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Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 2/1 | Plenty of Value on Tonight's Four-Game Slate
Top DFS Plays & Props for Thursday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A little four-game slate will kick off a new month of NBA action! A slew of injury impacts are packed into this small slate so keep an eye out for all of the news as it releases and adjust accordingly! We’ll keep things short and sweet for today’s newsletter so let’s get into it. New month, new money! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Lakers: L. James - OUT, A. Davis - OUT, C. Reddish - OUT
Celtics: L. Kornet - Questionable
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, B. Mathurin - Questionable, TJ McConnell - Questionable, J. Smith - Questionable
Knicks: J. Randle - OUT, OG Anunoby - Questionable, Q. Grimes - Questionable
Cavaliers: E. Mobley - OUT
Grizzlies: L. Kennard - Doubtful, S. Aldama - Questionable, J. Konchar - Questionable, D. Rose - Doubtful, Z. Williams - OUT, D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT, J. LaRavia - OUT
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, T. Maxey - Questionable, D. Melton - OUT, N. Batum - Questionable, M. Morris Sr. - Doubtful
Jazz: None
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo, NYK | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. IND
In the last two games in which the Knicks have been without Julius Randle (shoulder/out), it would appear as if Donte DiVincenzo has seen the most significant usage increase. He has played huge minutes (42 minutes @ CHA, 39 minutes vs. UTA) while averaging an excellent 1.31 FPPM. He has hoisted 22 shots in both games while scoring 46.5 DKFP/43.7 FDFP and 59.75 DKFP/60 FDFP. DiVincenzo’s DFS salaries have seen a steep increase and I would not expect him to push for 60 FP again today, but if he maintains this current role, there is still plenty of meat left on the bone for him to return value at these salaries. This is clearly a great match-up against the uptempo Pacers and the last time the Knicks played them on Dec. 30th, DiVincenzo came away with a season-high 61.5 DKFP/62.2 FDFP… and that was with all of the usual Knicks starters healthy and active.
PG/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | @ BOS
The Lakers are down both of their superstars tonight so it will be up to the rest of the gang to pick up the slack. Winning in Boston, where the Celtics own a 22-2 record this season, is a tall task for any team but things are going to be much more difficult for the Lakers, who are now huge +14.5 underdogs. But if there’s a chance for L.A. to make this a game, guys like Austin Reaves are going to have to have a big performance. In just under 100 minutes with both LeBron and Anthony Davis off the floor this season, Reaves has seen a team-leading +10.4 percentage point increase in his usage rate while averaging +12.9 fantasy points per 32 minutes.
PG Scotty Pippen Jr., MEM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.7k | vs. CLE
The Grizzlies’ injury report will need to be monitored, but with Luke Kennard listed as doubtful, we should expect Scotty Pippen Jr. to pick up another start. It appears as if he has supplanted Jacob Gilyard as the interim starting point guard. Pippen’s 32 minutes as a starter in Monday’s game were twice as many minutes as Gilyard, who played off of the bench. He scored a respectable 29.5 DKFP/30.9 FDFP in that game and, in four games played this season, he’s averaging just over an FPPM. As long as he’s starting again, he’s going to look like a strong value play at $4,700 on both sites.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. IND
PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.7k | @ UTA (Currently questionable)
PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | @ BOS
PG/SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. PHI
PG/SG Jrue Holiday, BOS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7k | vs. LAL (DK Preferred)
PG Patrick Beverley, PHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.5k | @ UTA (Only if Maxey is out/Beverley starts)
PG Keyonte George, UTA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.1k | vs. PHI (DK Preferred)
PG Payton Pritchard, BOS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. LAL (Extra potential minutes in a blowout)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. LAL
For a four-game slate, there is a significant amount of viable value plays on the board but not many appealing superstar players to spend up on. Of course, we will have some very real blowout concerns surrounding this game, but rolling with Tatum in hopes of a ceiling game, or at least 50+ FP, makes plenty of sense today. And, even if this does turn into a blowout, Tatum would likely be to blame, among others. Tatum is up to a 1.51 FPPM average over his last five games and he’s scored at least 56.25 DKFP/55.9 FDFP in three games during that stretch. The entire Celtics starting five is healthy, which makes it more difficult for Tatum to handle massive usage, but this is also a primetime televised game and Boston doesn’t play again until Sunday. We’ll insert a little narrative in here of Tatum looking to show out in front of a national audience en route to a dominating Celtics win.
SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. IND
Hart has started in the last two games that Julius Randle (shoulder/out) and OG Anunoby (elbow/questionable) have missed, and he has played a combined 82 minutes and has averaged right at an FPPM. Even if Anunoby is back tonight, Hart should retain his starting role. He’s not a high-usage player but he contributes very well in the peripheral stat categories and is coming off of a nice and tidy 10/10/10 triple-double in Tuesday’s game against the Jazz. This game owns a solid 235.5 over/under along with the closest spread of the night (NYK: -3). So, if Hart is going to continue playing around 40 minutes as a starter, he’s a great bet to meet or exceed salary-based expectations.
PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, LAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.3k | @ BOS
There are going to be multiple cheap Lakers frontcourt players that will fall into play today, so it’s really a “pick your poison” scenario when it comes to guys like Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes, and Taurean Prince. My current guess is that Vanderbilt will continue to play off of the bench, but he has logged at least 25 minutes in four of the last five games -- the only game he didn’t hit that mark was when he was ejected in the first half of Monday’s game against the Rockets. Vanderbilt is only averaging 0.75 FPPM on the season but the added minutes lately have helped him find a groove, and he is posting 1.06 FPPM across these last five games. I would almost prefer it if he continues to play off of the bench since that could somewhat protect him from the potential blowout. If he can play into 30+ minutes with LeBron and AD unavailable tonight, then Vanderbilt will have some very realistic 6x (or better) upside.
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | vs. CLE
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. LAL
SF/PF Tobias Harris, PHI | DK: $7k, FD: $7.7k | @ UTA (Boost if T. Maxey is out)
SF Vince Williams Jr., MEM | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CLE
PF/C John Collins, UTA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.4k | vs. PHI
SF Aaron Nesmith, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.3k | @ NYK
SF/PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.2k | vs. CLE
SF/PF Rui Hachimura, LAL | DK: $4k, FD: $4.9k | @ BOS
SF Taurean Prince, LAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5k | @ BOS (DK Preferred)
PF/C Dean Wade, CLE | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.3k | @ MEM
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | @ MEM
With Evan Mobley (injury management/out) back on the sidelines, Jarrett Allen will regain the high floor and upside that he had during Mobley’s 22-game absence. The Cavs are on the second leg of a back-to-back but Allen didn’t log massive minutes last night, so he should have plenty of gas in the tank tonight. We should also like Allen's match-up against a depleted Grizzlies team that has ranked 29th versus starting centers L20Games.
C Christian Wood, LAL | DK: $4k, FD: $5.1k | @ BOS
The Lakers will likely start Jaxson Hayes (DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.5k) at center tonight, however, he and Christian Wood should split the center minutes fairly evenly tonight. Wood has been better from an FPPM perspective and could end up with the most center minutes for the Lakers when it’s all said and done. Wood has averaged 1.08 FPPM L20Games and he’ll bring ample 6x (or better) upside if he’s able to play around 24-28 minutes this evening. It’s not an easy match-up, but the Celtics do struggle more defensively against reserve units as opposed to starters.
Other Centers to Consider
C Isaiah Hartenstein, NYK | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. IND
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k | @ NYK (DK Preferred)
C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | @ UTA
C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $6k | vs. PHI (DK Preferred)
C Jaxson Hayes, LAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.5k | @ BOS
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Kristaps Porzingis MORE than 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (1st Half)
Donte DiVincenzo MORE than 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!