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Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 2/27 | Analyzing a Busy Nine-Game Slate!
Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Tuesday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Pick’Em Prop Offers 2/27/24 💸
Our editors found the top Pick’Em DFS deals so you don’t have to!
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A busy Tuesday docket rolls around with nine games on the main slate board! Two additional games tip off at 10 o’clock ET, but both DraftKings and FanDuel have elected to exclude them from their respective main slates. As a result, the latest main slate tip-off will begin at 8 o’clock ET, so we’ll be packing a lot of action within a short time frame. The injury report isn’t overly hectic but there are still a handful of key names that we’ll have to keep track of. Should be a fun one so let’s get into it! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Warriors: A. Wiggins - OUT
Wizards: D. Avdija - OUT, C. Kispert - Questionable, B. Coulibaly - OUT, L. Shamet - Questionable
Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, B. Simmons - OUT
Magic: P. Banchero - OUT, J. Isaac - OUT
Mavericks: D. Exum - OUT
Cavaliers: None
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, KJ Martin - Questionable
Celtics: None
Jazz: None
Hawks: T. Young - OUT, O. Okongwu - OUT
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, CJ McCollum - Questionable, J. Alvarado - OUT, D. Daniels - OUT
Knicks: J. Brunson - Questionable, J. Randle - OUT, OG Anunoby - OUT, I. Hartenstein - Questionable
Pistons: C. Cunningham - Probable, J. Ivey - Probable, M. Sasser - OUT
Bulls: T. Craig - OUT
Spurs: None
Timberwolves: K. Towns - OUT, R. Gobert -Questionable
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, S. Curry - Probable
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Probable, K. Middleton - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
🆕LineStar NBA Feature Update🆕
As most LineStar Premium subscribers are aware, your subscription includes access to both the mobile app and the desktop LineStar site. Desktop users may notice a new “Team DEF” tool/tab feature that has been added for NBA over the All-Star Break! This tool gives a detailed visual breakdown of team defense and DvP (defense versus position) information with expanded sorting options. This is just another useful tool to help you take a more informed NBA DFS approach! And, if you’re someone who exclusively uses the app, be on the lookout for the “Team DEF” tool coming to LineStar mobile in the near future!
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. SAS
The T-Wolves will be without the services of Karl-Anthony Towns (27.5% USG%) due to a personal matter tonight. In 458 minutes with Towns off the floor this season, Anthony Edwards has seen a team-leading +4.6 percentage point increase to his usage rate. If Rudy Gobert (ankle/questionable) is ruled out, Edwards could handle an even heftier workload (+7.4 percentage points increase to his usage rate with both Towns & Gobert off the floor). Edwards has also been particularly hot recently, averaging 1.48 FPPM, 31.0 PPG, and a hefty 34.5% USG% over his last five games… so he could realistically flirt with a 40% USG% this evening. This is also going to be an excellent match-up versus a Spurs team that has allowed the most FPPM to shooting guards L10Games.
PG Dejounte Murray, ATL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. UTA
The Hawks are going to have to manage without star PG Trae Young for roughly a month after he underwent surgery today to address a torn ligament in his left hand. DraftKings and FanDuel had time to adjust some of the Hawks salaries given the Trae Young news, and Dejounte Murray has been bumped up to $8,900 on both sites. However, there’s a strong argument to be made that this price tag still represents a solid value for Murray. With Young off the floor this season, Murray has posted a team-leading 28.2% USG% and averages +7.65 fantasy points per 32 minutes. In six games played with Young completely ruled out, Murray has posted an average of 51.8 DKFP/49.4 FDFP. To top it all off, this match-up owns a strong 238.5 over/under and the closest spread of the slate (ATL: -2) -- and nothing is frightening about a Jazz defense that ranks 25th in DEFRTG on the season.
PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. DET
Dosunmu has displayed an excellent ceiling at these current salaries and has put up at least 38.0 DKFP/36.6 FDFP in three of his last four games. He played at least 39 minutes in those three big games and he should continue to see massive minutes while the Bulls operate without Zach LaVine (out for season), Patrick Williams (out for season), and Torrey Craig (knee/out). The Pistons recently took over the 30th spot in defensive rating so the match-up won’t be of any concern.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12k, FD: $12.4k | @ CLE
PG Stephen Curry, GSW | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.2k | @ WAS
PG/SG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.6k | vs. DET
PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. DAL
SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.7k | @ ATL
PG/SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.6k | vs. UTA
PG Keyonte George, UTA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.9k | @ ATL
PG/SG Dennis Schroder, BKN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.4k | @ ORL
SG Quentin Grimes, DET | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.2k | @ CHI
SG/SF Lonnie Walker IV, BKN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.3k | @ ORL
SG/SG Gary Payton II, GSW | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | @ WAS (DK Punt Play)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. DET
DDR rarely sticks out as a super exciting play but he continues to represent a strong floor play and maintains sub-$8k price points on both sites. His best games tend to come at home and he’ll face a Pistons team that ranks 29th versus starting PFs L20Games, allowing 40.7 DKFP/39.9 FDFP per game to starting power forwards in that span.
PF/C Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. GSW
This game boasts a slate-leading 243.5 over/under and, while the Wizards (+10.5) are double-digit underdogs yet again, if they’re able to stay in this game, it’ll likely be due to a big game out of Kyle Kuzma. The Wizards are dealing with multiple injuries this evening and two guys that have been confirmed out for tonight include Deni Avdija and Bilal Coulibaly. In 167.3 minutes with those two players off the court this season, Kuzma has averaged a team-leading +11.6 fantasy points per 32 minutes and has seen a +3.8 percentage point increase to his usage rate. Kuzma can be a volatile option but he also brings legitimate 50+ FP upside to the table tonight.
PF/C John Collins, UTA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ ATL
For DFS purposes, the Jazz have one of the more frustrating rotations in the NBA, but the exodus of Kelly Olynyk at the trade deadline has opened up more stability in the Utah frontcourt. John Collins has been a rock-solid option out of this price range and is averaging 1.23 FPPM L20Games. In his last five games, he’s averaging a double-double (13.8 PPG/11.2 RPG) to go along with 2.0 STL+BLK/gm. As discussed earlier, we’re expecting for this game to be one of the most competitive match-ups on the night and defense will largely be an afterthought on both sides. If Collins comes close to or exceeds 30 minutes tonight, he’s highly unlikely to disappoint.
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.7k | vs. CHA
PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.7k | @ MIN (DK Preferred)
SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8k | @ ATL
SF/SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | @ NYK (Boost if Williamson and/or McCollum are out)
PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. UTA
PF/C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. DET
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. DAL
SF/PF Josh Hart, NYK | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.7k | vs. NOP
PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | @ WAS
SF/SG Klay Thompson, GSW | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.6k | @ WAS
SF/PF Herbert Jones, NOP | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6k | @ NYK
SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k | vs. UTA
SF/PF Kyle Anderson, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.7k | vs. SAS
PF Taylor Hendricks, UTA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.1k | @ ATL
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7k | vs. DAL
Center is a relatively weak position today but Jarrett Allen represents a steady, reliable option out of the $7k range. He’s secured at least 34.0 DKFP/33.0 FDFP in nine of his last 10 games. The Mavs rank 9th in pace this season and Allen has averaged +20% more FPPG in uptempo match-ups. Dallas has defended centers well lately (9th versus centers L10Games) but Allen exploded for 65.25 DKFP/62.6 FDFP against the Mavs when these teams last met on Dec. 27th, though, Cleveland was shorthanded in that game. Nonetheless, we can feel great about the floor Allen can provide at these salaries.
C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.7k | vs. BKN (Boost if Banchero is out)
WCJ is a very up-and-down player but he is coming off of a pair of quality double-double performances. Carter’s viability will rise further if Paolo Banchero (illness/questionable) is ruled out for a second consecutive game. In 143 minutes with Banchero off the floor this season, Carter has posted a team-leading +6.9 fantasy points per 32 minutes along with a moderate +2.5% usage rate boost. The Nets aren’t a great match-up for centers but they do head into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back, which bodes well for Carter’s potential upside tonight.
Update: Banchero has been ruled out.
Other Centers to Consider
C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.8k | vs. SAS (Currently questionable)
C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CHA
C Marvin Bagley III, WAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.8k | vs. GSW
C Nick Richards, CHA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.3k | @ MIL
C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.2k | @ ATL (DK Preferred)
C Bruno Fernando, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.6k | vs. UTA (DK Preferred)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
No PrizePicks plays from me today but Shannon & Tyler have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!