Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 1/9 | Five Games On Tap Tonight!

NBA DFS Cheatsheet 1/9

Author

Ryan Humphries
January 09, 2024

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Another small slate hits the Tuesday docket with five games on tap! A handful of teams will be without at least one key starter today so finding value should not be a major issue. Should be an interesting slate so let’s get right into it! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Timberwolves: None

Magic: F. Wagner - OUT, W. Carter Jr. - OUT, G. Harris - OUT, J. Isaac - OUT, J. Ingles - OUT, A. Schofield - OUT

Kings: None

Pistons: C. Cunningham - OUT, I. Stewart - OUT

Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Doubtful, J. Walker - Questionable, M. Brown - OUT, M. Thybulle - Questionable

Knicks: None

Grizzlies: J. Morant - OUT (done for the season, will no longer appear on these injury rundowns), J. Jackson Jr. - Questionable, S. Aldama - Doubtful, D. Rose - OUT

Mavericks: L. Doncic - Questionable, D. Exum - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, G. Williams - Probable

Raptors: J. Poeltl - OUT, O. Porter Jr. - Doubtful

Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, R. Hachimura - Doubtful

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | @ ORL

This small slate is loaded with quality guard options and we’ll begin with T-Wolves’ star guard Anthony Edwards. Edwards perpetually goes under-owned despite routinely bringing a high floor/ceiling combo to DFS lineups. He has put up at least 43.75 DKFP/41.4 FDFP in 11 of his last 12 games and he has multiple 60+ FP outings in that span. The Magic (4th in DEFRTG) are not a team I generally target but they’ll be without multiple rotational players and shooting guard is one position they have not defended well -- Orlando has ranked 29th versus starting SGs L20Games. I believe we’ll see a couple of blowouts on this small slate but this game owns a fairly close 5.5-point spread. It is the match-up with the lowest total on the day but when it comes to an extremely high-usage player like Edwards (36.5% USG% L5Games), that factor becomes less of a concern.

PG/SG Marcus Smart, MEM | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | @ DAL

Marcus Smart is a notoriously streaky DFS play but he’ll have to step up now that Ja Morant is out for the season while multiple other rotational players are either out, doubtful, or questionable to play tonight. Smart has been hot over his last two games where he has played at least 38 minutes, scored 25+ points, and racked up 43.5 DKFP/38.9 FDFP (@ LAL) and 50.0 DKFP/48.2 FDFP (@ PHX). It’s perhaps not an ideal match-up but Smart did put up 48.25 DKFP/46.0 FDFP against the Mavs earlier this season, falling one assist shy of a double-double. I find it difficult to ever play Smart in a cash lineup, but he’s well within play for GPPs today.

 

SG/SF Alec Burks, DET | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6k | vs. SAC

Killian Hayes (DK: $4.5k, FD: $6k) is the favorite to get the start for the injured Cade Cunningham, but Alec Burks will be an appealing option off of the bench. He’s the more productive guard on a per-minute basis and has averaged 1.15 FPPM over his last five games. If he can push for upper-20s minutes, he’ll be a strong bet to return some nice value tonight. This game also has some blowout potential (DET +11) so Burks could handle some added run late in the game.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12.2k | vs. MEM (currently questionable)

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9k | vs. POR

PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k | vs. MEM (Significant boost if Doncic is out)

SG/SF Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.5k | @ DAL

PG/SG Immanuel Quickley, TOR | DK: $7k, FD: $7.3k | @ LAL

PG/SG Jaden Ivey, DET | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.4k | vs. SAC

SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo, NYK | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. POR

PG Killian Hayes, DET | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6k | vs. SAC (DK Preferred)

SG Luke Kennard, MEM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.3k | @ DAL

PG/SG Marcus Sasser, DET | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. SAC (DK Preferred)

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIN

Banchero’s DFS salaries have seen a steep increase but they’re fully warranted given the way he’s been playing lately on a shorthanded Magic team. Across his last five games, he’s averaging 1.47 FPPM, 59.4 DKFP/55.7 FDFP per game, and 40.5 Min/gm. The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the NBA, so I am worried about a regression game. But, for the time being, Banchero is the clear top offensive option for the Magic while Franz Wagner and a handful of rotational players are sidelined.

SF Bojan Bogdanovic, DET | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. SAC

I’m not overly thrilled to roster many Pistons, but if they’re able to keep this game close tonight, it’ll likely be thanks to a big performance from Bogdanovic. In 130 minutes with Cade Cunningham off the floor this season, Bogdanovic has taken on a +3% usage boost and, more notably, a +13.8 fantasy point per 48-minute increase. He is one of those rare players who has more success in down-pace games (+21% more FPPG) and the Kings are mid-pack at defending opposing small forwards.

 

PF/C Chris Boucher, TOR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.8k | @ LAL

Starting center Jakob Poeltl will miss his first game of the season tonight, which should lead to more secured minutes for Boucher at the five. I don’t believe he’ll get the starting nod, but he’ll have a chance to play mid-20s minutes. Boucher is averaging 1.07 FPPM over his last six games and he has exceeded 30 fantasy points in back-to-back games heading into tonight. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, Boucher should be a good bet for value tonight.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Anthony Edwards, LAL | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.3k | vs. TOR

PF/C Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.1k | vs. POR

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.3k | @ DAL (currently questionable)

PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | @ ORL

SF Caleb Houstan, ORL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MIN (If he starts again)

SF Vince Williams Jr., MEM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.2k | @ DAL

SF/PF Isaiah Livers, DET | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4k | vs. SAC

SF/PF Ziaire Williams, MEM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k | @ DAL

PF David Roddy, MEM | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | @ DAL (Only if J. Jackson Jr. is out)

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10k, FD: $10.1k | @ DET

There are some blowout concerns here but if things stay relatively close, this could be a smash spot for Sabonis. He has put up 1.62 FPPM over his previous five starts and he’ll draw a stellar match-up against the Pistons, who have ranked dead last versus centers L20Games. Sabonis has put up three triple-doubles within those last five starts so he can get things done in a variety of ways. The only areas where Sabonis doesn’t excel are in the steals and blocks department. However, he’ll have a chance to pick up a few of those premium stats since the Pistons allow the most steals per game (8.9) and the sixth most blocks per game (6.5).

 

C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.8k | vs. POR

The $7,800 tag on FanDuel is not as attractive as his $6,400 price point on DraftKings, but Hartenstein has hit a nice groove as the Knicks starting center in the wake of Mitchell Robinson’s season-ending injury. He’s been most effective across his last four games where he has played at least 35 minutes in each game -- the Knicks have won each of those games so Hartenstein should continue to receive plenty of action tonight. Hartenstein heads into this match-up with three consecutive games of at least 39.5 DKFP/42.7 FDFP and he draws a strong match-up against a Trailblazers team that allows the third-most points in the paint per game and they’re 23rd in rebounding%.

Other Centers to Consider

C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. SAC

C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.7k | @ NYK

PF/C Moritz Wagner, ORL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIN

PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $5k, FD: $5.7k | @ ORL

C Dwight Powell, DAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5k | vs. MEM

C Jontay Porter, TOR | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.7k | @ LAL

PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Immanuel Quickley MORE than 31.0 Fantasy Score

Paolo Banchero MORE than 35.5 Points + Rebounds

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!