Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 1/3 | Ten Games on the Board Tonight!

Top DFS Plays & Props for Wednesday's NBA Action

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

A loaded NBA Wednesday hits the board with 10 games stacked up on today’s main slate! Technically, there are 12 NBA games today, but both DraftKings and FanDuel have elected to exclude the two 10 o’clock ET match-ups on their respective main slates. Perhaps I’m misremembering, but I can’t recall these late games being nixed off of main slates in previous seasons. A bit strange but, personally, I prefer a 10-gamer over a more hectic 12-gamer. There are still an infinite amount of ways to attack this one! This slate does not contain a crazy amount of injuries but there is some potential value that can open up if some of these “questionable” guys get downgraded to “out.” As always, stay tuned for the latest injury news that drops throughout the afternoon/evening. Best of luck!

 

Today’s Key Injuries

Bucks: K. Middleton - Questionable, P. Connaughton - Questionable, J. Crowder - OUT, AJ Green - OUT

Pacers: B. Brown - Questionable, A. Nembhard - Questionable

Wizards: None

Cavaliers: D. Garland - OUT, E. Mobley - OUT

Thunder: None

Hawks: D. Hunter - OUT

Raptors: None

Grizzlies: D. Rose - Questionable

Pelicans: T. Murphy III - Questionable

Timberwolves: None

Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, L. Walker IV - OUT, D. Smith Jr. - Questionable

Rockets: T. Eason - OUT, D. Brooks - OUT

Trailblazers: A. Simons - Questionable, D. Ayton - OUT, T. Camara - Questionable, D. Reath - Questionable, M. Brown - Questionable

Mavericks: D. Exum - OUT, M. Kleber - OUT, R. Holmes - Questionable

Bulls: N. Vucevic - OUT, C. White - Questionable, Z. LaVine - OUT, P. Williams - Questionable

Knicks: M. Flynn - OUT

Pistons: I. Stewart - OUT

Jazz: None

Clippers: None

Suns: K. Durant - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. WAS

Spida Mitchell is heading into this slate without an injury designation. With the Cavs continuing to play without two of their top players (Darius Garland & Evan Mobley), Mitchell has shouldered more of the offensive workload than he already does. Over his previous five games, Mitchell is averaging 30.0 PPG on 23.2 FGA/gm, 8.2 APG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.4 STL+BLK/gm while playing 40.0 Min/gm. That all works out to 54.7 DKFP/53.8 FDFP per game and a 1.37 FPPM average. We have no choice but to love the match-up for Spida today with the Wizards being in town. Nothing has changed with Washington -- they continue to play at the NBA’s fastest pace while ranking dead last in DEFRTG. They also rank 29th versus opposing PGs L20Games. Mitchell is also averaging +9.7% more FPPG at home this season. The only real concern would be a potential blowout as the Cavs are 10-point home favorites. However, that’s far from a massive spread and there’s a very real chance that the Wizards can hang around in this game since the Cavs are still down a couple of their starters. All-in-all, Mitchell feels like a great play today, especially at his $9,500 price tag on DraftKings.

 

PG/SG Jaden Ivey, DET | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | @ UTA

There is no doubt we have plenty of elite studs to choose from at the guard positions on this slate, but once you delve into the mid-range, things get a bit muddled. So, I’m not opposed to rolling with some fairly under-the-radar guys out of this range. Ivey should be around, or under, 10% owned tonight and he’ll have some real appeal at his $6k/$6.2k salaries. Since re-entering the starting rotation seven games ago, Ivey has scored no fewer than 26.26 DKFP/26.0 FDFP in any one game and he has eclipsed 44.0 DKFP/40.0 FDFP in three of his last six starts. The Jazz have ranked 26th (L20Games) versus opposing shooting guards and Ivey lit them up six games ago for a 24/5/7 stat line, which included five combined steals/blocks (49.25 DKFP/50.5 FDFP). Blowouts are always a concern with this historically bad Pistons team but they’re “only” +8.5 underdogs today -- a close spread, by their standards. If this game stays competitive and Ivey plays 30+ minutes, he brings plenty of 40+ FP upside to DFS lineups at low ownership tonight. At the very least, I don’t believe he’ll burn you based on his recent floor.

PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. MIL

This could be a McConnell slate but we’ll need further injury news before we can comfortably load him into lineups. Bruce Brown (knee/questionable) has been out for the previous five games while Andrew Nembhard (back/questionable) seems to be on the wrong side of his questionable designation. Nembhard exited the most recent game (also against the Bucks) due to injury after logging just eight minutes. McConnell ended up playing 22 minutes and dropped 36.5 DKFP/37.3 FDFP in that time. Most seasoned NBA DFS players are aware that McConnell provides excellent fantasy production on a per-minute basis, but he generally needs some injuries to the Pacers' backcourt to see any extended run. It will be preferred if both Bruce Brown AND Nembhard are out tonight, but it may just take Nembhard being out for McConnell to fall into play, especially at a mere $4,000 on DraftKings. If Brown and Nembhard are both active, McConnell will likely be too risky to play.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.6k | vs. POR

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.5k | @ ATL

PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.3k | vs. OKC

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.2k | vs. MIL

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.5k | vs. NOP

PG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.2k | @ UTA

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. POR

PG/SG Immanuel Quickley, TOR | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.5k | @ MEM

SG Jordan Clarkson, UTA | DK: $6k, FD: $7.2k | vs. DET (DK Preferred)

PG/SG Josh Giddey, OKC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | @ ATL

SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, IND | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIL (Only if B. Brown & A. Nembhard are out)

SG Sam Merrill, CLE | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. WAS

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.9k, FD: $12.5k | @ IND

It’s no secret that these Bucks/Pacers showdowns have been fantasy gold mines this season. In four previous match-ups between these teams this year, the combined scores have hit 235, 266, 247, and 250 points -- and we have another enormous, slate-leading 256.5 over/under here today. The Greek Freak is wrecking shop versus the Pacers, averaging 75.4 DKFP/72.9 FDFP against them this season. History isn’t guaranteed to repeat itself and Giannis is the most expensive forward on the slate, by a wide margin, but if he explodes for another 75+ fantasy points, you don’t want to miss the boat!

PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.9k | vs. OKC

Over his last two games, Jalen Johnson is averaging 20 PPG, 14 RPG, 4 APG, and 36 Min/gm. He receives a slight boost from the continued absence of De’Andre Hunter (knee/out). Johnson will fall to third or fourth in the usage pecking order behind Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, and Bogdan Bogdanovic (when he comes in off the bench) but his ability to crash the boards against a poor rebounding team like the Thunder (29th in rebounding%) could lead to another strong double-double performance. This game is virtually a toss-up, with the Hawks being slight one-point home favorites, and the 248.5 over/under trails only the Bucks/Pacers match-up on this slate. It would seem wise to gain exposure to this game and Jalen Johnson is a fairly affordable way of doing just that.

 

SF/PF Simone Fontecchio, UTA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5k | vs. DET

Is a player like Fontecchio overly reliable? No. But does he provide 6x (or better) GPP-winning upside at his current DFS salaries? I’d say so. Fontecchio has landed back-to-back perfect lineup performances heading into this juicy match-up with the 3-30 Pistons. He secured 30.25 DKFP/32.4 FDFP against the Heat on Saturday and followed that up with 41.5 DKFP/42.2 FDFP against the Mavs on New Year’s Day. Utah’s starting lineup has seen its fair share of changes throughout the season but Fontecchio seems to be finding a groove in the main rotation lately. He won’t be immune to a dud performance, but it would seem less likely against this Pistons team that ranks 26th in DEFRTG and 24th versus starting SFs L20Games.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.6k | @ MEM

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.1k | @ PHX

SF/PG Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.1k | vs. DET

SF/SG Khris Middleton, MIL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.4k | @ IND (Currently questionable)

SF/SG Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. WAS (DK Preferred)

SF/PF OG Anunoby, NYK | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.3k | vs. CHI

PF Jabari Walker, POR | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | @ DAL (Potential boost pending further POR injury news)

PF/C Chimezie Metu, PHX | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. LAC (Assuming he continues to start for KD)

SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $5k, FD: $5.3k | @ ATL

SF/PF Isaac Okoro, CLE | DK: $5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. WAS

PF/C Bol Bol, PHX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. LAC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.7k | vs. WAS

Allen is fairly priced on FanDuel but his $7,800 DraftKings salary probably isn’t high enough given his recent production. With the continued absence of Evan Mobley (knee/out), Allen has little competition for rebounds and he also receives a slight usage boost with both Mobley and Darius Garland (jaw/out) off the floor. Allen is averaging an astounding 55.1 DKFP/gm over his last four starts and, of course, he draws a dream match-up against the Wizards. As mentioned, Washington continues to have the worst defense in the NBA and they get eaten up by opposing bigs thanks to ranking dead last in rebounding% and allowing the second-most points in the paint per game.

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.9k | @ MEM

Poeltl has had plenty of ups and downs throughout the season but he has hit a stride recently, scoring at least 34.5 DKFP/34.5 FDFP in three consecutive games. We’re still in the early stages of seeing how Toronto is operating since their recent trade with the Knicks (OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, and Malachi Flynn for Immanuel Quickley & RJ Barrett) but the exodus of Precious Achiuwa does take one more big body out of the picture for the Raptors, which could result in more consistent minutes for Poeltl. The Grizzlies are on the second leg of a back-to-back and have ranked bottom 10 versus centers L20Games, so this will set up as a quality match-up for Poeltl.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. BKN

C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k | @ UTA

C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. OKC (DK Preferred)

C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k | @ IND

C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DET (DK Preferred)

(Also, depending on who else might be out, whoever starts at center for the Trailblazers tonight could end up providing value -- Duop Reath, Moses Brown, or Ibou Badji)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

OG Anunoby MORE than 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Jarrett Allen MORE than 22.5 Fantasy Score (1st Half)

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!