Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon 

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s TNT Tuesday which means we’ll have a couple of marquee match-ups to enjoy but they’re featured on a minuscule slate with just three total games. I normally don’t put a newsletter together unless there are at least four games on a slate but I figured “Why the hell not?” today. For a while, it looked as if the Nuggets were thinking about resting all of their starters tonight but all five day-to-day starters have since been upgraded to probable. So, it looks as if we’ll avoid that headache. The Nuggets play on the first game on the slate so if any last-minute shenanigans occur, we’ll at least have some time to adjust. Based on the current spread (PHI: -1.5) it would seem as if Vegas is expecting the usual starting lineup [for Denver]. Someone has to take down today’s tournaments so let’s see if we can find the right pieces to the puzzle. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

• Nuggets: N. Jokic - Probable, J. Murray - Probable, M. Porter Jr. - Probable, A. Gordon - Probable, K. Caldwell-Pope - Probable, J. Strawther - OUT

• 76ers: D. Melton - OUT, M. Bamba - OUT, J. Springer - OUT, R. Covington - OUT

• Kings: K. Murray - Questionable

• Suns: B. Bol - OUT

• Thunder: None

• Clippers: I. Zubac - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SAC

Despite its small size, this slate does pack a punch in the amount of star players available to choose from. At guard, we’ll start off with a high-floor player in Devin Booker. He’s coming in off of back-to-back 50+ FP performances on the road, which is a promising trend considering he tends to play his best at home. The Suns are, of course, back at home tonight where Booker has averaged 27.2 PPG and 48.2 DKFP/gm (vs. 44.7 DKFP/gm on the road) this season. This match-up will feature the highest total on the slate (244.5 O/U) and the Kings have allowed the 8th most FPPG to starting PGs L20Games. The Suns have finally had their “big three” of Booker, KD, and Beal all healthy over their last few games, which may limit the potential ceiling of each player but Booker still feels like a strong DFS option on this particular slate.

PG James Harden, LAC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.1k | vs. OKC

Getting the 2024 version of James Harden “right” can be a challenge for DFS purposes, but I like his price point of $8,100 on both sites today. He’s nearly averaging a points/assists double-double across 17 games at home this season -- 16.6 PPG/9.0 APG -- to go along with 2.4 STL+BLK/gm (at home). He also has a long, consistent history of good-to-great results against his former Thunder team where he began his NBA career. While it is difficult to compare the current James Harden to the sort of player he was in seasons past, he did drop 51.75 DKFP/51.8 FDFP against OKC when these teams met a few weeks ago on Dec. 21st -- though, it’s worth noting that Kawhi Leonard was out for that match-up. The Clippers will be without starting center Ivica Zubac tonight and Harden has seen a +4.4% USG% increase and +8.8 FPPG per 48-minute hike with Zubac off the floor this season. The Thunder also have several players who perform notably worse on the second leg of back-to-backs, which they are on tonight. We won’t be happy if Harden only scores around 30-35 FP tonight but, in this particular scenario, I believe his chances of returning at least 40-50 FP is more probable.

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DEN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.7k | @ PHI

Pending any additional injury news, we’re really short on viable value options on this slate. KCP is not a player I’d normally slide into my lineups, but he makes sense as a cheap option today. He’s a sub-$5k starter who will likely play 30+ minutes, which are few and far in between on this three-gamer. KCP is only averaging 0.65 FPPM on the season but he does have quality steals/blocks upside, he has put up at least 11 points in four consecutive games, and he’s shooting 41.3% from three this season. We’ll probably be stoked to get 25 FP out of him but as long as he doesn’t completely dud while allowing us to afford some high-end studs, then he’ll have served his purpose for our DFS ventures today.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.4k | @ LAC (DK Preferred)

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $9k, FD: $8.7k | @ PHX (Moderate bump if K. Murray is out)

PG/SG Bradley Beal, PHX | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. SAC

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.8k | @ PHX

SG Kevin Huerter, SAC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.4k | @ PHX

PG Patrick Beverly, PHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. DEN

PG Reggie Jackson, DEN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.3k | @ PHI (DK Preferred)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. OKC

Kawhi should be one of the more popular plays on the slate and for good reason. He’s under $9k on both sites but he has certainly been playing like a guy who is deserving of a mid-$9k DFS salary. Kawhi has secured at least 45.25 DKFP/47.4 FDFP in seven of his last 11 games and has several 50+ FP performances in that stretch. If we look across his last 20 starts, he’s posting 26.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.8 STL+BLK/gm, and a sturdy 1.32 FPPM. The Clippers own a 121.3 implied team total tonight. If you look through Leonard’s game logs from the last couple of months, when the Clippers score right around, or more than, 120 points, Kawhi rarely disappoints.

PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.2k | @ PHI

As long as the Nuggets don’t pull a fast one by resting their starters, Aaron Gordon should fall into DFS consideration at these low-$6k price points. He may not be the most consistent player, but he does have some very realistic 6x (or better) potential tonight. The Nuggets (+1.5) do not find themselves as underdogs often, but in two underdog games this season, Gordon has averaged 37.4 DKFP/37.3 FDFP. The 76ers do not represent a stellar match-up, but they are on the second leg of a B2B and if Gordon logs mid-30s minutes here, he’ll be a great bet to meet salary-based expectations.

PF/C Chimezie Metu, PHX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. SAC

The value options really are ugly today and, assuming the Nuggets don’t actually rest their starters, the amount of injury impacts on this slate are minimal. That said, Chimezie Metu will have a chance to see some extra minutes off of the Suns’ bench due to Bol Bol being ruled out. He played 17 minutes in Sunday’s contest and secured 18.25 DKFP/20.6 FDFP. Will that sort of score win you a GPP on most slates? Doubtful. But on this particular slate, if we can squeeze 20 FP out of a guy at this salary, it just might be enough to snag a takedown if you hit on the correct studs. The big hurdle will be for Metu to actually play close to 20 minutes. It does bode well that he is at home, where he is averaging exactly 1.00 FPPM this season, versus 0.75 FPPM on the road.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. SAC

SF/PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | @ LAC

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.7k | @ PHI

PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ PHX (Currently questionable)

SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | @ LAC

SF/SG Norman Powell, LAC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.5k | vs. OKC

PF/C Peyton Watson, DEN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.6k | @ PHI (DK Preferred)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.4k, FD: $12.2k | vs. DEN

Embiid versus Jokic will be some must-see TV. The two best centers in the game, and the two players that have accounted for the last three MVP awards, are clearly in play for DFS purposes. However, Embiid will be the clear favorite when deciding between the two. He has simply been consistently elite and, though he has missed some games due to injury in recent weeks, he hasn’t missed a step when he has returned to action. He’s averaging an eye-popping 1.95 FPPM over his last 20 games. In his last 16 games, he has scored fewer than 61.75 DKFP just once. I’m not sure how you can comfortably fade Embiid tonight, especially on DraftKings where his $11,400 salary still somehow feels like a bargain.

C Mason Plumlee, LAC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. OKC

On this slate, Ivica Zubac (calf/out) can be considered the biggest injury impact on the day. That will lead to heavy ownership of the Clippers’ center position. Zubac was a late scratch on Sunday, which led to Daniel Theis (DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.4k) earning the spot start. Theis drew a tough match-up against Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense. Assuming he starts again, I don’t mind the Theis play. But Plumlee played just six fewer minutes than Theis and, on the season, he’s been the more productive fantasy point-per-minute player. Plumlee has averaged a solid 0.94 FPPM this year compared to a still good, but not great 0.88 FPPM for Theis. It would be reasonable to assume that both Theis and Plumlee will split center minutes fairly evenly tonight. If that is the case, I’ll give a slight nod in favor of Plumlee as a value play -- and there is always the possibility that the Clippers end up slotting him in as the starter over Theis.

Other Centers to Consider

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.7k | @ PHI

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.1k | @ PHX

C Jusuf Nurkic, PHX | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.2k | vs. SAC

C Daniel Theis, LAC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. OKC

C DeAndre Jordan, DEN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.4k | @ PHI (DK Preferred Punt Play)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Aaron Gordon MORE than 25.5 Fantasy Score

Devin Booker MORE than 6.0 Three-Pointers Attempted

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!