It's officially time to get in gear for a brand-new NBA season! We start off slow with a small two-game slate tonight but we'll get our toes wet before the real action begins tomorrow!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

NBA DFS Tips & Advice 💡

Welcome back to NBA, everyone! We are officially living in the “sweet spot” for sports fans with so many major sports now in full swing.

I know many of you have taken NBA DFS very seriously and have been in the game for many years so feel free to skip this portion of the newsletter. For those of you who are either brand new to the sport or need a quick reminder on what’s important, here is a quick bullet point list of what you NEED to know before getting serious about NBA DFS:

> Be available close to tip-off so you can monitor the latest news: Hey, life happens, and NBA DFS isn’t the most important thing. Sometimes you’re not going to be able to be around your computer or phone to make DFS lineup adjustments. But, in NBA DFS, it is extremely important that you try to at least keep up with breaking injury news, late scratches, and starting lineup changes, which are generally released closer to tip-off. Since there are almost always going to be some later west coast games, sometimes it may be beneficial to late swap some players in your lineups after the earlier games have already begun. The NBA is arguably the most hectic sport regarding the amount of impactful late-breaking news that comes out. If you don’t believe you’ll be available to keep up with things leading up to games tipping off, consider either taking the slate off or playing very lightly. Otherwise, you essentially risk burning your hard-earned money. I also recommend having mobile push notifications turned on starting NBA lineups. On the LineStar app, you can do this by going to “Settings > My Notifications > Show Notifications > Turn on Confirmed Lineups Notifications.” You can also turn on notifications for projection updates and breaking news.

> Pay attention to Vegas spreads, point totals and individual implied team totals: Pretty simple here -- you want to have exposure to players who will be involved in competitive, high-scoring games. The closer a specific game is, the higher likelihood that starters on both ends will play 35-40 minutes. Also, teams with lofty implied point totals (generally around 115+ implied points) can often provide more favorable DFS targets. Games with large spreads could also signal the potential for extra minutes and run for some bench players due to a blowout. This can routinely be useful for finding value DFS plays.

> Factor in NBA pace statistics: A team’s pace of play is a very simple but important metric to pay attention to. A fast-paced team that operates quickly, doesn’t bleed the shot clock, and puts up a ton of shots will lead to game environments with more scoring, assists, and rebounds AKA all of the most important things related to NBA DFS scoring. We want exposure to players in fast-paced games. This info is also useful when factoring in a fast-paced team being negatively affected by a slow team and vice versa.

> Usage, Usage, Usage: The “usage rate” (or just “usage”) stat is defined as follows: (field goal attempts + possession-ending free throw attempts + turnovers) / possessions. Point blank, guys with high usage rates are going to put up the most shot attempts. This is usually going to be the single most important individual stat to pay attention to. Also, if a high-usage player is injured or off the court, it is crucial to see how that impacts the usage rates of his teammates. The “Usage Matrix” tool on LineStar can help you with all of the usage data you need to know or find out!

> Defensive Efficiency and DvP (Defense vs. Position): Some teams are just not going to be great defensively and/or struggle against certain positions. Be mindful of these match-ups and where you can take advantage!

> Using Projections Correctly: DFS projections aren’t everything, and sometimes I believe people rely on them a little *too* much. As our guy ZeroInDenver often says, “projections are not a crystal ball.” However, a ton of aggregate data goes into projections, which can help you with a general sense of how a player could perform in any game.

> Aiming for a Certain “x” Value Per Player Based on Salary: This is more important if you’re hand-building a single lineup, especially for cash game contests (double-ups, 50/50s, head-to-heads, triple-ups). This can be very “slate dependent,” but a general rule of thumb for NBA cash games on DraftKings is hunting for players who can safely return 5x to 6x fantasy points based on their DFS salary. For instance, if a player costs $6,000, you’ll want to feel confident in getting 30-36 DKFP out of that player. Certain players can provide a safer floor for 5x-6x (good for cash games) but don’t have 6x-8x “GPP winning upside.” Many players with 6x-8x upside often have a lower floor, so they’re more suitable for GPPs.

> Figure out a DFS process that works for you: No one will cash every day. If you play NBA DFS every day, there will be times when you completely bomb for several days in a row. It happens. Sometimes it just boils down to tough luck -- your stud player gets injured in the first quarter, a game that was expected to be close turns into a blowout, a guy gets into early foul trouble, etc. It is easy to get frustrated with NBA DFS so be sure to constantly be prepared to tweak and adjust your DFS process. What works for one person may not work for the next!

> Practice Smart Bankroll Management & Contest Selection: This is intrinsic when it comes to any DFS sport, but it’s worth mentioning briefly. Be smart with your bankroll. If you want to be profitable long-term, don’t go out and blow 50% of your bankroll on a single slate. I’d recommend a 5% to 10% daily spend but to each their own. Also, you don’t need to go out and max enter GPPs with 150 lineups to be successful. Figure out what contests work for you. I know some people strictly play GPPs, but I often recommend finding a good balance between GPPs and cash games in order to sustain long-term profitability.

Alright, I don’t want this intro to get too lengthy and I believe I’ve covered the core NBA DFS basics so let’s get into today’s slate!

Main Slate Rundown 📰

I’d recommend treading lightly on today’s season-opening two-game slate. We’ll have more of a typical large slate to dig into beginning tomorrow so consider this as a bit of an appetizer for what’s ahead! It’s also going to take at least a solid week or two before we have a more cemented idea of what starting lineups, rotations, and usage rates look like for each team this year so just exercise some additional caution early on in the season. Here’s to a great season for the LineStar crew!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG James Harden, PHI | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.9k | @ BOS | GPP Preferred

The overall feeling is that it’s best to save salary at the guard positions today. James Harden’s fantasy production was on a noticeable downtrend last season and this is a tough match-up with a Celtics team that ranked 1st in defensive efficiency last season. Harden is also likely to match up with reigning DPOY Marcus Smart for much of this game. With that said, we know Harden has great peripheral stats with triple-double upside, and, even for a two-game slate, he could come in fairly under-owned. With most starters facing light minutes restrictions to begin the season, Harden remains a decent bet to see around 35 minutes of run tonight. He’s a worthy GPP spend-up option.

PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $5k, FD: $6.5k | @ BOS | Cash & GPP

Maxey will be the heavily preferred guard option on the 76ers, and he owns a “can’t miss” price on DraftKings. He’ll play quality minutes (35.3 Min/G last season) with the starters and put up plenty of shots while he’s on the court. He doesn’t offer much in the way of assists and rebounds, but he will pick up a few dimes and boards simply by being on the court so much. He averaged 0.84 DKFPPM over his last 20 games, which isn’t amazing, but it’s enough to get him where he needs to be, value-wise.

SG/SF Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.9k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP

PG/SG Kendrick Nunn, LAL | DK: $3k, FD: $4.3k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP

I’m lumping these two guys together because it’s currently unclear how the Lakers starting lineup will look tonight. With pre-season buzz surrounding Russell Westbrook coming off of the bench to command the second unit, one of either Reaves or Nunn would be expected to enter the starting rotation. My money would be on Reaves, for now, but it could just as well be Nunn who gets the starting nod. Regardless of how the starting lineup looks, both of these guys have the potential to handle 25-30 minutes of action. Reaves averaged the most Min/G in the Lakers’ preseason and contributed across the board with some decent figures (6.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.8 S+BPG). Nunn also performed well in the preseason, averaging 12.6 PPG with 3.0 RPG and 2.4 APG on 19.4 Min/G.

Also Consider:

PG Steph Curry, GSW | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred

PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.2k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP

PG/SG Patrick Beverly, LAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.9k | @ GSW | GPP Preferred

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.8k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP

It’s year 20 for LeBron, and he is set to remain a staple in NBA DFS lineups for as long as his body will allow him. He hasn’t been the iron man from years past but as long as he heads into a game healthy, he will continue to provide elite usage and DFS returns. He averaged 58.2 DKFPPG and 1.51 DKFPPM over his last 20 games of the season which is clearly the sort of production we want from a high-dollar player. Of the two games on the slate, this one is easily expected to be the higher-scoring affair with a 224.5 O/U. The Lakers are +7 underdogs tonight against the defending champs and you know LeBron is going to want to make a statement to begin the season.

PF/C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.1k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP

We must take advantage of the soft early-season pricing on studs like Anthony Davis… especially while he’s healthy -- well, mostly healthy. Davis currently carries a “questionable” injury designation into this game due to a supposed back issue, but he is officially probable to play. In 35.1 Min/G last season, Davis owned a strong 27.1% USG% while averaging 23.2 PPG, 9.9 RPG, and 2.3 BPG. He was also a monster in limited preseason work where he averaged 19.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 1.0 BPG in just 21.4 Min/G. At these DFS salaries, we’ll definitely need to get to him before he inevitably misses time with some other obscure injury.

PF/C Al Horford, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP

He may be entering his age 36 season, but Horford was a crucial part of the Celtics’ 2021-22 postseason run, and he is expected to continue to be right around a “fantasy point per minute” type of player (0.96 FPPM L20Gms) while playing around 30 Min/G. His minutes are firmly solidified, with C Robert Williams (knee) not expected to return until the second half of the season. Horford is not going to command an elite usage rate with guys like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on the court, but he remains a solid double-double candidate, and, for a big man, he contributes well with assists and steals to go along with some quality block upside (1.3 BPG last season).

Also Consider:

SG/SF Jaylen Brown, BOS | DK: $8k, FD: $8k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP

PF/C PJ Tucker, PHI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.1k | @ BOS | GPP Preferred

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.7k | @ BOS | GPP Preferred

Embiid is the only elite center on this slate so he’ll command some consideration almost by default. I imagine most will choose to pay up on the two Lakers studs tonight so Embiid could provide some moderate leverage in tournaments, though he will still garner high ownership either way. It’s a tough match-up with Boston, but Embiid did rack up at least 55 DKFP in three of four match-ups against them last season, which included a monster 73 DKFP performance back on December 20th, 2021. Even with James Harden on the court, the perennial MVP candidate should continue to operate as the usage leader for the 76ers (37.2% USG%, 30.6 PPG last season) and he’s a near lock for a double-double in any game he plays his normal minutes.

C Damian Jones, LAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.5k | @ GSW | Cash & GPP

Jones comes over from the Sacramento Kings and is set to fill in as the Lakers' backup center while C Thomas Bryant (thumb) is sidelined. It’s also possible he cracks the starting rotation as well. Either way, Jones should handle around 15-20 minutes of work in this game, and he’s an effective fantasy scorer on the court. Jones averaged a hair over a FPPM last season (1.07 FPPM L20Gms) so it’s easy to see why he should hit value despite playing a limited role.

Also Consider:

C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Al Horford to Record a Double-Double: YES | +375 (PointsBet) | 0.75 Units

Hey, it’s early in the season and we don’t fully know how minutes/usage will shake out so why not go for some non-standard prop bets with strong plus-money odds? Horford has a tough match-up down low in Joel Embiid’s territory, but he does project for around 30-32 minutes to begin the year with C Robert Williams (knee) sidelined for the foreseeable future. Across his last 20 games, Horford has averaged 11.9 PPG and 9.5 RPG so he’s damn near close to averaging a double-double in that stretch. It’s a bit risky, mainly due to the match-up, but I’ll throw a small wager here given the cushy +375 odds.

If you’d prefer a ‘safer’ prop, Horford OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-135, Caesars) looks like a strong bet as well.

James Harden OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made | +150 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

We know James Harden is no stranger to chucking it from beyond the arc. He proved that to be true once again in the preseason. Harden averaged 23.3 Min/G in three preseason games. In that time, he attempted 5.0 3PA/G and made 2.3 3P/G -- good for a 46.7% 3P%. It’s only a small preseason sample size and all that but Harden is obviously going to play more than 23 minutes tonight and he was nearly hitting the over on this prop in that limited time. If the odds were closer to even money, perhaps I’d look elsewhere but this prop is worth some legitimate consideration at +150.

Also, while we’re at it, maybe consider a small 0.25 - 0.5 Unit wager on Harden to record a triple-double? It’s not likely, but you can get that prop at +1300 on DraftKings.

PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Stephen Curry MORE than 0.5 Points*

Anthony Davis MORE than 34.5 P/R/A

*This is a special PrizePicks promo prop they're running for tonight's season tip-off. Obviously, barring some bizarre early-game injury, it's guaranteed to hit. Be sure to take advantage of this promo while you can!

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!