- LineStar® Daily Dribble
- Posts
- Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 2/28 | Dissecting Tonight's Sizzling Six-Game Midweek Slate
Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 2/28 | Dissecting Tonight's Sizzling Six-Game Midweek Slate
Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Wednesday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Pick’Em Prop Offers 2/28/24 💸
Our editors found the top Pick’Em DFS deals so you don’t have to!
Highly recommend you check out Chalkboard if you haven’t above. They are doing some really innovative things in the Pick’Em markets, lot more options than your standard fare. Chalkboard is currently number #10 on the iOS Top Sports charts! It’s how you know they’re doing big things.
Terms: Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. Using an affiliate offer will help support LineStar who may receive a commission fee from the referral. Other conditions may apply, please see link for full details.
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
A nice and tidy six-game slate arrives on Wednesday! This modest slate bolsters several good-to-great match-ups and only one game possesses a spread greater than seven points. For a smaller slate, there will be quite a few “questionable” players to monitor, primarily on the Pelicans’ and Timberwolves’ rosters. We’ll also have a little extra time to get our lineups in order as the slate won’t get underway until 7:30 ET. Let’s get it! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Mavericks: L. Doncic - Probable, D. Exum - Probable, D. Lively II - Probable, M. Kleber - Doubtful
Raptors: J. Poeltl - Questionable, C. Boucher - Questionable
Pelicans: Z. Williamson - Questionable, B. Ingram - Questionable, CJ McCollum - Questionable, T. Murphy III - Questionable, J. Alvarado - OUT
Pacers: A. Nesmith - Questionable, D. McDermott - OUT
Cavaliers: None
Bulls: A. Caruso - Questionable, T. Craig - OUT
Grizzlies: L. Kennard - OUT, S. Pippen Jr. - OUT, J. Konchar - Doubtful, D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT
Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, R. Gobert -Questionable, K. Anderson - OUT
Kings: D. Fox - Questionable
Nuggets: None
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, C. Wood - OUT, C. Reddish - Probable
Clippers: P. George - OUT, I Zubac - Questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
🆕LineStar NBA Feature Update🆕
As most LineStar Premium subscribers are aware, your subscription includes access to both the mobile app and the desktop LineStar site. Desktop users may notice a new “Team DEF” tool/tab feature that has been added for NBA over the All-Star Break! This tool gives a detailed visual breakdown of team defense and DvP (defense versus position) information with expanded sorting options. This is just another useful tool to help you take a more informed NBA DFS approach! And, if you’re someone who exclusively uses the app, be on the lookout for the “Team DEF” tool coming to LineStar mobile in the near future!
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12k, FD: $12.4k | @ TOR
There is already some quality value on this slate, to begin with, and once a few of those “questionable” designated players are ruled out, there will be plenty more. So the Luka spend-up approach is certainly viable tonight. He’s coming off of yet another massive game, with a 45/9/14 stat line against the Cavs last night, which produced 87.25 DKFP/84.8 FDFP. The Mavs lost in heartbreaking fashion in that game, with Max Strus draining a miraculous buzzer-beater from beyond half-court (seriously, go watch that highlight if you missed it). I’m not overly concerned that Doncic logged 41 minutes last night since -- he has put up multiple big performances on second legs of back-to-backs this season despite playing 40+ minutes the night before. This game also owns the highest total (241 O/U) and closest spread of the slate (DAL: -3), and Luka has averaged 77.8 DKFP/74.5 FDFP in close games this season. The Raptors have also ranked 28th in DEFRTG since Jan. 18th (when they traded Pascal Siakam) and have struggled against primary ball handlers in that span as well. Finally, if you want to add a little birthday narrative, Doncic turns 25 today!
PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.7k | @ LAC
Crosstown rivals meet in L.A. tonight and D’Angelo Russell heads into the fourth Clippers/Lakers match-up of the season in some nice form. He has produced at least 37.75 DKFP/36.6 FDFP in six of his last seven games and, for the most part, he has enjoyed this match-up. Russell has a pair of 27-point games against the Clippers this season and went for 51.25 DKFP/46.0 FDFP the last time these teams met -- LeBron was out for that game and is questionable to play tonight. This is also a sneaky-good match-up as the Clippers have allowed a slate-high 1.38 FPPM to PGs L5Games and they’ll be without their second-highest-rated defender tonight (Paul George out with a knee injury).
SG/SF Norman Powell, LAC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. LAL
Powell will be a popular option this evening but he brings plenty of 6x (or better) upside to the table and is just $4,800 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Powell got the spot start in place of the injured Paul George (knee/out) on Sunday and logged 37 minutes while putting up 21 points and 30.5 DKFP/28.4 FDFP. Nothing is spectacular about his 0.81 FPPM average this season but he has, by far, the most minutes played without Paul George on the floor and should be expected to log mid-30s minutes with the rest of the starters in what is likely to be a competitive game (LAC: -3.5) this evening.
Other Guards to Consider
PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.9k | @ CHI
SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k | vs. MEM (Currently questionable)
PG James Harden, LAC | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | vs. LAL
PG Jamal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. SAC
PG Immanuel Quickley, TOR | DK: $7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. DAL
SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, IND | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. NOP
SG/SF Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | @ DEN (Preferred if D. Fox is out)
PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CLE
PG/SG Terrance Mann, LAC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | vs. LAL
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DEN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.7k | vs. SAC
PG Jordan Goodwin, MEM | DK: $4k, FD: $4.4k | @ MIN (Preferred if starting)
SG Gradey Dick, TOR | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.5k | vs. DAL
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.2k | @ LAC (Currently questionable - DK Preferred)
We’ll have to make sure LeBron (ankle/questionable) is active tonight and, since this is the final game of the slate, be sure to have a backup plan in place in case he is ruled out. But, if James suits up, as he has done for most games where he’s been labeled “questionable” this season, then he’ll be tough to pass on at his $9,100 DraftKings salary. He’s gone for at least 50.75 DKFP in four of his last five games, averaging 1.47 FPPM in that span and, out of his 52 games played this season, I count only about 10 or 11 games in which he posted a true dud fantasy score result when compared to a $9,100 DK salary. He has averaged 57.0 DKFP in two games against the Clippers this season and, for the most part, the Clippers have gotten the better of James and the Lakers the last few seasons in terms of wins/losses. The Lakers haven’t played since Sunday but they are on the front end of a back-to-back. They’re hosting the 9-49 Wizards tomorrow night, so if the plan is for LeBron to play just one leg of the B2B, then it’d likely be tonight’s match-up since the Lakers could easily win without him tomorrow. Either way, it’s time for the Lakers to get some momentum going as they currently sit 10th in the Western Conference standings with 23 games left to play.
PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | @ IND (Currently questionable - Boost if Ingram and/or McCollum sit)
The Pelicans injury report will have a major impact on tonight’s slate. Their top three players, Williamson, Ingram, and McCollum, are all questionable tonight. If Williamson is active while one (or both) of Ingram and McCollum sit, it will only boost his DFS potential in this promising match-up. The Pacers are 2nd in pace, 26th in DEFRTG, and they’ve allowed THE most points in the paint per game. Over 75% of Zion Williamson’s shots have come within five feet of the basket and he heads into this game in strong form, averaging 1.41 FPPM.
PF/C Lamar Stevens, MEM | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.9k | @ MIN
If you need a sub-$5k forward play, Lamar Stevens sets up nicely this evening. Spanning his last five games, he’s posting a respectable 1.10 FPPM and averaging 25.3 DKFP/25.7 FDFP. It’s not a great match-up on paper (MIN: 1st in DEFRTG) but the Timberwolves are on the second leg of a B2B and could be without Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards (both questionable).
Other Forwards to Consider
SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.5k | vs. DAL
SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.2k | vs. LAL
PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MEM (Boost if Edwards and/or Gobert sit)
SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CLE
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | @ CHI
SF/SG RJ Barrett, TOR | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. DAL
SF/PF Herbert Jones, NOP | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6k | @ IND (Potential boost pending NOP injury report)
SF/SG Trey Murphy III, NOP | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.8k | @ IND (Currently questionable - Potential boost pending NOP injury report)
PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. MEM
SF/SG Max Strus, CLE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.5k | @ CHI
PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6k | @ MIN (DK Preferred)
PF/C Jalen Smith, IND | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NOP
SF/SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. MEM (Preferred if starting)
SF Jake LaRavia, MEM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.8k | @ MIN
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.7k, FD: $12.5k | vs. SAC
Jokic is on another historical stretch and recently set an NBA record with at least 14 rebounds and at least 14 assists in three consecutive games. He’s up to 1.92 FPPM over his last five games and averaged +22% more FPPG in up-pace games. The Nuggets have yet to beat the Kings this season so there might be a little added motivation to get this win tonight.
C Andre Drummond, CHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.9k | vs. CLE
When the Bulls last faced the Cavs two weeks ago, they deployed a unique starting lineup with Andre Drummond playing center and Nikola Vucevic sliding over the power forward position in order to match Cleveland’s frontcourt size against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Drummond is projected to start again tonight and he’s averaging 1.45 FPPM as a starter this season. If he’s going to play around 28 minutes again tonight, as he did against Cleveland on Feb. 14th, then he’s a great bet to exceed salary-based expectations at his sub-$6k salaries on both sites.
Other Centers to Consider
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.6k | @ DEN
C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.2k | @ LAC (DK Preferred)
PF/C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. CLE
C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k | vs. MEM (Currently questionable)
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NOP
C Kelly Olynyk, TOR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. DAL (Boost if J. Poeltl is out)
*If Ivica Zubac is out, either Mason Plumlee (DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k) or Daniel Theis (DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.5k) would be an interesting punt play (preferably, whoever starts).
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Evan Mobley MORE than 31.5 Fantasy Score
D’Angelo Russell MORE than 23.5 Points + Assists
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!