Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A nice little mid-week six-game slate is on the docket this evening! I’m always a big fan of these sorts of slates as there are just enough teams in action to get some creative builds together but not enough to where it almost feels like a complete slot machine pull with every lineup entry. The injury report is still fairly hectic but there are only a handful of truly impactful players that have a “questionable” designation. Let’s get to it! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Pistons: A. Thompson - OUT

• Celtics: J. Tatum - Questionable, J. Holiday - Questionable

• Pacers: A. Nembhard - OUT, B. Sheppard - OUT, A. Nesmith - OUT

• Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, C. Johnson - Questionable, B. Simmons - Questionable, Z. Williams - OUT, D. Finney-Smith - Questionable, N. Clowney - OUT

• Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, A. Reaves - OUT, J. Hayes - OUT, J. Hood-Schifino - Questionable

• Heat: J. Butler - Questionable, K. Love - Probable, N. Jovic - Questionable, J. Richardson - Questionable

• Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, G. Bitadze - Questionable, G. Harris - OUT

• 76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, P. George - OUT, A. Drummond - OUT, K. Lowry - OUT

• Hawks: T. Young - Probable

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable

• Timberwolves: R. Dillingham - OUT, J. Ingles - OUT

• Clippers: N. Powell - OUT, K. Porter Jr. - Questionable, T. Mann - Questionable, K. Brown - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k | at MIL

There is only one game on this slate with a total over 225 points and it’ll be this Hawks at Bucks match-up. Gaining exposure to key players in this match-up would be a logical approach, so we’ll start things off with Trae Young. He is leading the NBA, by a wide margin, with 12.2 APG to go alongside his 20.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 1.3 STL/gm. Young is going to post a points/assists double-double most nights, and he’s been a bit better on the road this season where he’s averaging 22.4 PPG on 42.6% FG% (vs. 19.5 PPG and 35.4% FG% on the road) and 12.6 APG (vs. 11.8 APG away). The Bucks also rank 25th versus starting PGs L20Games, allowing 41.0 DKFP/39.2 FDFP per game to the position… and, of course, Trae Young is better than the average PG. I don’t believe it's vital to spend up at guard today but Young is likely my favorite of the bunch.

PG/SG Derrick White, BOS | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.2k | vs. DET

Outside of two duds, White has been a strong floor play out of the mid-range essentially all season. And he has been at his best at home where he’s averaging 39.6 FPPG and shooting a 43.7% 3P% (vs. 32.3 FPPG & 39.5% 3P% on the road). The Celtics also have two key players who are questionable for tonight’s game -- Jayson Tatum (knee) and Jrue Holiday (knee). If either (or both) of those players are ruled out, it’d be a nice boost for White, but he’s in play even if the Celtics roll out their typical starters. The Pistons rank 26th versus starting SGs L20Games and the Celtics’ 117.8 implied team total is the second-highest on the slate.

PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | at MIA

Until Austin Reaves (pelvis/out) is ready to come back, D’Angelo Russell should retain a temporary starting role. On a night where most of the Lakers struggled against the Timberwolves on Monday, Russell was a lone bright spot, scoring a team-high 20 points and finishing with 33.75 DKFP/31.10 FDFP. As usual, DraftKings is a bit slower on pricing players where they need to be when playing in expanded roles, so Russell will be preferred there at his $4,900 salary.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Damian Lillard, MIL vs. ATL

PG James Harden, LAC vs. MIN

PG Tyler Herro, MIA vs. LAL (Boost if J. Butler is out)

PG Dennis Schroder, BKN vs. IND (Boost if C. Johnson is out)

PG/SG Payton Pritchard, BOS vs. DET (Boost if J. Holiday and/or J. Tatum are out)

SG/SF Dalton Knecht, LAL at MIA

SG/SF Tyrese Martin, BKN vs. IND (Only if starting again)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.1k, FD: $12k | vs. ATL

Great spot for a bounce-back performance for Giannis tonight. For what he costs in the world of DFS, folks will likely see his 47.75 DKFP/45.40 FDFP scores from last night and view it as a dud without realizing that he played zero minutes in the fourth quarter in what ended up being a 21-point blowout. The fact that Giannis played just 28 minutes last night bodes well for his potential on tonight’s second leg of a back-to-back. He’ll also be back at home where he has averaged +21.9% more FPPG than on the road (65.8 FPPG at home vs. 54.0 FPPG away). And it’s of course an excellent match-up versus the Hawks who are 2nd in pace and 20th in DEFRTG. Giannis is averaging a monstrous 1.94 FPPM over his last five games and if he plays his usual mid-30s minutes tonight, he could easily go for one of those 70+ FP performances.

PF/C Obi Toppin, IND | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.1k | at BKN

The forward mid-range tier leaves a lot to be desired on this slate so we’ll instead spotlight a couple of value plays that could make a stud like the aforementioned Giannis Antetokounmpo more of a possibility. Obi Toppin’s range of outcomes can be fairly wide since we never know how many minutes he’ll see, but he’s a strong FPPM guy (1.05 FPPM L5Games) who is coming off of back-to-back performances of at least 29.0 DKFP/28.1 FDFP. The Pacers are on the second leg of a B2B where four of the five starters played at least 36 minutes, so I could see Toppin handling 20-24 minutes tonight as a realistic possibility. While the Nets are the slowest-paced team in the NBA, they are 26th in DEFRTG so it’s not exactly a bad match-up for Toppin and the Pacers.

SF/SG Jordan Miller, LAC | DK: $3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. MIN

We’re entering into total punt territory here but Jordan Miller could have a chance to see some decent minutes off of the Clippers’ bench. Norman Powell, who recently returned from a hamstring injury, has been ruled out on the second leg of the B2B, Kevin Porter Jr. (ankle/out) will miss a third consecutive game, and Terance Mann (finger/questionable) seems iffy to play after fracturing the middle finger on his left hand last night. Though most of his 24 minutes came in the fourth quarter of last night’s blowout over the Trailblazers, Miller did go on to put up a quality 25.5 DKFP/25.3 FDFP. He has averaged a respectable 0.90 FPPM this season and could easily be in line for 20-24 minutes this evening. At worst, I don’t think he’ll burn your lineups at these bottom-of-the-barrell DFS salaries.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. DET (Currently questionable)

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL at MIL

SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS vs. DET (Boost if J. Tatum is out)

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA vs. LAL (Currently questionable)

PF/C Guerschon Yabusele, PHI vs. ORL

PF/C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL at PHI (Preferred if G. Bitadze is out)

SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL at MIL

SF/SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL at MIL

SF Zaccharie Risacher, ATL at MIL

SF/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN at LAC

SF/SG Quenton Jackson, IND at BKN (Only if starting)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.8k | at MIL

I don’t feel compelled to spotlight any of the more high-end centers on this slate so we’ll go back to a guy who has steadily represented some nice value. Barring an injury to Onyeka Okongwu, he won’t play 30+ minutes, but Clint Capela continues to put up elite per-minute production. He’s averaging 11.6 RPG, 3.0 STL+BLK/gm, and 1.29 FPPM L5Games. The Hawks will need his size against the likes of Giannis, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis, so I could see Capela hitting the upper range of his minutes range again tonight -- perhaps 26-28 minutes -- in which case he’d likely go for 6x (or better) value once again.

C Moritz Wagner, ORL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.6k | at PHI

Mo Wagner has already been returning excellent value, scoring at least 28.5 DKFP/28.8 FDFP in six of his last seven games, and now center Goga Bitadze (ankle/questionable) is in danger of missing a second consecutive game. Bitadze was a late scratch last night, which led to Mo Wagner tying his season-high in minutes (28) off of the bench and pouring in 44.0 DKFP/43.90 FDFP. Wagner is a viable value play regardless and has averaged an outstanding 1.23 FPPM this season, but if Bitadze is out again tonight, he could set up as one of the better values on the slate versus a 76ers team that is without their top two centers (Embiid & Drummond).

Other Centers to Consider

C Anthony Davis, LAL at MIA

C Bam Adebayo, MIA vs. LAL

C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS vs. DET (Boost if J. Tatum is out)

C Mo Bamba, LAC vs. MIN

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!