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Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 2/12 | Core Plays for Monday's Nine-Game Slate!
Top DFS Plays & Props for Monday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
I hope everyone enjoyed their Super Bowl Sunday and isn’t too banged up heading into the work week! We’ll have a nine-game NBA slate on the board today so there is plenty of action to delve into. I’ll be switching up the newsletter format today to include favorable core plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If folks like this format, I may continue to roll with it in the future. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Pacers: T. Haliburton - Questionable, J. Smith - OUT, J. Johnson - Questionable
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, C. Martin - Probable
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, T. Harris - OUT, D. Melton - OUT, N. Batum - OUT, M. Bamba - Questionable
Cavaliers: D. Wade - Questionable
Spurs: M. Morris Sr. - OUT
Raptors: None
Bulls: C. White - Probable, A. Caruso - Questionable, P. Williams - OUT, T. Craig - Probable
Hawks: C. Capela - OUT, B. Fernando - Probable, P. Mills - Doubtful
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, D. Daniels - OUT
Grizzlies: D. Rose - Doubtful, Z. Williams - Doubtful, D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT, J. LaRavia - OUT
Nuggets: M. Porter Jr. - Probable, K. Caldwell-Pope - Questionable
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, D. Lillard - Probable, K. Middleton - OUT
Knicks: J. Randle - OUT, OG Anunoby - OUT, I. Hartenstein - Questionable, J. Sims - Probable
Rockets: A. Sengun - Questionable, F. VanVleet - OUT, T. Eason - OUT, C. Whitmore - OUT
Wizards: None
Mavericks: L. Doncic - Probable, K. Irving - Probable, D. Exum - OUT, D. Lively II - OUT, M. Kleber - Probable
Warriors: C. Paul - OUT
Jazz: None
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
DraftKings Core Plays 🏀
PG Tre Mann, CHA | $4,600 | vs. IND
PG/SG Vasilije Micic, CHA | $3,900 | vs. IND
The Hornets have a new-look rotation following some moves at the trade deadline. Tre Mann and Vasilije Micic took turns running point for Charlotte in their last game on Saturday -- Mann earning the start and Micic playing off of the bench. Both guys accounted for nine assists while Micic shot an efficient 8-of-13 from the field. Given their value pricing, we can look to roll out both players under the assumption that they’ll maintain similar roles heading into tonight’s match-up. Mann is a bit more trustworthy given his (likely) starting status.
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | $12,000 | vs. WAS
With plenty of value available on this slate, it won’t be overly difficult to slide Doncic into lineups. He is averaging 66.7 DKFP/gm at home this season and, despite a lackluster performance (by his standards) against Washington earlier this season, this will continue to be a stellar match-up. The Wizards continue to lead the NBA in pace while playing poor defense (27th in DEFRTG) which leads to this game boasting a slate-high 247.5 O/U.
C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | $7,900 | @ ATL
Vuc has been on a roll as of late, averaging 49.25 DKFP and 1.28 FPPM over his last five games. His usage rate has exceeded 25% in that span and he’s putting up 23.2 PPG, 11.4 RPG, 3.4 APG, and 2.6 STL+BLK/gm L5Games. The Hawks offer an appealing match-up thanks to their fast tempo (3rd in pace) and poor defense (28th in DEFRTG). They’re also allowing the third most points in the paint per game and are a below-average rebounding team. Vucevic makes for an all-around appealing play at this sub-$8k DraftKings price point.
PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | $7,400 | vs. CHI
Johnson has been playing above this $7,400 price tag for weeks now and he has scored under 35.25 DKFP just once in his last ten games. Tonight’s match-up with the Bulls should provide a competitive and high-scoring atmosphere (ATL: -3.5, 239 over/under) and Chicago has ranked 28th versus starting power forwards L20Games.
PG Keyonte George, UTA | $4,200 | vs. GSW
We’ll get one more value play in with Keyonte George priced at a modest $4,200. The Jazz rotation is deep and big minutes are often tough to come by, but George is playing a good chunk of minutes off of the bench (25.1 Min/gm L5Games) and he’s averaging just over an FPPM in that span. As long as he continues to play 20+ minutes, I don’t see him burning you at this price point, and he’s posted multiple 30+ DKFP games within the last couple of weeks.
FanDuel Core Plays 🏀
SF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | $8,100 | @ ATL
DDR maintains a fair price point on FanDuel and he’ll continue to shoulder some additional offensive usage with Zach LaVine out of the picture for the remainder of the season. He’s gone below 37.8 FDFP just once in his last eight games as discussed above, we’ll really like the game environment and pace-up match-up for the Bulls.
SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | $7,400 | @ UTA
Kuminga has cooled off a touch over the last two or three games but he will still provide a nice floor with 45+ FDFP upside in the tank. The Jazz have ranked 29th versus starting PFs L20Games and this match-up boasts the closest spread of the night with the Warriors being slight one-point road favorites.
PG Tre Mann, CHA | $6,000 | vs. IND
(Discussed above)
SG/SF Max Strus | $5,400 | vs. PHI
Bit of a gamble here with the Cavs getting back to full strength recently, but $5,400 is an appealing price point for a starter who has shown the ability to far exceed this salary. If Strus gets hot from the field, he can quickly return upwards of 6x-7x value and he erupted for 42.0 FDFP when the Cavs last clashed with the 76ers.
PG/SG Immanuel Quickley, TOR | $7,000 | vs. SAS
Quickley has been a bit up-and-down lately but he sets up nicely at a flat $7,000 with the Spurs’ 25th-ranked defense in town. The Raptors are tied for 3rd on the slate with a 121.3 implied team total and if tonight is one of those nights where Quickley plays upper-30s minutes, I believe he’ll be pushing for 40+ FDFP by the end of the evening.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Stephen Curry, GSW | @ UTA
PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | vs. WAS
PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | @ CHA
PG Jamal Murray, DEN | @ MIL
PG/SG Coby White, CHI | @ ATL
PG/SG Devin Vassell, SAS | @ TOR
PG Tyus Jones, WAS | @ DAL
PG Tre Jones, SAS | @ TOR
PG/SG Alex Caruso, CHI | @ ATL (Currently questionable)
PG TJ McConnell, IND | @ CHA
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | @ TOR
SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | vs. SAS
PF/C Kyle Kuzma, WAS | @ DAL
SF/SG RJ Barrett, TOR | vs. SAS
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | vs. PHI
PF/C John Collins, UTA | vs. GSW
SF/PF Saddiq Bey, ATL | vs. CHI
PF/C Kelly Olynyk, TOR | vs. SAS
Other Centers to Consider
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | @ MIL
C Jakob Poeltl, TOR | vs. SAS
C Myles Turner, IND | @ CHA
C Walker Kessler, UTA | vs. GSW (Preferred if starting)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
No PrizePicks plays from me today but Tyler and Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!