Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon 

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Happy Humpday! A nine-game main slate draws our attention today so strap in for a busy night of NBA action! There is one late island game between the Bucks/Trailblazers (10:00 ET) which both DraftKings and FanDuel have elected to exclude from their main slates, so the latest tip-off for this evening’s slate will be 8:30 ET. We’ll have plenty of news to track from an injury perspective, especially with the Thunder. The Mavericks have also ruled out several key starters, including Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Expect heavy ownership to land on the healthy/cheap Mavs’ players, even though they’re going up against the NBA’s best defensive team. Let’s get busy! Best of luck!

Update: The OKC injury report has since been cleared up and they’ll only be without Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe tonight.

Today’s Key Injuries

• Clippers: P. George - Questionable, I. Zubac - OUT

• Wizards: L. Shamet - OUT

• Bulls: Z. LaVine - OUT, P. Williams - OUT, D. Terry - OUT, T. Craig - Doubtful

• Hornets: L. Ball - Doubtful, M. Bridges - Probable, G. Hayward - OUT, M. Williams - OUT

• Pistons: C. Cunningham - Probable, I. Stewart - OUT

• Cavaliers: J. Allen - Questionable, D. Garland - Questionable, T. Thompson - OUT

• Kings: S. Vezenkov - Questionable

• Heat: D. Robinson - OUT

• Magic: G. Harris - OUT

• Spurs: K. Johnson - Questionable, Z. Collins - Questionable

• Nuggets: N. Jokic - OUT, J. Strawther - OUT

• Thunder: Jal. Williams - OUT, I. Joe - OUT

• Mavericks: L. Doncic - OUT, K. Irving - OUT, D. Exum - Doubtful, D. Lively II - OUT, D. Jones Jr. - Doubtful

• Timberwolves: M. Conley - Questionable

• Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, H. Jones - Questionable

• Rockets: T. Eason - OUT

• Suns: G. Allen - Questionable, B. Bol - Questionable

• Nets: B. Simmons - Questionable, D. Sharpe - OUT, D. Finney-Smith - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Fred VanVleet, HOU | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NOP

I can’t say that I’m overly attached to the idea of spending up at guard today. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.1k) is an interesting option on DraftKings at a sub-$10k price tag. Devin Booker (DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.8k) has also had some monster games over the last week and could always pop off again. But I won’t force a spotlight on any of those guys today. Instead, we’ll drop to the mid-range and give the volatile Fred VanVleet a look. Yes, his range of outcomes is wide, so I wouldn’t necessarily trust him in a cash game lineup, but he’ll be in a quality spot to push for a ceiling-type game today. To begin with, the game environment itself is strong. The 232.5 over/under is tied for the second-highest on the slate and there’s also a narrow two-point spread in this contest. The match-up itself may not jump off the page, but the Pelicans have been struggling against opposing point guard starters lately. They’re allowing 1.48 FPPM to PG starters over their last ten games, which currently ranks dead last in the NBA. VanVleet typically averages just over an FPPM but if he ever gets hot shooting the ball, or racks up multiple steals/blocks, he’s certainly capable of a 50+ FP game given the fact that he plays huge minutes in competitive games. There should be some clear guard chalk today, so a high-upside player like FVV should fly in under 10% ownership.

SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.4k | @ MIN

… And we’ll bring up one of those chalk plays right here. Yes, the match-up is rough (MIN: 1st in DEFRTG) and yes the Mavs (+12.5) are a heavy underdog. But there is simply too much usage on the table that a player like Tim Hardaway Jr. will have to soak up. If we just look at THJ’s splits when only Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been off the floor this season (213.6 minutes), we’ll see that his usage goes up +12.3 percentage points and he averages +12.6 fantasy points per 32 minutes. Now, if we take away the other guys who are either out or doubtful (Dereck Lively II, Dante Exum, and Derrick Jones Jr.), we’ll get a much smaller sample size (37.7 minutes), but see that THJ’s usage increases by +16.4 percentage points and +21.6 FP per 32 minutes. Hardaway has also scored at least 51.0 DKFP/45.4 FDFP in three of his last five starts and his DFS salaries are not adjusted to reflect the sort of heavily expanded role he should take on tonight. So, yeah, this should be some chalk worth eating.

SG Kevin Huerter, SAC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.3k | @ MIA

I’ve been playing a good bit of Huerter lately but have been hesitant to give him a newsletter spotlight because I just know he’s due for a bust night. Hopefully, that won’t be the case today. After falling in and out of the rotation and seeing a significant drop in usage, Huerter has been playing exceptionally well lately for a player at these DFS prices. He’s up to a 1.04 FPPM average over his last five starts (33.0 Min/gm) and he has secured at least 33.5 DKFP/34.3 FDFP in five of his last seven games, with a ceiling of 49.0 DKFP/44.5 FDFP (@ MIL) in that span. He’s shooting a red-hot 48.2% from three-point range across those seven games while averaging eight 3PA/gm. Match-up-wise, Miami doesn’t necessarily allow a high opponent 3P% (37.1%, 14th highest). However, 36.6% of opponent points against Miami come via the three, which is the 2nd highest mark in the NBA. Miami also checks in at 24th versus starting SGs L20Games. So, realistically, this sets up as a strong match-up for Huerter and this game also features the closest spread of the day (SAC: +1.5).

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, SAC | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.1k | vs. DEN (DK Preferred)

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.8k | @ BKN

PG James Harden, LAC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.4k | @ WAS (Preferred if P. George is out)

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.1k | vs. DAL

PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k | @ OKC (Boost with no Jokic)

PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.6k | @ CHA

SG/SF Brandon Miller, CHA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | vs. CHI

PG/SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NOP

PG/SG Terry Rozier, MIA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. SAC

PG Tre Jones, SAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. ORL

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.7k | @ CHA (DK Preferred)

PG/SG Jaden Hardy, DAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.1k | @ MIN (More DAL chalk)

PG Reggie Jackson, DEN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5k | @ OKC (DK Preferred)

SG/SF AJ Lawson, DAL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.7k | @ MIN (Risky GPP Punt Play)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k | @ WAS

As usual, any team facing the Wizards is going to carry some DFS appeal. Washington leads the NBA in pace, allows a league-high 124.0 PPG, and ranks 28th in DEFRTG. Paul George (groin/questionable) is also iffy to play today. George hasn’t looked 100% lately and has played 30 minutes or fewer in four consecutive games, and this would seem like a good opportunity for the Clippers to give him a day off. Leonard is in a quality spot regardless but he could see some added usage if George is eventually ruled out. He’s secured at least 46.25 DKFP/47.4 FDFP in three of his last four starts and has a 1.33 FPPM average across his L20Starts. He’s in play on FanDuel but his $8,200 DraftKings salary is a bit of a head-scratcher.

SF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | vs. SAC

Jimmy Buckets may not be having his best season but the fact that he’s hit a season-low $7,200 price point on DraftKings is a bit comedic. He’ll be less of a priority on FanDuel, but it’s simply a can’t-miss salary on DK. After a few down games, Butler heads into this match-up on the heels of back-to-back strong performances -- 50.5 DKFP @ NYK and 45.0 DKFP vs. PHX. Butler is also averaging 39.8 DKFP at home this season, which is a +17.4% increase over his FPPG on the road (33.9 DKFP/gm). The Kings have ranked 24th against starting SFs L20Games and, as mentioned in Huerter’s write-up, this could be one of the more competitive games on the slate based on the 1.5-point spread.

PF/C Peyton Watson, DEN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.6k | @ OKC

If you want to pivot away from some of the cheap Mavs chalk, Peyton Watson could be a value forward-eligible player to keep in mind. Nikola Jokic will be missing his first game since Nov. 27th and, while Deandre Jordan will almost certainly earn the start (and make for a go-to value play), Watson could handle a few extra minutes and/or an increased role off of the Nuggets bench. Watson has averaged a solid, albeit uninspiring, 0.87 FPPM L20Games but he has shown that he can stuff the stat sheet in a hurry at times this season. My guess is Watson will log at least 24 minutes tonight and could push for around 28 minutes. The 24 minutes Watson played back on that Nov. 27th game that Jokic sat out was a then-season-high and he has since become a more stable part of the Nuggets’ bench rotation while making a couple of spot starts along the way as well.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.3k | vs. ORL (DK Preferred)

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.7k | @ SAS

PF/C Miles Bridges, CHA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CHI

PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. DAL

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | @ CHA

SF/SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.5k | @ HOU (Preferred if Z. Williamson is out)

SF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | @ SAS

PF/C PJ Washington, CHA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.3k | vs. CHI

SF/PF Josh Green, DAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.7k | @ MIN

SF Cody Martin, CHA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CHI (DK Preferred)

PF Grant Williams, DAL | DK: $4k, FD: $4.8k | @ MIN

PF/C Jonathan Isaac, ORL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4k | @ SAS

SF/PF Corey Kispert, WAS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. LAC

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | @ CHA

Vucevic and the Bulls head into tonight’s game on the second leg of the back-to-back, however, some of his best games this season have come on the tail ends of B2Bs so I wouldn’t say it’s a major concern. It doesn’t hurt that the Bulls draw a cakewalk match-up against a Hornets team that ranks dead last in DEFRTG, allows the 7th most points in the paint per game, and ranks 27th in rebounding%. Alongside Zach LaVine (ankle/out), the Bulls will be without a few role players like Patrick Williams, Dalen Terry, and Torrey Craig (doubtful). Vucecvic has averaged +5.4 fantasy points per 32 minutes with those players off the court this season. We’ll like his sub-$8k price points on both sites and anything below a double-double and 40 FP score would be a significant surprise.

C DeAndre Jordan, DEN | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ OKC

With Jokic being ruled out, DeAndre Jordan becomes one of the most obvious plays of the day but he may be some more necessary chalk that you almost can’t afford to fade. Assuming Jordan starts and plays 24+ minutes, I see almost zero scenarios in which he doesn’t return massive value tonight. When he started in place of Jokic back on Nov. 27th, he ended with a 21/13/5 stat line with three combined steals/blocks across 34 minutes. That game netted Jordan 51.25 DKFP/51.2 FDFP. It’d be a tall order for the veteran center to turn in a similar performance tonight, but it’s completely doable if he plays starter’s minutes.

Other Centers to Consider

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. NOP (DK Preferred)

C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. PHX

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. DAL (DK Preferred)

C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | @ SAS

C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CHI

C Mason Plumlee, LAC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.9k | @ WAS

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Alex Caruso MORE than 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (1st Half)

Tim Hardaway Jr. MORE than 33.5 Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!