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Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 1/30 | Injury Impacts Galore on Tuesday's Five-Game Slate
Top DFS Plays & Props for Tuesday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
In standard Tuesday fashion, we’ll have a smaller but high-quality five-game slate on tap for this evening! Aside from the Jazz, every team on this slate will have at least one notable injury to monitor and we’ll absolutely need to monitor news as it releases throughout the day and into the evening. The entire slate outlook could flip at a moment’s notice, so stay on your toes! Let’s knock out a quick newsletter for this five-gamer and try to crack the code. Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable (“plans to play”), M. Turner - Questionable, B. Mathurin - Questionable, TJ McConnell - OUT, J. Smith - Questionable
Celtics: K. Porzingis - Questionable, A. Horford - OUT, L. Kornet - Doubtful
Lakers: L. James - Questionable, A. Davis - OUT, C. Reddish - OUT
Hawks: D. Murray - Questionable, D. Hunter - Questionable
Jazz: None
Knicks: J. Randle - OUT, OG Anunoby - Questionable
Raptors: RJ Barrett - OUT, I. Quickley - Doubtful, J. Poeltl - Questionable
Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, P. Williams - OUT
76ers: J. Embiid - Questionable, T. Maxey - OUT, D. Melton - OUT, N. Batum - OUT, M. Morris Sr. - Questionable
Warriors: C. Paul - OUT, M. Moody - OUT, G. Payton II - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. LAL
It’ll be difficult to overlook this Hawks/Lakers match-up which features a fairly close spread (ATL: -5) and a massive slate-leading 247.5 O/U. After missing three starts in a four-game stretch due to an illness and a concussion, Young has posted back-to-back 30-point double-doubles heading into tonight’s match-up. The Lakers, who are on the second leg of a back-to-back, are near the bottom of the league when it comes to defending primary ball handlers and scorers -- they’ve ranked 27th against starting PGs L20Games. Young would also see a sizable usage bump should Dejounte Murray (hamstring/questionable) be ruled out for a second consecutive game.
PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7k | vs. TOR
These sub-$8k salaries are comfortable price points for Coby White, who should continue to handle an expanded role while Zach LaVine (ankle/out) continues to miss time. White isn’t the most efficient per-minute fantasy scorer but there’s something to be said about being locked into huge minutes every night. He has played at least 41 minutes in three consecutive games (no games went to OT) and 35 minutes feels like the floor, assuming there is no early blowout to factor in. White is a solid all-around contributor in points, assists, and rebounds, and he lands a quality match-up against a Raptors team that has allowed the most FPPG to starting PGs over their last 10 games. I’d ballpark 35 FP being White’s floor, 40-50 FP being the likely outcome, and 50+ FP being a lower-end possibility.
SG/SF Gradey Dick, TOR | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k | @ CHI
RJ Barrett (knee/out) has already been ruled out tonight and Immanuel Quickley (quads/doubtful) is unlikely to play as well. Other Raptors players like Dennis Schroder, Bruce Brown, and Gary Trent Jr. could be considered “safer” options and I have no issues with any of those guys, specifically Schroder and Brown. But Gradey Dick is likely to pick up solid minutes off of the Raptors’ bench -- with both Barrett and Quickley out in Sunday’s game against the Hawks, he logged 25 minutes and put up 28.25 DKFP/26.5 FDFP. That was a much better match-up against a fast-paced Hawks team, and the Bulls continue to rank dead last in pace. But it’s worth noting, that the last game was a close 125-126 finish, so Dick wasn’t benefiting from extra minutes due to a blowout. He’ll be more of a gamble, but if he plays another 25-ish minutes tonight, Dick could post up another quality result and he’s particularly intriguing at just $3,600 on DraftKings.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | vs. UTA
PG Stephen Curry, GSW | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.1k | vs. PHI
PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | @ ATL
PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.6k | @ NYK (DK Preferred)
SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. LAL (Only if D. Murray is out)
PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.5k | @ ATL
PG/SG Alex Caruso, CHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.2k | vs. TOR
SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo, NYK | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.1k | vs. UTA
PG Dennis Schroder, TOR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.6k | @ CHI (DK Preferred)
PG Patrick Beverley, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.8k | @ GSW (Assuming he continues to start)
PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.7k | vs. TOR (Preferred if he continues to start)
SG/SF Quentin Grimes, NYK | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. UTA
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10k | vs. IND
My thoughts may change once we get some additional injury-related news, but this doesn’t feel like a slate where we necessarily have to force any of the star players into our DFS lineups. That being said, Jayson Tatum looks like a strong option if you’re spending up. His $9,200 DraftKings salary is extremely enticing, especially if Kristaps Porzingis (ankle/questionable) misses a third consecutive game. In 276 minutes with Porzingis and Al Horford (out) off the floor this season, Tatum has handled a +4.8% usage bump. The Pacers remain the second-fastest paced team in the NBA and Tatum has averaged 60.4 DKFP in three games against Indiana this season. Acquiring Pascal Siakam has strengthened the Pacers’ frontcourt defense and Tatum did just play 38 minutes in last night's game against the Pelicans. But, in multiple instances this season, Tatum has put up some of his best fantasy results on the second leg of back-to-backs and it doesn’t hurt that the Celtics are at home, where they’ve posted a 21-2 record this season. I’d pin Tatum as a solid play on FanDuel, but a potentially great play on DraftKings, especially if Porzingis is out once again.
PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | vs. LAL
A well-rounded and balanced approach may be the way to go today and Jalen Johnson could be a quality piece to roll with out of the mid-range. He’s locked into major minutes (37.4 Min/gm L5Games) and typically scores over an FPPM. He would take on a slight usage increase if Dejounte Murray (questionable) is ruled out. The Lakers have also been generous to opposing power forwards, ranking 27th against the position L20Games. They also won’t have the rim protection prowess of Anthony Davis (Achilles/out), who will miss the second leg of the back-to-back. If this game plays out as expected, which, admittedly, is a hard ask when it comes to NBA DFS, then Jalen Johnson should bring a solid floor and decent upside to lineups tonight.
SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. PHI
Kuminga has been in and out of the Warriors starting lineup but some fantastic recent play off of the bench has him bumped back up to a starting role. In a five-game stretch between Jan. 12th and Jan 25th, Kuminga averaged 25.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, and 1.8 STL+BLK/gm in 28.4 Min/gm off of the bench. He then landed a start in the most recent game, logging 43 minutes (game did go to OT) and posting 36.25 DKFP/33.8 FDFP. It is safe to assume that his usage will take a hit while playing more with the starters but, assuming he retains his starting position, his minutes allotment will be more secured. The 76ers rank mid-pack versus power forwards and their defensive rating takes a hit with Tyrese Maxey out and Joel Embiid in danger of missing a third consecutive game. As is typically the case, FanDuel is quicker to adjust player salaries when they show added upside over a multi-game span. But Kuminga remains in play on FanDuel and looks like a bargain at his sub-$6k salary on DraftKings.
Other Forwards to Consider
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.3k | @ ATL (Currently questionable)
SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. IND
SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. TOR
PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. PHI
SF/PF Saddiq Bey, ATL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | vs. LAL
SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6k | vs. UTA
SF/PF Andrew Wiggins, GSW | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. PHI
PF/C Jalen Smith, IND | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | @ BOS (Currently questionable - Preferred if M. Turner is out + Smith starts)
PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, LAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.4k | @ ATL
SF/PF Jordan Nwora, TOR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5k | @ CHI
SF/PF Rui Hachimura, LAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.6k | @ ATL
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TOR
Center is a fairly weak position today, particularly if Joel Embiid remains out, but we can typically trust Vucevic to bring a strong floor/ceiling combo at these sub-$8k salaries. Vucevic racked up 59.5 DKFP/60.3 FDFP against this same Raptors team 12 days ago. Toronto may get Jakob Poeltl (ankle/questionable) back tonight after he missed the last ten games, but he may face a minutes restriction even if he does suit up. The Raptors frontcourt has been an exploitable match-up for opposing bigs ever since they traded away Pascal Siakam and haven’t had Poeltl available. They’ve ranked 24th versus starting centers L20Games and have allowed 1.33 FPPM to the position over their last ten games.
C Christian Wood, LAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5k | @ ATL
This game is a 7:30 ET tip-off so we’ll know who the Lakers choose to go with in the starting lineup in place of Anthony Davis (out). Multiple players could theoretically land the starting nod, and Wood has only started in one game this season, but I believe he’s a good bet regardless of whether he starts or plays off the bench tonight. He’s averaging a strong 1.09 FPPM L20Games and he should be one of the more well-rested Laker contributors after logging just 10 minutes last night. The Hawks routinely provide a strong fantasy-scoring atmosphere thanks to their fast pace and lackluster defense. Atlanta has also ranked 24th versus starting centers L20Games. If he can play around 24 minutes tonight, Wood should quite easily exceed salary-based expectations.
Other Centers to Consider
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $12k, FD: $12.3k | @ GSW (Currently questionable)
C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. LAL
C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.1k | @ GSW (Only if Embiid is out + Reed starts)
C Thaddeus Young, TOR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.2k | @ CHI (Only if Poeltl is out + Young starts)
C Neemias Queta, BOS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. IND (Only if Porzingis is out)
C Jaxson Hayes, LAL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | @ ATL (Boost if starting)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Jonathan Kuminga MORE than 25.5 Points + Rebounds
John Collins MORE than 24.5 Fantasy Score
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!