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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 3/6 | Numerous Injury Impacts on Wednesday's Eight-Game Slate
Top NBA DFS Plays & Pick'Em Picks 3/6 | Numerous Injury Impacts on Wednesday's Eight-Game Slate
Top DFS Plays & Pick 'Ems for Wednesday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Pick’Em Prop Offers 3/6/24 💸
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Another eight-game main slate will hit the board tonight! As you’ll see below, there are a heap of injuries to take into account today. Many of these injuries involve key starters who have already been ruled out, while a few others remain questionable. We’ll have plenty of flexibility when it comes to lineup construction and the amount of value we’ll have to choose from. So, this should be a fun night of NBA DFS! Let’s get after it! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries
Magic: W. Carter Jr. - Questionable, G. Harris - OUT, J. Isaac - OUT
Wizards: M. Bagley III - OUT
Cavaliers: D. Mitchell - OUT, E. Mobley - OUT, M. Strus - OUT
Hawks: T. Young - OUT, O. Okongwu - OUT, D. Hunter - Probable, K. Bufkin - OUT
Grizzlies: J. Jackson Jr. - Questionable, Z. Williams - OUT, S. Pippen Jr. - OUT, D. Rose - OUT, Y. Watanabe - OUT, D. Bane - OUT, M. Smart - OUT
76ers: J. Embiid - OUT, T. Maxey - OUT, K. Lowry - OUT, D. Melton - OUT
Clippers: R. Westbrook - OUT
Rockets: J. Smith Jr. - Questionable, T. Eason - OUT, Je. Green - Questionable
Bulls: T. Craig - Doubtful, D. Terry - Questionable
Jazz: L. Markkanen - OUT, K. George - OUT, T. Hendricks - OUT, W. Kessler - OUT
Thunder: Jay. Williams - OUT
Trailblazers: J. Grant - Questionable, M. Brogdon - OUT, D. Ayton - Doubtful, S. Henderson - OUT, T. Camara - Questionable, M. Thybulle - Questionable
Bucks: G. Antetokounmpo - Questionable, K. Middleton - OUT, J. Crowder - Probable, M. Beauchamp - Probable
Warriors: None
Kings: None
Lakers: A. Davis - Probable, L. James - Questionable, C. Reddish - Probable, C. Wood - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Darius Garland, CLE | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.8k | @ ATL
Some high-impact players on both sides of this game will watch from the sidelines tonight. On the Cavs’ side, they’ll be down three starters with Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus all ruled out this evening. In 138 minutes with those three players off the floor this season, Garland has seen a +6.3 percentage points boost to his usage rate and a +6.1 increase to his fantasy points per 32 minutes. The Hawks have ranked 25th versus PG starters L20Games and are allowing 1.20 FPPM to the position in that span. While this game does not boast a huge total (214.5 over/under) it is tied for the closest spread of the slate (CLE: +2.5). We haven’t seen a truly massive game out of Garland in a while, but tonight is a strong spot for a ceiling-type performance.
PG D’Angelo Russell, LAL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SAC
This nightcap match-up between the Lakers and Kings stands out in a big way due to its 240 over/under (12.5 points higher than the next closest over/under) and narrow spread (LAL: -2.5). Russell has been a strong guard option out of the mid-range and has secured at least 37.75 DKFP/36.6 FDFP in eight of his last 11 games. Starting PGs are also averaging 39.0 DKFP/37.7 FDFP against the Kings L20Games. Russell has been at his best at home this season where he is shooting 49.1% overall and 44.2% from three-point range -- compared to a 44.0% FG% and 37.9% 3P% on the road. The last time the Lakers played the Kings, which was also a home game, Russell came away with 44.75 DKFP/42.5 FDFP. We can expect a similar score out of him tonight, and his floor/ceiling would only increase if LeBron James (ankle/questionable) were to be ruled out.
PG Cameron Payne, PHI | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4k | vs. MEM
This is some pretty obvious chalk today since the 76ers will be without three members of their backcourt -- Tyrese Maxey, Kyle Lowry, and De’Anthony Melton -- and they’re of course still without their superstar high-usage center, Joel Embiid. Barring a surprise, Cameron Payne should earn another spot start and play as many minutes as he can handle. Payne is dirt cheap and has averaged 1.08 FPPM as a starter this season. He could easily end up being the highest-owned player on the slate but Payne is some tough chalk to fade tonight.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11k | @ POR
PG Damian Lillard, MIL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.9k | @ GSW (Boost if Giannis is out)
PG James Harden, LAC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.8k | @ HOU
PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.6k | @ LAL (DK Preferred)
PG Coby White, CHI | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | @ UTA
SG Collin Sexton, UTA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CHI
SG/SF Jordan Clarkson, UTA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CHI
PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | @ UTA
PG/SG Luke Kennard, MEM | DK: $5k, FD: $5.2k | @ PHI
SG Sam Merrill, CLE | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.8k | @ ATL
SG Delano Blanton, POR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. OKC (Preferred if starting again)
PG/SG Kris Dunn, UTA | DK: $4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. CHI
PG/SG Patrick Beverly, MIL | DK: $4k, FD: $4.6k | @ GSW
SG Johnny Juzang, UTA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. CHI
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | @ UTA
DeRozan is rarely the most exciting play but he’s a guy who is also rarely going to disappoint you. In any competitive game, as this one should be (CHI: -4), DeRozan is going to be locked into around 40 minutes, and he’s averaging 1.07 FPPM and 39.8 minutes/gm over his last five starts. The Jazz also rate out poorly against opposing power forwards, checking in at 27th versus PF starters L20Games. There are some higher upside forwards you could choose to roll with out of this price range, but DDR is perpetually a rock-solid cash game play.
PF/C John Collins, UTA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. CHI
The Jazz have found a way to mostly stay healthy for much of this season, which has led to a deep rotation and fewer minutes for their starters. However, they’re now down four key starters/rotational players with Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, and Walker Kessler sidelined tonight. Collins, who has averaged 28.5 minutes/gm L20Games, will be more likely to play around 34-36 minutes tonight due to those injuries. He is averaging a strong 1.21 FPPM L20Games along with a double-double (15.6 PPG, 10.1 RPG). Collins is coming off of a big game on Monday against the Wizards where he supplied 49.75 DKFP/51.5 FDFP across 35 minutes. He did rack up six blocks, which is clearly an outlier, but he’ll be a good bet to put up another 40+ FP this evening, making him an appealing option at this $7,100 price tag on both sites.
PF/C Dean Wade, CLE | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4k | @ ATL
This is a play that could easily backfire since Wade should land a spot start in place of Evan Mobley (ankle/out), and he’s coming off of a huge game last night where 20 of his 23 points came in the fourth quarter, which helped erase a 22-point Boston Celtics lead. But Wade is extremely cheap, so we’re taking an “aim small, miss small” approach. There is also some usage to go around with Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus out tonight. In 116.5 minutes with those three players off the court this season, Wade has seen a moderate usage bump and has averaged +10.8 more FPPG per 32 minutes.
Other Forwards to Consider
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.5k, FD: $12k | @ GSW (Currently questionable)
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.3k | vs. SAC (Currently questionable)
PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.7k | @ WAS
SF/PF Tobias Harris, PHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. MEM
PF/C Kyle Kuzma, WAS | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.6k | vs. ORL (DK Preferred)
PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | @ GSW (Major boost if Giannis is out)
SF/SG Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $6.3k | @ ATL
PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | @ LAL
SF/SG Kelly Oubre Jr., PHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.9k | vs. MEM
SF/PF Isaac Okoro, CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5k | @ ATL
PF/C Luka Samanic, UTA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. CHI (Preferred if starting)
SF/PF Brice Sensabaugh, UTA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. CHI (Preferred if starting)
SF/PF Georges Niang, CLE | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.8k | @ ATL
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.5k | @ LAL
It’s tough to beat the reliability of Domantas Sabonis, who is a nightly triple-double threat and seldom posts a dud. He’s averaging 19.4 PPG, 14.8 RPG, and 9.3 APG L20Games to go along with a 1.53 FPPM average. Sabonis has posted just one true dud performance in his last 16 games, and that came in a road game in Denver, where many bigs tend to struggle due to the extreme elevation. The Lakers have ranked bottom 10 versus starting centers L20Games and the last time these teams met, Sabonis erupted for a 29/16/7 stat line, which included four combined blocks/steals, and produced 67.5 DKFP/66.7 FDFP. A similar performance would not be a major surprise tonight.
C Jarrett Allen, CLE | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | @ ATL
With Evan Mobley out tonight, Allen is going to stand out as one of the best center plays out of the mid-range. Many of Allen’s best performances from this season came in that 23-game span where Mobley was out with injury between Dec. 8th and Jan. 26th. Allen’s per-minute production has gone down recently (1.02 FPPM L5Games), but he has averaged 1.24 FPPM with both Mobley and Donovan Mitchell off the floor this season. He is averaging -25% less FPPG on the second leg of back-to-backs (played 35 minutes last night), but the Hawks are also on the back end of a back-to-back so neither team is exactly ‘fresh’ heading into this one.
Other Centers to Consider
C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.4k | vs. SAC (DK Preferred)
C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.2k | @ UTA
C Chet Holmgren, OKC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | @ POR
C Duop Reath, POR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.7k | vs. OKC
C Wendell Carter Jr., ORL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6k | @ WAS (Currently questionable)
PF/C Moritz Wagner, ORL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.8k | @ WAS (Preffered if W. Carter Jr. is out)
C Richaun Holmes, WAS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. ORL (Preferred if starting)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play of the Day ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Cameron Payne MORE than 13.5 Points
Domantas Sabonis MORE than 21.5 Rebounds + Assists
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!