Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Tyler & Shannon 

NBA DFS & Prop videos will be posted later this afternoon! View the latest LineStar content by clicking on the link above!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Monday will feature six games on the NBA schedule. The DraftKings main slate will include all six games while FanDuel will have a four-game main slate posted, which excludes the two late games in the 10 o’clock ET window. For the purposes of this newsletter, we’ll elect to only spotlight players in the four mutually shared games. A quick note for DraftKings players -- if you haven’t played since Friday’s non-late swap slate, keep in mind that this evening’s slate will have late swap available. I’m not sure if we’ll see more non-late swap slates on DraftKings but, if I had to guess, I wouldn’t be surprised if that becomes “a thing” for Friday slates in order to cater toward a more casual player base. This should be a fun night of NBA action so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Note: I’m writing today’s newsletter earlier than usual so keep an eye out for additional injury statuses that may not be included on the list below.

• Grizzlies: J. Jackson Jr. - Doubtful, Z. Williams - OUT, S. Pippen Jr. - OUT, D. Rose - OUT, D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT

• Nets: C. Thomas - OUT, B. Simmons - OUT

• Trailblazers: J. Grant - Doubtful, M. Brogdon - OUT, D. Ayton - Questionable, S. Henderson - OUT, M. Thybulle - Questionable

• Timberwolves: None

• Clippers: R. Westbrook - OUT

• Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Questionable, K. Middleton - OUT, M. Beauchamp - Probable

• Wizards: None

• Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, W. Kessler - OUT

DraftKings Main Slate Only

• Bulls: A. Caruso - Questionable, T. Craig - OUT

• Kings: D. Fox - Questionable

• Thunder: Jay. Williams - Questionable

• Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, C. Wood - OUT, C. Reddish - Probable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | vs. POR

There aren’t many high-end guards available on this slate, particularly when we’re looking at the four mutually shared games between the DK and FD main slates. That said, Anthony Edwards will stand out as a high-upside option despite playing 37 minutes last night on the front end of the back-to-back. The Timberwolves (-14.5) are the heaviest favorites on the slate, so a blowout could easily come into play. However, Minnesota has won all three games against Portland this season by at least 12 points, and Edwards has erupted for an average of 57.5 DKFP/57.75 FDFP in the previous two meetings. The Trailblazers have ranked 27th versus shooting guards L10Games. If we exclude the March 1st game in which Edwards left mid-game (played 19 minutes) due to the birth of his first child, you have to go all the way back to February 2nd (12 games) to find a true dud result out of Edwards.

SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.4k | vs. WAS

I’m quite confident that this game between the Jazz and Wizards will feature many of the most popular plays on the slate. Both teams rank top 10 in pace (WAS: 1st, UTA: 9th), bottom six in DEFRTG (WAS: 30th, UTA: 25th), and this match-up boasts a slate-high 241 over/under along with a fairly close spread (UTA: -6). On the Jazz side of things, they’ll be without a big piece of their offense with Lauri Markkanen ruled out for the evening, and Walker Kessler will miss a third consecutive game. While those injuries to the frontcourt may not have a major impact on the Jazz backcourt minutes, it should lead to added usage for a guy like Collin Sexton. Sexton isn’t always a guarantee to play 30+ minutes, but he’s been excellent on a per-minute basis, scoring 1.27 FPPM over his last 20 starts. Sexton is shooting nearly 50% at home this season, including 41.3% from three-point range, and the Wizards have ranked 23rd versus starting SGs L20Games. We should view Sexton as a strong mid-range play today.

PG Ashton Hagans, POR | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | @ MIN

Bit of a gamble here but Ashton Hagans has seen his role grow off of the Trailblazers bench since signing a two-way contract in late February. His two best performances as a professional have come in Portland’s last two games, both against the Grizzlies. One game was a 30-point blowout win, where he posted 23.5 DKFP/26.9 FDFP in 24 minutes, while the second game was a close overtime win, where Hagans provided 35.25 DKFP/34 FDFP in 33 minutes. Portland is still thin in the backcourt with Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson, and Shaedon Sharpe out of the picture tonight and, if the last couple of games are any indication, Hagans should continue to handle a meaningful workload off of the bench.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.7k, FD: N/A | @ LAL (DK Main Slate Only)

PG Damian Lillard, MIL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LAC (Preferred if Giannis is out)

PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.3k, FD: N/A | @ SAC (DK Main Slate Only)

PG Keyonte George, UTA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. WAS

PG/SG Jordan Poole, WAS | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | @ UTA

PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: N/A | @ SAC (DK Main Slate Only)

PG Jordan Goodwin, MEM | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.9k | @ BKN

SG/SF Norman Powell, LAC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.1k | @ MIL

PG/SG Patrick Beverley, MIL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. LAC

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ UTA

Kuzma has been in some rare form lately, notching at least 46.0 DKFP/41.4 FDFP in five of his last six games. He projects for extremely heavy ownership tonight, and a chalky Kuzma is always a scary Kuzma, so he’ll be one guy you’ll have to take a stance on for this slate… whether it’s to eat the chalk or fade/drastically lower exposure. It’s tough to hate on Kuzma’s match-up as the Jazz have ranked dead last versus power forwards L10Games with a net DvP of +3.55 FPPG. Kuzma also averages +10% more FPPG when well-rested (WAS hasn’t played since Friday). FanDuel has done a better job at pricing Kuzma appropriately, given his recent surge, but he feels like a great mid-range bargain at $7,400 on DraftKings.

PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.5k | vs. LAC (Major boost if Giannis is out)

Portis will become one of the most popular plays of the day if Giannis Antetokounmpo (Achilles/questionable) happens to be ruled out but, assuming the Greek Freak suits up, Portis will still make for an intriguing mid-range PF/C play. While he typically plays low-20s minutes off of the Bucks’ bench, he’s been a beast on a per-minute basis, averaging a whopping 1.47 FPPM over his last four games (23.3 minutes/gm). He has also been at his best at home this season where he is averaging 1.21 FPPM, versus 0.99 FPPM on the road. I would assume Giannis plays tonight despite the “questionable” tag, but it would be completely reasonable to assume that his minutes may be slightly monitored. If that is the case, Portis would have a wider pathway to playing upper-20s minutes, in which case he could quickly return value on these current DFS salaries. And he’d come close to “lock” territory if Giannis watches from the sidelines tonight.

SF/PF Brice Sensabaugh, UTA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. WAS (Preferred if starting)

There will be some opportunity in the Jazz frontcourt with the aforementioned Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler absences this evening. Without knowing the starting lineup at the time of this writing, the “safer” Jazz value forward looks to be rookie PF Taylor Hendricks (DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.3k), who has played pretty well and has started each of the last five games. But there is at least a moderately strong chance that Brice Sensabaugh will also pick up a spot start tonight in place of Markkanen, and he’s incredibly cheap across the DFS industry. Sensabaugh was the 28th overall pick in the 2023 draft but has appeared in just 11 NBA games in this, his rookie season. However, he has played at least 13 minutes in five consecutive games heading into tonight, so he’s clearly a player that the Jazz are looking to get more involved down the regular season stretch. Sensabaugh has been solid in 13 G League games this season, posting 19.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.6 STL+BLK/gm across 27.5 minutes/gm. He’s averaging an unremarkable 0.60 FPPM at the NBA level but, if he starts and plays heavier minutes, he could manage to get into a groove and put up some decent numbers. We don’t exactly need a heroic performance out of Sensabaugh at these dirt-cheap DFS salaries, but I’d be less interested in him if he’s not in the starting lineup.

Other Forwards to Consider

PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12k | vs. LAC (Currently questionable)

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.7k, FD: N/A | vs. OKC (DK Main Slate Only - Currently questionable)

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $9k, FD: $9.6k | @ MIL

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $7.7k, FD: N/A | @ SAC (DK Main Slate Only)

PF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $7.3k, FD: N/A | @ LAL (DK Main Slate Only)

PF/C John Collins, UTA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. WAS

PF Cameron Johnson, BKN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | vs. MEM

PF Gregory “GG” Jackson, MEM | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ BKN

PF Taylor Hendricks, UTA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. WAS

PF/C Jabari Walker, POR | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.5k | @ MIN

SF/SG Talen Horton-Tucker, UTA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. WAS

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Rudy Gobert, MIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. POR

Essentially all of the top center-only eligible plays today will be sequestered into the two late games, which are only included on the DraftKings main slate. As mentioned, I only want to spotlight players available for both DK and FD main slates, but you can find the favorable center plays in those late games listed below. Rudy Gobert is an option on both sites and he draws a plus match-up against a Portland team that allows the 5th most points in the paint per game, ranks 22nd in rebounding%, and allows THE most opponent blocks per game (7.5). Portland has also ranked 29th against starting centers L20Games. In three previous meetings against Portland this season, Gobert has averaged 17.0 PPG, 14.7 RPG, 1.7 BLK/gm, and 1.0 APG. I do have some concerns about the back-to-back factor since Gobert logged 40 minutes last night but, for the most part, he’s been fine on the second leg of B2Bs this season. The T-Wolves can probably win this game with ease even if they limit their starters a bit, but as long as he doesn’t pop up on the injury report later today, Gobert is a very strong bet for a double-double and multiple blocks against a soft Trailblazers interior defense that may still be without Deandre Ayton (hand/questionable).

C Marvin Bagley III, WAS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.9k | @ UTA

There is not much center value at the time of this writing but Bagley is going to be a worthwhile play out of the $6k range. He has met salary-based expectations in five of his last eight games where he has scored at least 33.5 DKFP/34.0 FDFP. The Jazz are surrendering 1.41 FPPM to opposing centers L10Games and not having the shot-blocking prowess of Walker Kessler (out) will leave them more vulnerable in the paint. If he works his way to 30+ minutes tonight, a dud is highly unlikely out of Bagley in this spot and he could go for another 40+ FP.

Other Centers to Consider

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.5k, FD: N/A | vs. CHI (DK Main Slate Only)

C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.1k, FD: N/A | vs. OKC (DK Main Slate Only)

C Chet Holmgren, OKC | DK: $8k, FD: N/A | @ LAL (DK Main Slate Only)

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: N/A | @ SAC (DK Main Slate Only)

C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.3k | vs. LAC (Boost if Giannis is out)

C Andre Drummond, CHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: N/A | @ SAC (DK Main Slate Only)

C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.6k | @ MIN (Only if D. Ayton is out + Reath starts)

PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Marvin Bagley III MORE than 7.5 Rebounds

Anthony Davis MORE than 13.5 Rebounds

🔥 Props AI 🔥

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!