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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 3/1 | Marching Into Friday's Seven-Game Slate
Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 3/1 | Marching Into Friday's Seven-Game Slate
Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Friday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Pick’Em Prop Offers 3/1/24 💸
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
We’ll set sail into the weekend with a seven-game Friday NBA main slate! If you’re a DraftKings player, keep in mind that today’s slate will not possess the late swap feature. From what I can tell, I don’t believe this is a permanent change, but it may be something you see more of in the future as DraftKings looks to appeal to a more casual player base. It’s business as usual on FanDuel, but some big names carry “questionable” designations on this slate. Unless clarification on those injuries is made ahead of the 7:00 ET slate lock, I imagine we’ll see very low ownership (on DraftKings) for guys like De’Aaron Fox and Anthony Edwards (both questionable and playing in the later main slate games). Let’s see what we can cook up today! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Hornets: L. Ball - OUT, M. Williams - OUT, G. Williams - Probable
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, K. Oubre Jr. - Questionable, D. Melton - OUT, KJ Martin - Questionable
Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - Questionable, C. LeVert - Questionable
Pistons: M. Sasser - OUT
Mavericks: L. Doncic - Questionable
Celtics: None
Warriors: B. Podziemski - OUT, A. Wiggins - OUT, G. Santos - Doubtful
Raptors: C. Boucher - Questionable
Trailblazers: D. Ayton - Doubtful, M. Brogdon - OUT, S. Henderson - OUT, M. Brown - Questionable
Grizzlies: J. Jackson Jr. - OUT, GG Jackson - Questionable, S. Pippen Jr. - OUT, L. Kennard - Doubtful, K. Konchar - Doubtful, D. Rose - OUT, D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT
Pacers: A. Nesmith - Questionable, D. McDermott - OUT
Pelicans: None
Kings: D. Fox - Questionable
Timberwolves: A. Edwards - Questionable, K. Anderson - Doubtful
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
🆕LineStar NBA Feature Update🆕
As most LineStar Premium subscribers are aware, your subscription includes access to both the mobile app and the desktop LineStar site. Desktop users may notice a new “Team DEF” tool/tab feature that has been added for NBA over the All-Star Break! This tool gives a detailed visual breakdown of team defense and DvP (defense versus position) information with expanded sorting options. This is just another useful tool to help you take a more informed NBA DFS approach! And, if you’re someone who exclusively uses the app, be on the lookout for the “Team DEF” tool coming to LineStar mobile in the near future!
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.4k | vs. CHA
The 76ers (-11) are the heaviest favorites on today’s slate and they should have no major issues putting up points against the Hornets’ 27th-ranked defense. Maxey’s usage has been a hair under 31% L5Games and he’s seen a significant, team-leading +7.6 percentage point increase to his usage rate with Joel Embiid and De’Anthony Melton (both out) off the floor this season. That goes up to a +10.9 percentage point increase when Kelly Oubre Jr. (shoulder/questionable) is off the floor. Maxey has posted a reliable floor in seven consecutive games and he’s due for a ceiling-type performance soon. The 76ers have not scored more than 104 points in any of their last five games but they’re holding a 112.5 implied team total tonight, so Maxey has the potential to put up one of his best fantasy scores in weeks.
PG Jrue Holiday, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DAL (DK Preferred)
FanDuel players may find better mid-range guard options, but Jrue Holiday is under $6k on DraftKings for the first time this season. The Celtics have been juggernauts at home this season where they’re sporting a 27-3 record, and Holiday is shooting a scorching 46% from three-point range at home. He put up a sturdy 38.75 DKFP the last time the Celtics faced off with the Mavs and Dallas is allowing 1.16 FPPM to PGs L5Games. I’m not predicting Holiday will break the slate or anything tonight, but he’s a rock-solid option at this current $5,900 price tag on DraftKings.
PG Jordan Goodwin, MEM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.3k | vs. POR
This match-up features an ugly 207.5 over/under, by far the lowest on the slate, but there is a narrow one-point spread with Memphis being the slight home favorites. The Grizzlies are extra shorthanded today with the team leader in usage, Jaren Jackson Jr., ruled out while guys like Luke Kennard and John Konchar are doubtful. Jordan Goodwin will be in line for another start this evening and he’s a good bet to play 30+ minutes. He has averaged a respectable 0.96 FPPM on the season and he’ll be up against a bottom-10 Trailblazers defense. Goodwin brings ample 6x (or better) upside at these current DFS salaries.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.1k, FD: $12.6k | @ BOS (Currently questionable)
PG Stephen Curry, GSW | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.9k | @ TOR
PG/SG Kyrie Irving, DAL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.3k | @ BOS (Significant bump if Doncic is out)
SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.6k | vs. SAC (Currently questionable)
PG Immanuel Quickley, TOR | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. GSW
PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7k | @ DET (Boost if Mitchell and/or LeVert are out)
SG/SF Vince Williams Jr., MEM | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k | vs. POR
PG Tre Mann, CHA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.1k | @ PHI
PG Chris Paul, GSW | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.3k | @ TOR
SG/SF Ziaire Williams, MEM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.9k | vs. POR
SG Seth Curry, CHA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.8k | @ PHI
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.5k | vs. GSW
Barnes has been on a heater, scoring 1.48 FPPM and averaging 53.4 DKFP/52.1 FDFP over his last five starts. He has two triple-doubles in that span while putting up 21.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 8.0 APG, and 3.4 STL+BLK/gm. Barnes has averaged +9.8% more FPPG at home and he’ll draw a good match-up against the Warriors, who rank 26th versus starting power forwards L20Games, and they’re also on the second leg of a back-to-back. This game could provide the best overall fantasy environment on the slate based on the high 236.5 over/under and narrow spread (TOR: +3).
SF/SG Max Strus, CLE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.9k | @ DET (Boost if Mitchell and/or LeVert are out)
Strus has been a quality value play as of late, posting scores of at least 29.25 DKFP/28.0 FDFP in four of his last five games, and he’s averaging 0.93 FPPM in that span. The Pistons check in at 29th in DEFRTG and they allow the 8th-highest opponent three-point percentage. Strus should be expected to take on some added usage if either Donovan Mitchell or Caris LeVert (both questionable) are ruled out. Since this game tips off at 7:00 ET, we’ll know the status of those two players before the slate officially gets underway.
SF/SG Moses Moody, GSW | DK: $4k, FD: $3.9k | @ TOR
Moody is poised to receive a third consecutive spot start with Andrew Wiggins still out and Brandon Podziemski listed as doubtful (now officially out) on the back end of the B2B. Moody is SG-eligible only on FanDuel but has some added flexibility on DraftKings with his dual SF/SG eligibility. He’s posting a solid 20% USG% and 0.90 FPPM as a starter this season. Moody has played 23 and 26 minutes in his two recent starts, but he has the potential to play closer to 28-32 minutes tonight due to both the Podziemski injury and the fact that Chris Paul is working his way back from an extended absence.
Other Forwards to Consider
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. DAL
PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k | vs. SAC (Boost if A. Edwards is out)
PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.3k | vs. IND
SF/SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. IND
SF/SG Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.1k | vs. DAL
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DAL (DK Preferred)
PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | @ DET
PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.6k | @ TOR
PF/C Naz Reid, MIN | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.3k | vs. SAC (DK Preferred)
PF Santi Aldama, MEM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. POR
PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | vs. POR (Currently questionable)
PF/C Lamar Stevens, MEM | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. POR
SF/PF Isaac Okoro, CLE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.7k | @ DET
SF Jake LaRavia, MEM | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. POR
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Jakob Poeltl, TOR | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.4k | vs. GSW
Center feels like a thin position today but Poeltl has been on an absolute tear and makes plenty of sense out of the mid-range. His minutes have not been sky-high lately -- 26.4 minutes/gm L5Games -- but, in that span, he’s posting a stellar 1.50 FPPM while averaging a double-double (14.0 PG, 10.0 RPG) along with 4.2 APG and 3.2 STL+BLK/gm. We’ll also love the match-up that Poeltl will have in front of him. The Warriors are giving up a slate-high 1.53 FPPM to centers over their last five games. So, while he may not play big minutes, Poeltl is a good bet to go for 40+ FP again tonight even if he’s on the court for about 26-28 minutes.
C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.8k | @ MEM
As mentioned, this game is likely to be an ugly, low-scoring contest between two bad teams, but there are multiple value options to consider on both sides. With Deandre Ayton (hand/doubtful) likely out tonight, Duop Reath should be in line for his 12th start of the season. Backup center Moses Brown (wrist/questionable) could also return tonight but he has been out for the last 25 games dating back to Jan. 1st -- so, even if he is active, he’s likely going to play very limited minutes. Reath has posted a respectable 0.98 FPPM as a starter this season. Memphis is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA so we can put Reath on double-double watch tonight.
Other Centers to Consider
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.4k | @ MIN
C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. SAC
C Paul Reed, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6k | vs. CHA
C Trey Jemison, MEM | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. POR (Assuming he starts)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Herbert Jones MORE than 13.5 Points + Assists
Jakob Poeltl MORE than 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: LINESTAR) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!