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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

I hope everyone had a great time ringing in the New Year! Now it’s time to get the ball rolling on 2024, and we’ll have a six-game NBA slate ahead of us today. There are a surprising amount of teams on this slate that have little-to-no key injuries that they’re dealing with so finding more than a couple of viable value plays may be a bit more challenging. Nonetheless, this sets up as a promising little slate, so let’s turn it into a profitable one as well! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Bulls: N. Vucevic - OUT, Z. LaVine - OUT, T. Craig - OUT (expected out for multiple months so I will exclude him from these injury reports for the foreseeable future)

76ers: D. Melton - OUT, R. Covington - OUT, F. Korkmaz - OUT

Spurs: K. Johnson - Probable, Z. Collins - OUT

Grizzlies: None

Celtics: None

Thunder: None

Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT

Pelicans: T. Murphy III - Questionable

Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, T. Rozier - Probable, G. Hayward - OUT, M. Williams - Doubtful

Kings: None

Magic: M. Fultz - Questionable, J. Isaac - OUT, J. Ingles - OUT

Warriors: D. Green - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.3k | vs. BOS

I don’t believe it’s vital to spend up at guard today, but if that is a route you’re looking to take, then SGA is in an interesting spot at the very top of guard pricing. The Thunder have been involved in quite a few blowouts lately, but they’re four-point home underdogs tonight. And, while the Celtics don’t push the tempo (24th in pace) and play excellent defense (3rd in DEFRTG), that isn’t enough to stop this match-up from boasting a slate-high 240 over/under. SGA is coming off of a down game, by his standards, but in his previous six starts, he had poured in 30+ real points and scored at least 55.75 DKFP/56.5 FDFP. He’s been one of the best floor plays at the guard position all season. I’m not too stressed about this being the first game of a back-to-back for the Thunder; if the game is close, SGA will play big minutes and put up 20+ shots. I wouldn’t pin him as a priority play, but it is a sneaky spot for this to be a ceiling-type game for Gilgeous-Alexander as he takes on a top-notch opponent today.

PG Chris Paul, GSW | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.1k | vs. ORL

The Warriors are testing out a new starting lineup that features Curry, Klay, Paul, Kuminga, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. They first ran this lineup on Saturday and, while they did lose to the Mavs, the running theory is that they’ll stick with it for at least a few more games. Paul played 33 minutes in that last game and compiled 44.5 DKFP/44.4 FDFP. It was a particularly efficient shooting night for Paul (9/13, 64.3% FG% including 6/9, 66.7% 3P%) so his scoring will likely take a step back tonight against Orlando (5th in DEFRTG). However, Paul will still have a solid share of the usage and will share the court for more minutes with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, which could boost his assist numbers. Either way, Paul is averaging 1.25 FPPM in his last five games as a starter and is currently too cheap on both sites now that he has regained a starting role. Paul has also averaged +19.3% more FPPG at home this season.

PG Ish Smith, CHA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.7k | @ SAC

The Hornets continue to be without the services of LaMelo Ball (ankle/out) and now it looks like an illness will keep Terry Rozier out for a second consecutive game. (Update: Rozier is now probable). Ish Smith drew the start last night, playing 29 minutes, and would likely be in line for another start tonight. Smith is only averaging 0.76 FPPM in two starts this season, so it’s far from an exciting play, but he’s cheap enough to where he still can provide some value if he plays around 30 minutes tonight. The Hornets are major 16-point road underdogs so the blowout factor cannot be ignored either. A blowout could open the door for Nick Smith Jr. (DK: $4k, FD: $3.8k) handling additional run -- on a per-minute basis, Nick Smith has been more productive than Ish Smith this season.

Update: Rozier is now listed as “probable” for tonight’s game which knocks Ish Smith’s viability down quite a few notches. I could still see Ish Smith and/or Nick Smith Jr. handling additional minutes in a potential blowout, but both are obviously a bit riskier now. I would move Luke Kennard (DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.2k) into being my favorite cheap guard on the slate, pending further injury news.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.9k | vs. SAS

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | vs. CHA

SG/SF Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.9k | vs. BKN

PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k | vs. BKN (DK Preferred)

PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CHA

PG/SG Brandon Podziemski, GSW | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. ORL

PG/SG Marcus Smart, MEM | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. SAS

PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.3k | vs. BOS

SG Luke Kennard, MEM | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. SAS

PG Nick Smith Jr., CHA | DK: $4k, FD: $3.8k | @ SAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k | @ GSW

I don’t feel a need to force any of the most expensive forward options on this slate into the spotlight, so we’ll kick off this section with Paolo Banchero, who remains fairly priced in the $8k range on both sites. This is a solid “measuring stick” match-up for the 19-13 Magic, who currently sit 4th in the Eastern Conference standings. They’re three-point road underdogs to the Warriors, and I could see Paolo Banchero having success against the smaller Warriors starting lineup. Banchero has been contributing very well across the board lately -- over his last five starts, he’s averaging 26.8 PPG on 21.0 FGA/gm, 7.6 RPG, 5.4 APG, and 1.6 STL+BLK/gm while scoring 1.28 FPPM. The Warriors have ranked mid-pack defensively against starting power forwards and there’s no Draymond Green (suspension) to worry about throwing a cheap shot to the family jewels or anything like that. It’s a good spot for a Banchero 50+ FP game if you ask me.

PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | @ OKC

I can’t say that I absolutely love this play, but Porzingis has dropped at least 49.5 DKFP/48.1 FDFP in three of his last four starts and the Thunder have ranked 24th versus starting centers L20Games. The Thunder are also 29th in rebounding% so this could very well be a double-double night for KP. It is never a bad idea to gain exposure to the game with the highest over/under on the slate and I don’t imagine Porzingis will be overly popular tonight. He can be hard to trust, especially with the Celtics having a fully healthy lineup, but Porzingis has been receiving plenty of rest in recent weeks which seems to have given him some fresh legs. Over his last five starts, Porzingis is averaging 1.37 FPPM, which ranks him 2nd among all forwards on this slate behind only Victor Wembanyama (whose minutes are currently being limited).

SF/PF Andrew Wiggins, GSW | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.4k | vs. ORL

Wiggins is not a guy that has found his way into many of my lineups this season but he has put up some quality games since moving to the bench and his DFS salaries have hit much more palatable price points. He’s averaging 1.04 FPPM L5Games and has played at least 26 minutes off of the bench in five of his last six games. In general, he can put up a fair amount of shots with the Warriors’ second unit while also contributing solid rebounding and assist numbers. The downside is that the Magic have ranked 1st versus opposing bench units L20Games. But, while I still find it difficult to trust him, Wiggins is worth some shares on a small slate at these low-end salaries.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.5k | @ PHI

SF/SG Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.8k | vs. SAS

PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. BKN

SF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | @ GSW

PF Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. SAS

SF/SG Alex Caruso, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | @ PHI

PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. ORL

SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.3k | vs. BOS

PF/C Trey Lyles, SAC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. CHA

PF/C Dario Saric, GSW | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | vs. ORL (DK Preferred)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11k, FD: $12.5k | vs. CHI

EMBIID RETURNS! It’s only been a four-game absence, but that was enough to drive his DraftKings salary down to a flat $11k -- it’s lowest since November 8th. And, for what it’s worth, his $12,500 FanDuel price is about as low as he’s been for several weeks. There’s no reason to believe that Embiid will face any significant restrictions after not playing for 11 days. Before his injury, Embiid had scored at least 66.75 DKFP/65.7 FDFP in eight of his last nine starts. If you can scrounge up enough value, it makes plenty of sense to gain exposure to Embiid’s enormous floor/ceiling combo on this slate.

C Trayce Jackson-Davis, GSW | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.6k | vs. ORL

I’m probably spotlighting two of the most popular center plays on this slate but so be it. Jackson-Davis impressed Steve Kerr enough off of the bench in recent weeks that he’s earned a position in the newest Warriors’ starting lineup. He played 29 minutes against the Mavs on Saturday and put up a respectable 17/6/2 stat line which led to 29.0 DKFP/29.2 FDFP. Certainly not an eye-popping result, but TJD has averaged 1.15 FPPM on the season so if he continues to play nearly 30 minutes per game, he’ll surely put up gaudier numbers. Sure, it’s an ugly match-up with a strong defensive Orlando Magic team, but the low-end salaries make TJD a worthwhile option tonight.

Other Centers to Consider

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | vs. CHA

C Andre Drummond, CHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k | @ PHI

C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $6k, FD: $6k | @ SAC

C Sandro Mamukelashvili, SAS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.8k | @ MEM (DK Preferred)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Paolo Banchero MORE than 41.5 Fantasy Score

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MORE than 53.0 Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!