Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon 

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ve got some all-day MLK Day NBA action going and, for our evening main slate, we’ll have five games on the board! I’m getting this newsletter together in the car while riding back home so forgive me for some added conciseness to this edition. Let’s jump right into the action and best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Bulls: A. Dosunmu - Probable, P. Williams - Questionable, D. Terry - Probable

• Cavaliers: D. Garland - OUT, E. Mobley - OUT, M. Strus - Questionable

• Celtics: J. Brown - OUT

• Raptors: J. Poeltl - OUT, O. Porter Jr. - OUT

• Heat: J. Butler - Questionable, J. Jaquez Jr. - OUT, K. Love - OUT, K. Lowry - Doubtful

• Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, D. Sharpe - OUT

• Pacers: T. Haliburton - OUT, A. Nesmith - Questionable

• Jazz: None

• Thunder: S. Gilgeous-Alexander - Questionable

• Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, D. Russell - Questionable, C. Reddish - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8k | @ BKN

I wouldn’t say it's vital to spend up at guard on this slate but this will be a range where we get some low-owned players with plenty of upside. The Heat remain fairly shorthanded, though they could get Jimmy Butler (toe/questionable) back in the mix. However, the fact that the Heat are one-point underdogs against the Nets leads me to believe that Butler will either be out or limited after missing 11 of Miami’s last 12 games. Either way, Tyler Herro should share the keys to the offense alongside center Bam Adebayo tonight. Herro’s usage rate has been just under 30% over the last 20 games and the Nets have ranked 21st versus starting PGs L20Games. This next sentence will hinge on Butler’s availability but when Butler (questionable), Jamie Jaquez Jr.(out), Kevin Love (out), and Kyle Lowry (doubtful) have been off the floor this season, Herro is averaging +10.85 more FPPG per 48 minutes. Again, none of the high-priced guards are priorities, but Herro makes for an interesting GPP option and will likely fall under 10% ownership.

PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.7k | vs. IND

Here’s to hoping Sexton can play his way to 30+ minutes tonight. He has not played more than 28 minutes in any of his five recent games but he has been outstanding on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.57 FPPM. That ranks him second among all guards on this slate, behind on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is questionable to play tonight. As usual, whenever the Pacers (2nd in pace, 26th in DEFRTG) are involved, we’re going to see a high total -- this game leads the slate with a lofty 246 over/under, and the Jazz are seven-point home favorites. This play could easily backfire if Sexton doesn’t get solid minutes tonight or if he regresses closer to his season-average FPPM baseline, but for a guy who is priced out of the $6k range, the upside is certainly there.

PG/SG Payton Pritchard, BOS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.9k | @ TOR

Jaylen Brown being out tonight may not impact a guy like Pritchard the most but it does open up some usage to trickle down to Boston’s second unit. Pritchard has played at least 23 minutes in three of the last four games, two being blowouts and one being a close game. In those three games, he put up at least 28.75 DKFP/25.9 FDFP and averaged over an FPPM. Pritchard is more likely to see additional minutes in blowouts, which this may not be tonight (BOS: -6.5). But perhaps his strong recent form is enough to get him to low-20s minutes regardless tonight.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (DK Preferred - Currently questionable)

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE (Slight boost if Strus is out)

SG/SF Zach LaVine, CHI

PG/SG Immanuel Quickley, TOR

SG Jordan Clarkson, UTA

PG/SG Josh Giddey (Massive boost if SGA is out)

SG/SF Alex Caruso, CHI

SG Sam Merrill, CLE (Preferred if Strus is out)

PG Dennis Smith Jr., BKN

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.9k | vs. IND

The forward positions seem to hold some of the best plays on this slate and Markkanen is going to be one that we’ll target. He has been playing very well recently, averaging 1.54 FPPM over his last five games and scoring at least 48.5 DKFP/46.4 FDFP in four of those five games. The Jazz lead the slate with a 126.5 implied team total and Markkanen should have no issues in this match-up as the Pacers have ranked dead last versus starting power forwards over their L20Games.

SF/PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.8k | @ LAL

The biggest potential injury impact on this slate belongs to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is questionable with a knee injury tonight. The Thunder are also on the front end of a back-to-back, which may put SGA more on the doubtful side of his questionable designation. Since this game doesn’t tip off until 10:30 ET, we likely won’t know his availability until after the earlier games get underway. If SGA were to be ruled out, it would only bode well for Jalen Williams’ upside as he has handled a team-leading +4.77% usage increase with SGA off of the court this season. However, given the way he’s been playing, Williams should be in play regardless of SGA’s status, especially on DraftKings at $6,900. He has posted at least 39.75 DKFP/40.4 FDFP in four of his last six games and the Lakers have not defended the PF position well (25th vs. Starting PFs L20Games). Williams is also averaging 40.4 DKFP in two games against the Lakers this season.

PF Nikola Jovic, MIA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.9k | @ BKN

The range of outcomes is pretty wide for a player like Jovic but, due to injuries, he has a chance to log 30+ minutes tonight. Jovic is averaging a respectable 0.94 FPPM as a starter this season and he’s been an effective stretch big, draining 44.4% of his three-pointers. At the end of the day, Jovic can provide 6x or 7x value, but he could also stink it up with a 2x value kinda game. He is not overly expensive so if the gamble doesn’t exactly pay off, he shouldn’t completely kill you in any lineups.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL (Currently questionable)

SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS

PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS

SF/SG Mikal Bridges, BKN

SF/SG Duncan Robinson (Preferred if J. Butler is out or limited)

SF/SG RJ Barrett, TOR

SF Luguentz Dort, OKC (Preferred if SGA is out)

SF/PF Sam Hauser, BOS (Boost if starting)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | @ CLE

We’ve seen some big games out of Vuc since returning from his five-game injury absence and, most recently, he dropped 59.5 DKFP/58.7 FDFP behind a 24/16/5 stat line that also featured three blocks. Of course, facing the Spurs and facing the Cavaliers are two completely different match-ups, but Vucevic went up against Cleveland not too long ago (Dec. 23rd) and came out of it with 47.0 DKFP/45.4 FDFP. As is often the case with centers, he sticks out as a better bargain on DraftKings, but he’s still playable at $8,300 on FanDuel.

C Jontay Porter, TOR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. BOS

Porter has seen his minutes go from 10 to 18 to 31 over the last three games while Jakob Poeltl has been out with an ankle injury -- Poeltl remains out tonight. The Raptors are using Thad Young as their interim starting center but Porter is certainly playing well enough to earn solid minutes off of the bench. He’s also passing it well as a big man and has six, four, and three assists L3Games. We can’t count on 31 minutes again, but he’ll be an intriguing value play if he can work his way into low/mid-20s minutes tonight.

 Other Centers to Consider

C Bam Adebayo, MIA

C Jarrett Allen, CLE

C Nic Claxton, BKN

C Isaiah Jackson, IND (DK Preferred)

C Thaddeus Young, TOR (Assuming he continues to start)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks recommendations from me today but Shannon has ya covered with some great suggestions in the video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!