, MEM | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | at DAL

This Grizz/Mavs game carries a massive 244 O/U (highest on the slate) and a narrow four-point spread, so it would make sense to target some guys here. Santi Aldama has been playing off of the bench lately, but that hasn’t exactly hurt his DFS production. He has scored at least 32.5 DKFP/31.8 FDFP in four of his last five games while averaging an impressive 1.33 FPPM in that span. The fact that he’ll play off of the bench may also work in his favor this evening as the Mavericks have ranked dead last versus reserves L20Games.

 

SF/SG Jaylen Wells, MEM | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.5k | at DAL

We’ll stay in this same game and spotlight a potential value play in Jaylen Wells, who could be a nice pivot away from some of the chalkier cheap forward plays on this slate. Wells typically plays mid-20s minutes as a starter and has recently upped his production for a quality 1.06 FPPM L5Games. He had a huge spike performance recently against Chicago (43.0 DKFP/39.8 FDFP), which is inflating that recent FPPM average, but he has also cleared at least 23.0 DKFP/20.7 FDFP in three consecutive games. And it is nice to know that he is capable of much more than that. Both of these teams rank top 10 in pace so there should be plenty of possessions and DFS scoring opportunities to go around, so Wells should stay on the radar if you’re searching for a cheap play who shouldn’t carry much ownership.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL at DET

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE vs. WAS

PF Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM at DAL

PF/C John Collins, UTA at OKC

PF/C Guerschon Yabusele, PHI at CHA

PF/C Alexandre Sarr, WAS at CLE

SF/SG Quentin Grimes, DAL vs. MEM (Preferred if K. Thompson remains out)

PF/C Brandon Clarke, MEM at DAL

PF Tidjane Salaun, CHA vs. PHI

PF/C Oso Ighodaro, PHX vs. SAS

SF Brice Sensabaugh, UTA at OKC

PF Simone Fontecchio, DET vs. MIL

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SF/SG Amen Thompson, HOU at SAC

SF/PF Deni Avdija, POR at LAC

SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW at DEN

PF/C Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW at DEN

 

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. UTA

Hartenstein is a perfectly fine play on FanDuel, but the $7,300 tag on DraftKings makes him a standout value. He has averaged 42.6 DKFP and 1.36 FPPM in his five games with the Thunder this season. This is also a promising match-up against a Jazz team that is 29th versus starting centers L20Games and 29th in overall DEFRTG.

 

C Jonas Valanciunas, WAS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.7k | at CLE

Valanciunas got the start in the last game (Alex Sarr moved to PF w/ Kuzma out) to counter the frontcourt size of the Bucks, and we’ll see if the Wizards elect do the same thing tonight against the two Cavs bigs (Jarrett Allen & Evan Mobley). J-Val ended up playing a season-high 31 minutes on Saturday. He has averaged an excellent 1.32 FPPM on the season so if he gets another shot at around 30 minutes, he could return some major value… as long as the Wizards can make this into a competitive game.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Victor Wembanyama, SAS at PHX

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR vs. IND

C Jarrett Allen, CLE vs. WAS

C Walker Kessler, UTA at OKC

C Daniel Gafford, DAL vs. MEM (Preferred if D. Lively II is out)

C Goga Bitadze, ORL at NYK

C Moritz Wagner, ORL at NYK

C Mason Plumlee, PHX vs. SAS

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

C Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. GSW

C Alperen Sengun, HOU at SAC

C Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. POR

C Deandre Ayton, POR at LAC

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Santi Aldama MORE than 15.5 Points + Rebounds

Jabari Smith Jr. MORE than 22.5 Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!