Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon 

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

The week of small slates continues with a little four-gamer on tap for Thursday evening. Assuming the Anthony Davis and LeBron James “questionable” tags are just standard procedure once again, the only marquee injury on this slate will belong to Mavs’ superstar Luka Doncic (ankle/out). So, finding value may be a bit tricky but we should expect plenty of scoring tonight with the lowest total being a 234.5 over/under. Let’s make the most of this modest slate and try to crack the code. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Celtics: A. Horford - OUT

Bucks: J. Crowder - OUT, C. Payne - Probable

Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Doubtful, J. Walker - Questionable, M. Brown - OUT

Thunder: None

Knicks: None

Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT, D. Exum - OUT, D. Lively II - Doubtful, G. Williams - Questionable, M. Kleber - Doubtful

Suns: None

Lakers: A. Davis - Questionable, L. James - Questionable, R. Hachimura - Doubtful, C. Reddish - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $9k, FD: $10.1k | vs. NYK

It’s about as obvious as it gets since Luka Doncic (ankle/out) is the one massive injury absence on this slate, but Kyrie Irving is impossible to look past today. He has dropped at least 51.75 DKFP/52.3 FDFP in four consecutive games and Doncic played in three of those. In the one recent game that Luka sat out (1/5 vs. POR), Irving dropped 24/9/5 and four total steals/blocks across just 29 minutes in a 33-point blowout victory over the Blazers. The Knicks rank mid-pack defensively and they operate at the 5th slowest pace, so it’s not a stellar match-up, but this game should be competitive (DAL: +4) and the Mavs will need a big night out of Kyrie to earn the victory.

SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo, NYK | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.2k | @ DAL

The Knicks have been involved in quite a few blowout wins lately, which may be why DiVincenzo’s minutes have been on the low end, but he has averaged a strong 1.12 FPPM L5Games. Just before that sample size began, DiVincenzo exploded for a 38-point, 61.5 DKFP/62.2 FDFP performance. The Mavs have ranked 25th versus SGs L20Games, allowing 31.5 DKFP/29.9 FDFP per game to SG starters in that span. There aren’t many overly appealing guards out of the mid-range, but DiVincenzo seems like a quality option at these low-end $5k salaries.

PG/SG Jaden Hardy, DAL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | vs. NYK

I don’t love spotlighting so many players from just one game, but I also don’t want to miss out on discussing a great value option like Jaden Hardy. There’s no doubt he’s going to be popular today, but if he goes off for a similar performance from six days ago, he may end up being necessary chalk. Hardy started for the injured Luka Doncic last Friday and posted what was easily his best fantasy performance of the season (45.25 DKFP/42.3 FDFP). He scored 19 points on 8/14 shooting and fell one assist and one rebound shy of a triple-double. Now, Hardy has been known to disappoint when handling spot starts this season, so he’s far from a guarantee to produce tonight. With that said, he is averaging a respectable 1.05 FPPM with Luka off the floor and Kyrie on the floor this season.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.3k | vs. POR

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9k | @ DAL

PG Damian Lillard, MIL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. BOS

PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | @ OKC

PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.8k | vs. POR

SG/SF Grayson Allen, PHX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.4k | @ LAL

SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.3k | vs. NYK

PG/SG Miles McBride, NYK | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.7k | @ DAL (Seeing some extra run lately, but mostly due to blowouts)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.4k | @ MIL

We’ll have an elite match-up here featuring the top two teams in the Eastern Conference standings. This game owns a slate-high 245 over/under and a narrow spread (MIL: -2). Even with that in mind, it feels as if Jayson Tatum may go under-owned in tournaments tonight despite playing as well as he has all season in recent weeks. Spanning his last five games, Tatum is averaging a stout 1.63 FPPM (vs. 1.35 FPPM L20Games). He just dropped 45 actual points on the NBA’s best defense last night, though he did log heavy minutes. Being on the second leg of a back-to-back maybe isn’t ideal, but if Tatum is going to be around 10% owned tonight, then he’ll stand out as a very intriguing leverage play.

SF/PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | vs. POR

Out of the four games on this slate, this Blazers/Thunder match-up is the most likely one to turn into a blowout (OKC: -13). But if things stay competitive and OKC starters play their usual minutes, a guy like Jalen Williams could be a difference-maker on the slate. Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will easily lead the team in usage, but Williams will generally take on the second or third-high usage rate. He has also seen his assist rate climb recently, with 6.8 APG L5Games, and he’s racking up more steals/blocks as well (2.6 STL+BLK/gm L5Games). The Trailblazers own the 5th worst DEFRTG L20games and Williams stands out as one of the better forwards options out of the mid-range. But, again, the one real concern is the potential for a blowout here.

SF Taurean Prince, LAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.9k | vs. PHX

I won’t pretend as if Prince is ever an exciting play. He’s a low-usage wing who relies on high minutes to hit value. That being said, Prince does routinely play mid-30s minutes and he receives a slight bump with Rui Hachimura (doubtful) unlikely to play tonight. And, while I would expect Anthony Davis and LeBron James (both questionable) to both play, if either one of those guys happens to be a surprise scratch, Prince would receive a sizable bump. He’s generally going to return low-20s fantasy points but he’s no stranger to the occasional 30+ FP performance. So, if you’re in search of a cheap forward and want to pivot away from some of the Mavs chalk, then keep Prince on the radar today.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12k, FD: $12.3k | vs. BOS

PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.4k | vs. PHX (Currently questionable - DK Preferred)

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | vs. PHX (Currently questionable)

PF/C Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.9k | @ DAL

PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k | @ MIL

SF/SG Khris Middleton, MIL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. BOS

SF/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.6k | @ OKC (DK Preferred)

SF/PF Derrick Jones Jr., DAL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | vs. NYK

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5k | @ DAL

SF/PF Toumani Camara, POR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.8k | @ OKC

SF/PF Josh Green, DAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.7k | vs. NYK

SF/SG AJ Lawson, DAL | DK: $3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. NYK (Risky GPP Punt)

SF/PF Olivier-Maxence Prosper, DAL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. NYK (Risky GPP Punt)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | @ DAL

Hartenstein has really begun to gel into his role as the Knicks’ full-time starting center. In his last five games, he’s nearly averaging a double-double with 9.4 PPG and 13.6 RPG. Perhaps what’s most impressive is his improved shot-blocking and steal upside -- he’s at 5.0 STL+BLK/gm L5Games. He’s playing mid-to-high 30s minutes in any competitive game, as this match-up tonight should be. Based on his per-minute fantasy production, Hartenstein is going to be a great option on this modest slate.

C Christian Wood, LAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5k | vs. PHX

The current expectation is that Dwight Powell (DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.8k) will be the chalk value center tonight. Powell could certainly return solid value but he’s also a major bust candidate, as any long-time NBA DFS player can tell you. I wouldn’t mind pivoting to Christian Wood at similar price points if searching for a cheap center play. Wood is much more productive than Powell on a per-minute basis (Wood: 1.05 FPPM L5Games, Powell: 0.78 FPPM L5Games) and he’s getting some decent minutes off of the bench with Rui Hachimura (doubtful) sidelined. Of course, if Anthony Davis (questionable) is a surprise scratch tonight, Wood’s stock would skyrocket. But we likely won’t know AD’s availability until after the initial games get underway.

Other Centers to Consider

C Chet Holmgren, OKC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.5k | vs. POR

C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.2k | @ OKC

C Dwight Powell, DAL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.8k | vs. NYK

C Ibou Badji, POR | DK: $4k, FD: $4.2k | @ OKC

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks recommendations from me today but Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great suggestions in the video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!