Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon 

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ll close out the work week with a quality seven-game NBA slate! There are a lot of great match-ups on the board today, between great teams, middling teams, and scrubby teams alike. Here’s to little-to-no blowouts as well -- the largest spread of the day is only seven points, which is a bit of a rarity in the NBA these days. Realistically, there is not a huge amount of injury news to monitor -- most of the key players that are banged up have already been ruled out for this evening’s contests. However, the Pacers injury report is one that we’ll need to monitor, including the availability (or lack thereof) of the recently acquired Pascal Siakam. Some Pacers news may trickle in as I’m writing this article, so I’ll update the injury report below as needed. Let’s make this Friday slate a profitable one! Best of luck!

Update: Siakam appears likely to make his Pacers debut tonight.

Today’s Key Injuries

Spurs: V. Wembanyama - OUT, Z. Collins - Questionable (Expected to play)

Hornets: G. Hayward - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, B. Miller - Questionable, N. Richards - Questionable, B. McGowens - Questionable

76ers: D. Melton - OUT, M. Bamba - OUT, J. Springer - Questionable, R. Covington - OUT

Magic: F. Wagner - OUT, G. Harris - OUT

Nuggets: A. Gordon - Probable, J. Strawther - OUT

Celtics: None

Hawks: T. Young - OUT, D. Hunter - OUT, W. Matthews - OUT

Heat: J. Jaquez Jr. - Doubtful, D. Robinson - Questionable

Suns: B. Bol - OUT

Pelicans: None

Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, P. Siakam - “Likely” to make Pacers debut, A. Nembhard - Questionable, A. Nesmith - Questionable, I. Jackson - Questionable

Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Probable, S. Sharpe - OUT, M. Brown - OUT

Nets: M. Bridges - Probable, B. Simmons - OUT, D. Sharpe - OUT

Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, C. Reddish - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. SAS

The Hornets have netted just a single win over their last 18 games but they’ll find themselves in a winnable match-up at home against the Spurs tonight. The Spurs are 24th in DEFRTG this season, which is already bad enough, but they’ve easily been the worst defense in the NBA when Victor Wembanyama (rest/out) has been off the floor. This will help lead to the Hornets being -4.5 favorites in this evening’s match-up. LaMelo Ball is set to play in his fourth game since missing 20 games due to an ankle injury. By all means, he’s been posting quality fantasy results in those three previous games, buoyed by a monster 37.6% usage rate, and his minutes have been gradually climbing with each successive start. Ball’s first game back from injury came against this same Spurs team. Despite playing only 27 minutes in what was an eventual 36-point blowout loss on the road, Ball posted a strong 28/3/5 stat line which included five steals -- good for 47.75 DKFP/48.1 FDFP. I believe Ball could have pushed for his usual mid-30s minutes in the most recent game on Wednesday versus the Pels were it not for yet another blowout game script (Hornets lost by 20). We’ll be expecting, at minimum, 50 fantasy points out of Ball tonight and he could easily go for 60+ FP. He’s more appropriately priced on FanDuel, as still in play there, but Ball is very enticing at his sub-$9k price tag on DraftKings.

PG/SG Dejounte Murray, ATL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | @ MIA

Not exactly a sneaky play here with Trae Young (illness/out) already being ruled out, but I figured it was worth spotlighting Dejounte Murray nonetheless. De’Andre Hunter (knee/out) will also miss his 14th consecutive game. In 240 minutes with Young and Hunter off of the floor this season, Murray has acquired a team-leading +5.5% usage boost and has averaged +10.4 fantasy points per 32 minutes. Murray has also averaged 47.6 DKFP/47.6 FDFP in two games against the Heat this season -- Trae Young played in both of those games. Pending blowout or injury, Murray sets up as one of the best plays out of the mid-range today.

PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. IND

The Trailblazers starting backcourt continues to be a bit of a revolving door but, in their most recent game against the Nets on Wednesday, Scoot Henderson returned to the bench and Brogdon re-entered the starting rotation after playing the previous handful of games off of the bench (and he missed a couple of games due to injury). We’ll have to wait and see how things play out once Shaedon Sharpe (abdominal strain/out) returns from injury, but he’ll be out for a fourth consecutive game. Brogdon logged 30 minutes in a 105-103 victory on Wednesday and posted a solid 34.25 DKFP/34.0 FDFP; we’ll assume he earns another start tonight. I’m not sure if there is a need to inject a “revenge narrative” here but, between last season and this season, Brogdon has scored at least 37.0 DKFP/35.9 FDFP in three previous starts against his former Pacers team. He’s also averaging +28% more FPPG in pace-up match-ups (IND: 2nd in pace). Brogdon has posted 1.18 FPPM over his last five games as a starter so, give him 30+ minutes again tonight, and he should return strong value in a game that possesses a slate-leading 238 over/under.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.8k | @ BOS

PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. PHX

PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ATL

SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SAS (DK Preferred)

PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | vs. BKN

PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.6k | @ POR (Pending IND injury news)

SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.1k | @ MIA

SG/SF Cody Martin, CHA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.3k | vs. SAS (DK Preferred)

PG Trent Forrest, ATL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | @ MIA (DK GPP Punt Play)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Pascal Siakam, IND | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.9k | @ POR

Siakam is reportedly “likely” to make his Pacers debut in Portland tonight. It’s always going to be a risk rolling out a player in their first game with a new team, but Siakam’s fantasy outlook sets up much better with the Pacers than it did with the Raptors. Not only is he going to be playing in a significantly faster offense (IND: 2nd in pace, TOR: 15th in pace), but he’ll be surrounded by better shooters. Not only will his assist rate likely climb, but he should have more room to operate on the interior. As long as there are no minute restrictions for him in his first game donning the Pacers’ uniform, he’ll draw a promising match-up against a Trailblazers team that allows the 4th most points in the paint per game and ranks 24th in rebounding%.

PF Jeremy Sochan, SAS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.6k | @ CHA

Defense should be an afterthought in this match-up that features a Hornets team that is dead last in DEFRTG and, as mentioned in LaMelo Ball’s spotlight, a Spurs defense that overtakes the dead-last DEFRTG ranking when Victor Wembanyama (rest/out) is off the floor. The $6,600 FanDuel tag for Sochan is enough to give some pause here, but his $5,200 DraftKings salary is going to be very appealing. Sochan isn’t necessarily doing any one thing overly well, but he’s averaging exactly 1.00 FPPM in his L5Starts to go with 13.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 3.2 APG, 2.2 STL+BLK/gm, and 30.6 DKFP/gm. He’s also averaging +3.3 fantasy points per 32 minutes with Wemby off the court. All-in-all, a 6x return on value is a very achievable outcome for Sochan (on DraftKings) tonight.

SF/PF Joe Ingles, ORL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. PHI

A balanced lineup approach feels like a strong approach to this slate so I don’t believe we necessarily have to dumpster dive for too many cheap options. That said, if Ingles gets hot from beyond the arc, he is a sub-$4k player (on both sites) who could provide 6x-8x GPP-winning potential. Since missing some time with an ankle injury, Ingles has played exactly 20 minutes in his three games post-injury. He’s averaging a hair under an FPPM in that time and his scoring off of the bench is needed for a Magic team that is without Franz Wagner and Gary Harris. On the season, he’s also been more productive at home where he has averaged +36.8% more FPPG. It’s not an exciting play but Ingles works as an acceptable “last guy in [your lineup]” guy if you’re looking to load up on multiple studs.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.5k | vs. BKN (DK Preferred)

SF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. ATL (DK Preferred)

PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. PHX

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | @ MIA

SF/SG Grayson Allen, PHX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.1k | @ NOP

PF/C Jabari Walker, POR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.6k | vs. IND

PF Nikola Jovic, MIA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.9k | vs. ATL

PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $6.2k | @ MIA (DK Preferred)

SF Chuma Okeke, ORL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.1k | vs. PHI

SF/SG Julian Champagnie, SAS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.5k | @ CHA (DK Preferred)

PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, LAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. BKN

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.3k | vs. ATL

There are some elite centers on this slate but Adebayo will lead the way as the top “tier two” center. He had a bit of a stinker against the Raptors on Wednesday, as did most of the Heat players en route to a 24-point loss. But, generally, Adebayo is going to bring a secure fantasy floor to DFS lineups and he lands in a promising match-up at home tonight. The Hawks have ranked 29th versus starting centers L20Games and Adebayo dropped 60+ FP on them earlier in the season, so we know the big upside is there.

C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.4k | vs. SAS

Richards heads into this game with a questionable designation after spraining his ankle in Wednesday’s game, but he was able to finish the contest. If he suits up, like the rest of the core Hornets, he’ll draw an exceptional match-up against the Wemby-less Spurs. Richards is a better bargain on DraftKings but, in what should be expected to be a competitive game between two bad teams, he should be a strong bet to play 30+ minutes (assuming he plays to begin with), so he’s in play at $6,400 on FanDuel as well. Richards’ tenure as the Hornets’ interim starting center has been fairly disappointing but he has at least shown 40+ FP potential and has some double-double upside tonight.

Other Centers to Consider

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.4k | @ ORL

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11.8k | @ BOS

C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | @ LAL

C Goga Bitadze, ORL | DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k | vs. PHI

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6k | vs. PHI (DK Preferred)

C Nathan Mensah, CHA | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. SAS (Only if N. Richards is out)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Austin Reaves LESS than 19.5 Points + Rebounds

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MORE than 19.5 Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!