It's time to bring the ruckus for tonight's huge 12-game NBA slate! Let's get into some of the best DFS plays and props to consider for tonight...

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

Main Slate Rundown 📰

Day two of the NBA season rolls around but, for DFS purposes, this feels like the first real day of the season. A mammoth 12-game slate is on the board for today so we’ll have a much more expansive player pool to pick and choose from. The need to remain cautious in the early goings of the NBA season remains in effect. Minutes, usage rates, pace of play, and rotations are still largely unknown for many players/teams -- especially when it comes to the teams that have added (or lost) star players. The good thing about a slate this large is that we aren’t necessarily as pressured to rely on bench players in our lineups. Trying to predict minutes/usage for non-starters in the opening days/weeks of the season is a headache in itself, as I’m sure anyone who got burned by guys like Austin Reaves or Damian Jones yesterday can attest.

In case you’re brand new to NBA DFS, feel free to check out some advice/tips given at the top of yesterday’s newsletter, in case you missed it! Alright, let’s get into this thing!

Also, a quick reminder: make sure you’re getting in on all of the early season DFS freerolls that are being offered! There are several on DraftKings, including a big $100k main slate freeroll!

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.9k | @ PHX | Cash & GPP

I don’t know about anyone else, but I love having a player in my lineups who can operate as a “late-night hammer” (AKA a stud player who can go off in one of the late West Coast games). Luka is never going to be particularly sneaky, and ownership will certainly reflect that today, but he’s going to be an extremely difficult fade given his depressed salaries. Luka got up to around $12k on both DK and FD last season so we’re clearly getting a bargain on a superstar player whose usage should not see any significant changes. Doncic owned a massive 37.4% USG% last season while adding excellent peripheral stats: 8.7 APG, 9.1 RPG, 1.8 Blk+Stl/G. This isn’t a game that owns one of the higher totals on this slate, with “just” a 218 O/U. Still, that remains a decent total and the spread is reasonably close as well, with the Mavs coming in as +4.5 underdogs. Despite the five-figure price tag, Doncic has a great chance to return 6x value or better tonight.

PG Kevin Porter Jr., HOU | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.4k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

There is no shortage of high total games on this slate but this Rockets/Hawks match-up tops them all with a massive 234.5 O/U. Sure, the Rockets are +10 point underdogs but, let’s be honest -- they’re probably going to be double-digit underdogs on a routine basis this season. This is the second-youngest team in the NBA, behind the Thunder, so their young starters aren’t going to necessarily get pulled early in the case of a blowout. Maybe once in a while, but it is unlikely, especially this early in the season. The Houston young guns need all the experience they can get and Kevin Porter Jr. is the guy running the show at the point. You can look back on KPJ’s late-season results and see the sort of DFS upside the fourth-year PG provides -- he averaged 1.33 FPPM over his final five games and 1.17 FPPM over his last 20. KPJ also put up some great numbers in his four preseason games: 24.7 Min/G, 16.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.8 Stl/G, and he shot an extremely impressive 52.6% for three-point range. He’s a strong PG option out of the mid-range today, especially if he pushes for 35+ minutes, which he has a strong chance to do.

PG Tre Jones, SAS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.1k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP

Tre Jones is poised to take over as the starting PG for the Spurs this year and he performed very well from a DFS standpoint whenever he was given the starting nod last season. He’s well over a FPPM guy with a 1.11 FPPM over his last 20 games as a starter so it is easy to see why he should crush value at his designated DFS salaries today. Charlotte was not great against PGs last season and that’s likely to continue this season. There’s always a chance we could get “Pop’d” by Spurs HC Gregg Popovich, a notorious enemy of DFS players. But there just seem to be very few scenarios where Tre Jones *doesn’t* play 30+ minutes tonight. He’s an excellent value PG target today.

Also Consider:

PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. NYK | GPP Preferred

PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.1k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP

SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.2k | @ SAS | Cash & GPP

PG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $7k, FD: $7.9k | vs. ORL | GPP Preferred

SG Jalen Green, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.4k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

SG/SF Devin Vassell, SAS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.7k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred

This is expected to be one of the slower-paced, low-scoring games of the evening against a tough Heat defense, so there are much safer routes to take at the SF/PF positions. But the big news here centers around the absence of SG Zach Lavine (knee) in Chicago’s starting lineup today. PG Lonzo Ball (knee) will also be sidelined for the foreseeable future. When those two players were off of the court last season, DeRozan saw a +6.46 USG% bump and averaged an additional +11.81 FP per 48 minutes. So this could take DeRozan up towards a 35% USG% and he’s likely to play 35-40 minutes. His floor is a little ‘iffy’ due to a lack of strong peripheral stats, and DeRozan also doesn’t put up many 3PA (1.9 3PA/G last season). But, again, his usage is going to be incredibly strong as long as this game stays close and he’s likely to come in with around 5% ownership.

PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.5k | @ MEM | Cash & GPP

We get a nice early-season discount on Julius Randle, who was routinely a $9k+ player a season ago. His usage (28.7% USG% last season) may take a slight hit this year, but around 35 minutes and 15-20 FGA is a solid baseline expectation for Randle. And he’s a guy who can stuff the stat sheet with rebounds (10.0 RPG in 2021-22) and assists (5.1 APG in 2021-22) as well. This is also simply a strong game environment against a Grizzlies team that ranked 3rd in pace last year. Randle is set up as a strong floor/upside play and likely won’t garner very high ownership.

SG/SF Josh Hart, POR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.5k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP

I thought about including Hart in the guard section but he has SG/SF eligibility on both DK and FD and is expected to primarily play as a SF anyhow, so he’ll find a landing spot here. Hart is well over a FPPM type of player (1.18 FPPM L20Gms) and his combination of being a solid secondary offensive contributor along with his quality defense should lead to a consistent 30+ Min/G role. Hart is also one of the best “under 6’6” rebounders” in the NBA and he brought down 7.2 RPG a season ago. Combine that with the fact that he’ll likely put up around 12-15 shots in a fast-paced game and that will make Hart a standout value target on this slate.

Also Consider:

SF/PF Kevin Durant, BKN | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | vs. NOP | GPP Preferred

PG/SF Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred

SF/PF Kelly Oubre, CHA | DK; $5.5k, FD: $5.1k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred

**PF Terry Taylor, IND | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. WAS | Cash & GPP

**Primarily if PF/C Jalen Smith (knee) gets ruled out.

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.6k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP

Everyone knows this man is a beast so there’s nothing creative about saying “play Jokic tonight.” He’s not as discounted on FanDuel, but the $10,300 price tag for him on DraftKings is a joke of a price -- which I guess is suitable for the one they call “the Joker.” The Utah Jazz no longer have perennial DPOTY candidate Rudy Gobert defending the paint so, honestly, the only way I see Jokic disappointing in this spot is in the case of a blowout (DEN -7 favorites). Which, even in blowouts, Jokic’s elite FPPM production (1.84 FPPM L20Gms) gives him a strong chance to return 50-60 FP. You could also argue that the return of PG Jamal Murray will eat into Jokic’s offensive output, which is a fair concern, but Murray may also face some sort of minutes restriction since he is seeing his first NBA action since 4/12/2021. I just can’t imagine Utah’s starting bigs (Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt, Lauri Markkanen) having any real hope of containing Jokic tonight.

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k | vs. POR | Cash & GPP

We’ve got a load of great centers to choose from tonight so, if you’re not rolling with the Joker, or if you’re looking to play multiple centers in the same lineup on DK, Sabonis is another big man worth a look. He’s a double-double machine who averaged 18.9 PPG and 12.1 RPG last season and this is poised to be one of the best game environments on the slate. This game features a close spread (SAC -3), a high total (229 O/U), and both of these teams have a chance to rank inside the top half of the league in pace of play. Sabonis provides a great floor with strong upside assuming he plays around 35 minutes.

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.9k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP

There is potentially some meat on the bone on FanDuel, at his $7,900 salary there. However, $6,400 for Adebayo on DraftKings just seems like an egregious misprice. This is a guy who routinely posts 40 DKFP games and his ceiling resides in the 60 DKFP range. There are some hints at Adebayo increasing his role offensively and that seemed to be the case in the preseason where he put up 13.3 FGA/G and averaged 21.3 PPG in just 24.7 Min/G. His usage rate was at 25% last season which netted him 19.1 PPG. If that gets bumped closer to a 30% USG%, he’s going to put up some huge numbers this season. Adebayo is one of the best defensive centers in the league, which led to 2.2 Blk+Stl/G last season to go along with 10.1 RPG. Keep Adebayo on the radar today if you’re looking to save some cash at center.

Also Consider:

C Kristaps Porzingis, WAS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.9k | @ IND | Cash & GPP

C Jusuf Nurkic, POR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k | @ SAC | GPP Preferred

C Jakob Poeltl, SAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.9k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Josh Hart OVER 19.5 Points + Rebounds | -106 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Hart, who was highlighted above, is an excellent rebounder despite his 6’5” size. This game (229 O/U) should feature ample shot attempts between two fast-paced teams. That obviously means more potential rebound opportunities for Hart, and he’s a decent bet to put up 12-15 shots of his own. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets close to hitting the over on this prop via points alone, but he should also come down with around 6-to-10 boards.

Karl Anthony-Towns UNDER 9.5 Rebounds | +105 (Caesars) | 1.5 Units

Unders are always a bit more uncomfortable to wager on but this one stands out today. With the new addition of Rudy Gobert, one of the top rebounding centers in the NBA, KAT will likely see fewer opportunities for boards as he spends most of his time at the four position. He averaged 9.8 RPG last season so this prop is right around where his 2021-22 season average was. While he should still see heavy usage offensively, his rebounds are almost guaranteed to take a noticeable hit while he shares the court with Gobert.

PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Wendell Carter Jr. MORE than 2.5 Assists

Terry Rozier MORE than 28.5 PTS + ASTS

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!