Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 2/26 | Digging into Monday's Small Four-Game Slate!

Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Monday's NBA Action!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Pick’Em Prop Offers 2/26/24 💸

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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

We’ll get a new week of NBA action rolling with a modest four-game Monday slate! I won’t pretend that this small slate consists of the most enticing match-ups, but we’ll look to make the most of it nonetheless. Let’s not waste much time with the intro and get right into a quick newsletter. Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

  • Raptors: None

  • Pacers: A. Nesmith - OUT, J. Smith - Questionable

  • Pistons: I. Stewart - OUT, M. Sasser - OUT

  • Knicks: J. Randle - OUT, OG Anunoby - OUT

  • Nets: B. Simmons - Questionable

  • Grizzlies: S. Pippen Jr. - OUT, J. Konchar - OUT, D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT

  • Heat: J. Butler - OUT, T. Herro - OUT, T. Rozier - OUT, J. Richardson - OUT, N. Jovic - OUT, T. Bryant - OUT

  • Kings: None

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

🆕LineStar NBA Feature Update🆕

As most LineStar Premium subscribers are aware, your subscription includes access to both the mobile app and the desktop LineStar site. Desktop users may notice a new “Team DEF” tool/tab feature that has been added for NBA over the All-Star Break! This tool gives a detailed visual breakdown of team defense and DvP (defense versus position) information with expanded sorting options. This is just another useful tool to help you take a more informed NBA DFS approach! And, if you’re someone who exclusively uses the app, be on the lookout for the “Team DEF” tool coming to LineStar mobile in the near future!

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. TOR

There is no question that this Pacers/Raptors match-up possesses the highest-scoring upside on the slate. The 245 over/under here is more than 20 points higher than the next-closest game total this evening. After dealing with some injury woes and minute restrictions in recent weeks, Haliburton is back to playing his usual minutes -- he has averaged 32.1 minutes/gm this season and is back up to 32.8 minutes/gm L5Games. He has been his best at home, where he’s averaging +11.6% more FPPG, and he’s facing a Raptors team that has ranked 25th versus points guards L10Games. It’s been a hot minute since we’ve seen a ceiling game out of Haliburton but tonight will be a good spot for one and, at the very least, I believe we’ll get a 50+ FP performance out of him.

 

PG Immanuel Quickley, TOR | DK: $7.2k, FD: $6.9k | @ IND

Quickley has been sharp in the two games since the All-Star Break, scoring 24 points in each contest while averaging 1.23 FPPM. The Raptors have not played since Friday, and Quickley is scoring +22% more FPPG when well-rested. To reiterate, the 245 over/under in this game is, by far, the highest total on the slate and, much like his counterpart, Tyrese Haliburton, Quickley draws a promising match-up. The Pacers are allowing 1.28 FPPM to point guards L10Games and the fact that Indiana ranks 2nd in pace and 26th in DEFRTG usually bodes well for the opposition.

PG Delon Wright, MIA | DK: $3k, FD: $3.7k | @ SAC

The Miami Heat will be a major source of value tonight. Between injuries and suspensions, they’ll head into tonight’s game shorthanded and won’t have the services of Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Josh Richardson, and a couple of other rotational players. Their backcourt is where they’re taking the biggest hit and could very well lead to a spot start for Delon Wright. He has yet to see any action since joining Miami 10 days ago, and with this being the latest game of the night, we likely won’t know if he’s starting for sure until about 30 minutes before tip. But, either way, Wright should handle meaningful minutes and he’s dirt cheap on both sites.

 

Other Guards to Consider

PG Jalen Brunson, NYK | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.6k | vs. DET

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.8k | vs. MIA (DK Preferred)

SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo, NYK | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | vs. DET

SG/SF Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIA (DK Preferred)

SG/SF Duncan Robinson, MIA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.6k | @ SAC

SG Gary Trent Jr., TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.9k | @ IND

SG/SF Ziaire Williams, MEM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. BKN

SG/SF Evan Fournier, DET | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.4k | @ NYK

SG Quentin Grimes, DET | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.1k | @ NYK

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.8k | vs. BKN

Jackson will be a better bargain on DraftKings but I still believe that a big 60+ FP game is somewhere on the horizon. He leads the entire slate with a 34.8% USG% over his last 20 games and, while this game owns a slate-low 214.5 over/under, the two-point spread is the closest of the slate. In a winnable game at home, Jackson should continue to shoulder much of the weight offensively while providing solid peripherals, including excellent block/steal upside.

 

PF/C Precious Achiuwa, NYK | DK: $7k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET

Achiuwa had a down game against Boston on Saturday, but he’ll go from facing the 3rd-ranked team in DEFRTG (Boston) to the 30th-ranked team in DEFRTG tonight. With the continued absence of Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, Achiuwa has been pushing for, or exceeding, 40 minutes a night. The Pistons have ranked dead last versus power forwards L20Games and have allowed 41.6 DKFP/40.9 FDFP per game to PF starters in that span. While Achiuwa’s usage won’t be high, he’s a likely double-double candidate and he should be able to contribute multiple blocks/steals -- the Pistons allow the 6th most blocker per game (6.5) and THE most steals per game (8.8).

SF/SG Bennedict Mathurin, IND | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. TOR

If Mathurin’s two post-All-Star Break games are any indication, he’ll be poised for a big second half. He has averaged 1.10 FPPM and 34.0 minutes/gm in the last two games. With the Pacers dealing away Buddy Hield and Bruce Brown ahead of the deadline, and Aaron Nesmith (ankle/out) poised to miss a third consecutive game, plenty of minutes and usage should be available for Mathurin out on the wings tonight. The Raptors have ranked 30th versus starting SFs L20Games and, while Mathurin has been a volatile DFS play throughout the season, he’ll be an appealing option at a sub-$6k price point on both sites tonight.

 

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.3k | @ IND

SF/PF Pascal Siakam, IND | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. TOR

SF/SG RJ Barrett, TOR | DK: $7k, FD: $7.3k | @ IND

SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DET

SF/PF Jaime Jaquez Jr., MIA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.9k | @ SAC

PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.2k | vs. BKN

SF/PF Simone Fontecchio, DET | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | @ NYK

PF/C Lamar Stevens. MEM | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. BKN

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.8k | vs. MIA

You have to go back a month, 12 games in total, to find a score below 49.0 DKFP for Sabonis, and he has scored below 50.1 FDFP just once during that span. He’s been a triple-double machine and is averaging 20.1 PPG/14.1 RPG/9.7 APG L20Games -- those averages rise to 23.0 PPG/13.6 RPG/11.2 APG over his last five games. The last time the Kings met with the Heat on Jan. 31st, Sabonis came away with yet another triple-double (19 points, 17 rebounds, 13 assists) and 68.25 DKFP/63.9 FDFP. On paper, it’s not a great match-up (MIA ranked 1st vs. starting centers L20Games) and the Kings are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but Sabonis can just contribute in a variety of ways and, pending an early blowout, he should bring the highest fantasy floor, regardless of position, to DFS lineups tonight.

C Kevin Love, MIA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.7k | @ SAC

Love, as a DFS option, is always a bit of a gamble but if you could guarantee that he’d play 25 minutes tonight, or even just 20 minutes, then he’d be a standout value play. Love has exceeded 17 minutes just once in his last 15 games, but in the one game he did (23 minutes vs. MIL on Feb. 13th) he dropped 39.5 DKFP/38.1 FDFP. Love has averaged an excellent 1.25 FPPM on the season and, with the Heat being so shorthanded tonight, there’s at least a more likely chance that he’ll handle a few additional minutes off of the Miami bench. Love is a risky play, but makes for a worthy GPP value play this evening.

 

Other Centers to Consider

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9k | @ SAC

C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.1k | vs. TOR

C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.2k | @ MEM

C Jakob Poeltl, TOR | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.8k | @ IND

C Kelly Olynyk, TOR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6k | @ IND (DK Preferred)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays from me today but Shannon & Tyler have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!