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Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 1/25 | Seven Games to Dive Into Tonight!
Top DFS Plays & Props for Thursday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Pick’Em Prop Offers 1 / 25 / 24 💸
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Another solid mid-sized slate hits the board today with seven games on tap. Five games will be tipping off at either 7:00 or 7:30 ET with the remaining two games in the late 10 o’clock ET window. Fortunately, the only late-game injury news we’ll need to monitor is the status of Anthony Davis and LeBron James, both are listed as questionable. Based on the trends of those two players this season, my guess is that one or both will end up playing. But make sure you’re prepared to make some adjustments if one or both are ruled out and they’re in your lineups. Other than that, we’ll be hoping for little-to-no blowout situations. The largest spread of the day is eight points and five games feature a spread under six points. Let’s get into the action and best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Jazz: None
Wizards: I. Livers - Questionable
76ers: T. Harris - Questionable, D. Melton - OUT, M. Bamba - OUT, M. Morris Sr. - Questionable, J. Springer - Probable, R. Covington - OUT
Pacers: T. Haliburton - OUT, J. Smith - Questionable
Timberwolves: M. Conley - Questionable
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, D. Sharpe - OUT
Nuggets: R. Jackson - Probable, J. Strawther - OUT
Knicks: I. Hartenstein - Questionable
Celtics: None
Heat: J. Jaquez Jr. - OUT, K. Love - Questionable
Kings: S. Vezenkov - OUT
Warriors: C. Paul - OUT, M. Moody - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT
Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, P. Williams - Probable
Lakers: A. Davis - Questionable, L. James - Questionable, C. Reddish - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. DEN
Brunson’s DFS salaries continue to climb but he’s been deserving of the gradual price bump. He has poured in 30+ points in five straight games and Brunson’s 34.35% USG% in that span ranks second on the slate, behind only the indomitable Joel Embiid. On paper, this may not set up as a desired match-up as the Nuggets have allowed the fewest FPPG to PG starters L20Games. However, Brunson and the Knicks are rolling, posting a 9-1 record over their last ten games. Brunson tends to have his best games at home and the Knicks should “get up” for this home match-up against the reigning NBA champs. Spending up at guard doesn’t feel like a priority today but Brunson has that 60+ FP upside that can take down GPPs at low ownership.
PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k | @ WAS
I can’t imagine this play is surprising anyone, especially if you’re primarily a DraftKings player where Sexton remains decidedly underpriced at $6,600. With the Jazz backcourt being fully healthy, Sexton isn’t consistently logging high minutes. But, over his last five games, he’s averaging exactly 30.0 Min/gm and a superb 1.40 FPPM in that span, resulting in 42.0 DKFP/gm and 40.7 FDFP/gm. And, of course, the match-up doesn’t get much sweeter. The Wizards not only rank 1st in pace and 29th in DEFRTG, but they’re also on the second leg of a back-to-back and most starters played full minutes in a fairly competitive game against the T-Wolves last night. Sexton will be chalk, even on FanDuel where he is more reasonably priced, but he’s going to be a tough target to completely pass on tonight.
PG/SG Alex Caruso, CHI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6k | @ LAL
Caruso sees only a slight usage increase with Zach LaVine (ankle/out) off the court, but his minutes will feel a bit more secure and he logged 33 minutes in the most recent Bulls game on Monday. Caruso is averaging a respectable 0.97 FPPM over his previous five games, and he’s been contributing particularly well in the premium stat categories in that span, averaging 3.8 STL+BLK/gm. The Lakers, Caruso’s former team, have also not defended starting SGs well, ranking 25th against the position L20Games. Much like the aforementioned Collin Sexton, Caruso is a bit too cheap at $5,100 on DraftKings but he’s still a viable option on FanDuel as well.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Stephen Curry, GSW | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.8k | vs. SAC (FD Preferred)
PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | @ GSW
PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | @ BKN (DK Preferred)
PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.1k | @ LAL
PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CHI (Preferred if Davis and/or LeBron are out)
PG/SG Derrick White, BOS | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.4k | @ MIA
SG Jordan Clarkson, UTA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | @ WAS
PG/SG Jrue Holiday, BOS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | @ MIA (DK Preferred)
PG/SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | @ GSW
PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. PHI
SG Kevin Huerter, SAC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.5k | @ GSW
PG/SF Kris Dunn, UTA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.1k | @ WAS
SG Corey Kispert, WAS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. UTA
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k | @ WAS
Markkanen’s disappointing 11-point performance against the Pels on Tuesday ended an eight-game streak in which he scored at least 21 points. He posted at least 48.5 DKFP/46.0 FDFP in six of those eight games. The Jazz roll with a deep rotation but Markkanen tends to lead the team in minutes played most nights and to say this is a quality bounce-back spot would be an understatement. As pointed out in Sexton’s spotlight, the Wizards continue to play at the fastest pace in the NBA while ranking 29th in DEFRTG, and they’re on the back end of a B2B. Markkanen will be another popular Jazz player today but he brings plenty of 50+ FP potential out of the $8k range.
PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | @ GSW
Murray always stands out as a worthwhile GPP target. His floor is low enough to where many people will be too hesitant to roster him but his ceiling is certainly high enough to be a part of a GPP-winning lineup. Murray has been finding more consistency in recent weeks and he has scored at least 28.5 DKFP/29.2 FDFP in eight of his last 10 games. In that 10-game span, he has put up at least 40.5 DKFP/39.7 FDFP on four occasions. Murray does own some fairly drastic home/road splits, and he’s averaging -25.1% fewer FPPG on the road. That said, he has logged at least 39 minutes in two previous match-ups against the Warriors this season and his results in those games would’ve been much better had he not gone a combined 3-18 (16.7%) from three-point range. Golden State also happens to rank 22nd against starting PFs L20Games and will be on the second leg of a B2B tonight. So, all-in-all, Murray cannot be considered a “safe” play, but he does bring 6x-8x upside to lineups today.
SF/PF Patrick Williams, CHI | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.2k | @ LAL
A guy like Patrick Williams is never an exciting play but there’s merit in simply being a competent starter who has a good chance to play 30+ minutes and return decent salary-based expected value; in this case, we’ll be hoping for 25-35 FP. The Lakers do rank 29th versus starting PFs L20Games and Williams put up 27.25 DKFP/27.6 FDFP against them back on Dec. 20th. If we get a similar score out of him tonight, it’ll be hard to complain. Worth noting, Williams is dealing with an ankle injury but is listed as “probable” to play today. He was also probable in the Bulls’ last game on Monday and he went on to play 32 minutes. As long as Williams isn’t downgraded in the meantime, there should be no concerns about his availability tonight.
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.3k | vs. CHI (Currently questionable)
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.8k | vs. CHI (Currently questionable - DK Preferred)
PF/C Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.1k | vs. DEN
PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.5k | @ BKN
SF/PG DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | @ LAL
SF/SG Mikal Bridges, BKN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. MIN
PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | vs. SAC
PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.3k | @ NYK
PF/C John Collins, UTA | DK: $5k, FD: $6.2k | @ WAS (DK Preferred)
PF Nicolas Batum, PHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.4k | @ IND
SF/PF Rui Hachimura, LAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.9k | vs. CHI (Only if LeBron is out + Rui starts)
SF/PF Simone Fontecchio, UTA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.8k | @ WAS
PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, LAL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. CHI (Preferred if Davis and/or LeBron are out)
PF/C Kelly Olynyk, UTA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.7k | @ WAS (DK Preferred)
PF Haywood Highsmith, MIA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. BOS (Only if starting)
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.6k | @ IND
Embiid needs no introduction and zero convincing that he’s a worthy DFS play tonight, just like any other night. If you missed out on his jaw-dropping 70-point performance against the Spurs on Monday, where he scored 105.5 DKFP/104.1 FDFP, well, I’m sorry. It will be a while before we see that kind of performance again, but you can’t put a price on the amount of safety you feel when inserting Embiid into your DFS lineups. He has scored at least 30 real points in 21 consecutive starts (usage over 41% in that span!) and Embiid should have little issue posting another elite performance against an uptempo Pacers team that ranks 2nd in pace. He has scored at least 68.0 DKFP/66.0 FDFP in two previous match-ups with Indiana this season. And, I’ll say it again, it’s mind-boggling that he’s still under $12,000 on DraftKings.
C Marvin Bagley III, WAS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.7k | vs. UTA
There are some excellent center/center-eligible players on this slate and the obvious plays like Joel Embiid are going to command most of the ownership. A guy like Marvin Bagley III will stand out from a contrarian perspective as he has seemingly found new life since coming over to the Wizards. He received two starts when Daniel Gafford was out for a couple of games and put up 46.75 DKFP/48.2 FDFP (@ NYK) and 42.0 DKFP/39.4 FDFP (vs. SAS). However, since reverting back to a bench role, he has put up one decent score and one excellent, GPP-winning type of score -- 24.25 DKFP/23.9 FDFP in 17 minutes versus Denver, followed by 38.75 DKFP/37.0 FDFP in 26 minutes versus Minnesota (note: Gafford did foul out in 21 minutes vs. MIN). It’d be great if his recent play was enough to bump him ahead of Daniel Gafford as the starter but that seems unlikely. However, if he handles mid-20s minutes again, based on how quickly he’s stuffing the stat sheet lately, that could be enough time to put up another 35+ FP showing. And it doesn’t hurt that the Jazz have ranked dead last against reserve units over their last 20 games. Washington being on the back end of a B2B may lead to more secure minutes for Bagley as well. He won’t be a safe option, but he makes for an intriguing upside contrarian play at these current DFS salaries.
Other Centers to Consider
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.3k, FD: $12.1k | @ NYK (Top pivot from Embiid chalk)
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.2k | @ GSW
C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.9k | vs. BOS
C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | @ BKN
C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.3k | @ WAS (DK Preferred)
PF/C Jalen Smith, IND | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.9k | vs. PHI (Currently questionable - DK Preferred)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Lauri Markkanen MORE than 41.0 Fantasy Score
Alex Caruso MORE than 24.5 Fantasy Score
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!