- LineStar® Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 1/5 | Dissecting a Busy Friday Slate
Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 1/5 | Dissecting a Busy Friday Slate
Top DFS Plays & Props for Friday's NBA Action
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Top DFS Offers 1/5/24 💸
Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.
Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A busy NBA Friday rolls around. Depending on your DFS site of choice, you’ll either be looking at an 11-game slate (DraftKings) or an eight-game slate (FanDuel). For the purposes of this newsletter, we’ll keep the general focus on the eight mutually shared games but be sure not to neglect those three later games if you’re on DraftKings! Let’s kick off the weekend with a bang! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Jazz: None
Celtics: A. Horford - OUT
Hawks: D. Hunter - OUT
Pacers: B. Brown - Questionable, A. Nembhard - OUT
Thunder: None
Nets: B. Simmons - OUT, L. Walker IV - Probable, D. Smith Jr. - Probable
Knicks: M. Flynn - Questionable
76ers: D. Melton - OUT, R. Covington - Questionable, F. Korkmaz - Questionable
Wizards: L. Shamet - OUT
Cavaliers: D. Garland - OUT, E. Mobley - OUT
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, G. Hayward - OUT, M. Williams - OUT
Bulls: A. Caruso - Probable, P. Willaims - Probable
Clippers: None
Pelicans: T. Murphy III - Questionable
Timberwolves: None
Rockets: T. Eason - OUT, D. Brooks - OUT
DK Main Slate Only
Trailblazers: D. Ayton - OUT, J. Walker - Doubtful, M. Brown - OUT
Mavericks: L. Doncic - Questionable, D. Exum - OUT, D. Lively II - Questionable, G. Willaims - Questionable, M. Morris - Questionable, M. Kleber - OUT, R. Holmes - OUT
Magic: F. Wagner - OUT, W. Carter Jr. - Questionable, M. Fultz - OUT, G. Harris - OUT, J. Isaac - OUT, J. Ingles - OUT
Nuggets: R. Jackson - Probable
Heat: J. Butler - OUT, C. Martin - Doubtful, H. Highsmith - OUT
Suns: K. Durant - Questionable, E. Gordon - Questionable, N. Little - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.4k | vs. ATL
Rest assured that everyone will be all over this Pacers/Hawks match-up today, and for good reason. The total here is enormous with a 262 over/under and when these teams met back on November 21st, they combined for an eye-popping 309 points… in regulation! Haliburton accounted for 37 of those points along with 16 assists, five rebounds, three steals, and a block, resulting in 78.25 DKFP/73 FDFP. We can’t count on a repeat performance but Haliburton is on a tear right now, scoring at least 58.75 DKFP/55.2 FDFP in six consecutive games while averaging over 1.75 FPPM. Both of these teams rank top five in pace (IND: 1st, ATL: 5th), bottom five in DEFRTG (IND: 28th, ATL: 26th), and the Hawks have ranked 29th versus PGs L20Games. Ownership will match Haliburton’s high expectations today but he’s a can’t-miss option in this likely shootout.
PG/SG Derrick White, BOS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. UTA
I don’t want to focus too much on that Pacers/Hawks game since it is a fairly obvious game to load up on. So, for the mid-range guard play, we’ll put Derrick White in the spotlight. White has found a nice groove in this Celtics lineup lately, scoring at least 39.5 DKFP/38.0 FDFP in six of his previous eight starts while averaging 1.32 FPPM in that stretch. The Celtics have been a machine at home this season with a perfect 16-0 record and White has shot over 44% from three-point range at home. The Celtics’ 126.5 implied team total is also the third-highest on the slate, behind the Hawks and Pacers. Finally, the Jazz have ranked 24th versus starting SGs L20Games so we should be on the lookout for another quality performance for White this evening.
SG Sam Merrill, CLE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. WAS
Pending further injury news, there isn’t much to love about the value at the guard positions today. However, Sam Merrill is affordable and did log 29 minutes off of the bench against this same Wizards team on Wednesday, ending his night with 27.75 DKFP/26.0 FDFP. A 39-point Cavs blowout win was responsible for some of Merrill’s added minutes late in the game but he has seen some extended run off of the bench while Darius Garland (jaw/out) has been sidelined. It’s also not a crazy proposition that the Cavs could win in blowout fashion again tonight. Merrill is averaging a respectable 0.94 FPPM this season so if he can earn around 24 minutes tonight, he could be well on his way to another strong outing.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11.6k, FD: N/A | vs. POR (DK Slate Only)
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.7k | @ BKN (DK Preferred)
PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.2k | @ IND
PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.6k | vs. WAS
PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.7k | @ HOU
PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $8.4k, FD: N/A | vs. POR (DK Slate Only)
PG/SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | @ CHI
PG/SG Tyler Herro, MIA | DK: $8.1k, FD: N/A | @ PHX (DK Slate Only)
PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $7.8k, FD: N/A | @ DAL (DK Slate Only)
PG/SG Dejounte Murray, ATL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | @ IND
PG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k | vs. LAC
SG/SF Max Strus, CLE | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. WAS
SG/SF Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.5k | vs. WAS (DK Preferred)
SG Jordan Clarkson, UTA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k | @ BOS (DK Preferred)
SG/SF Bruce Brown, IND | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. ATL (Currently questionable)
PG TJ McConnell, IND | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.6k | vs. ATL (DK Preferred -- Extra bump if B. Brown is out)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | @ NOP
Leonard always seems to fly under the radar at low ownership despite playing excellent over his last nine starts. In that stretch, Leonard is averaging 31.2 PPG and has scored at least 44.0 DKFP/43.6 FDFP in eight of those games, including five performances of at least 53.5 DKFP/54.1 FDFP. There won’t be a ton of attention on this game despite its solid 230.5 over/under and one-point spread, which is the closest on the slate. With so much attention and salary being devoted to that Pacers/Hawks showdown, keep Kawhi Leonard in mind for GPPs, where he’ll check in at < 10% ownership.
PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | @ HOU
KAT has been in a shooting slump lately and is averaging just 0.91 FPPM and 28.0 DKFP/25.1 FDFP over his last five games. Fortunately, that has driven his DFS salaries down to season lows on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Towns has been a $9k+ player at times this season so seeing these sub-$8k salaries is a bit of a surprise, and the $7,200 tag on DraftKings is especially jarring. Towns has taken a clear back seat to Anthony Edwards as the team’s top scoring option but if he plays mid-30s minutes, he could easily out-perform his current salaries.
SF Luguentz Dort, OKC | DK: $5k, FD: $5.5k | @ BKN
Dort is not immune to a routine dud, but he brings plenty of 6x (or better) upside at his $5k/$5.5k salaries. Small forward is also a great position to attack the Nets. They’ve ranked 29th versus the position over their last 20 games, and Dort has averaged 35.3 DKFP/32.9 FDFP in his last three games against the Nets. Perhaps he’s not the most exciting play, but if you want to get up to studs like Tyrese Haliburton and Trae Young in the big match-up of the day, then rostering a guy like Dort will go a long way in helping you get those big-time players in your lineups.
Other Forwards to Consider
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | vs. UTA
PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | @ PHI
PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8.7k, FD: N/A | @ DEN (DK Slate Only)
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.1k | vs. UTA
PF Miles Bridges, CHA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | @ CHI
PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.2k | @ IND
SF/SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.4k | @ IND
SF/PF Simone Fontecchio, UTA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.2k | @ BOS
PF/C Obi Toppin, IND | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.4k | vs. ATL
PF/C Nikola Jovic, MIA | DK: $4.4k, FD: N/A | @ PHX (DK Slate Only)
PF/C Bol Bol, PHX | DK: $3.8k, FD: N/A | vs. MIA (Only if KD is out again - DK Slate Only)
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.2k | vs. WAS
Allen’s DFS prices continue to climb with every huge performance he puts up but he remains firmly in play nonetheless. I’m expecting the disappointing Jarrett Allen game to happen sooner rather than later but this doesn’t seem like the spot for it to happen. Over his last five games, Allen is averaging 1.59 FPPM and he has scored at least 56.25 DKFP/55.3 FDFP in four of those starts. He was limited to 29 minutes in the blowout win over the Wizards on Wednesday, but not before he supplied another big double-double with 17 points and 19 rebounds to go along with seven assists and two blocks. He gets to face the same Washington team again tonight. The Wizards allow the second most points in the paint per game and rank dead last in rebounding percentage.
C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.8k | @ BOS
I don’t love Kessler’s FanDuel price but he has some GPP appeal at $5,400 over on DraftKings. Minutes are the main concern with Kessler since he’s primarily playing off of the bench, but he’s averaged a sturdy 1.20 FPPM over his last five games. So, if he can push for close to 30 minutes tonight, he brings 6x-7x upside to the table. Perhaps he handles some additional run in the event of a blowout (Celtics: -14) and Boston has ranked 28th against opposing bench units L20Games. Kessler can pick up a handful of blocks on any given night and has 10 blocks across his last two games alone. Blocks can be tough to predict, but they do help guys rack up fantasy points in a hurry and Kessler is one of the better shot blockers in the NBA.
Other Centers to Consider
C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.6k | vs. NYK
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.4k, FD: N/A | vs. ORL (DK Slate Only)
C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | vs. MIN
C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. OKC
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. ATL
C Clint Capela, ATL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k | @ IND (DK Preferred)
C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | @ PHI (DK Preferred)
C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6k | @ CHI
PF/C Jalen Smith, IND | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5k | vs. ATL
C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | @ DAL (If he starts - DK Slate Only)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Clint Capela MORE than 22.5 Points + Rebounds
Kawhi Leonard MORE than 42.5 Fantasy Score
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!