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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/21 | Plenty of High-Scoring Action on this Friday Slate!
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/21 | Plenty of High-Scoring Action on this Friday Slate!
The first NBA Friday slate of the season arrives and it's a BIG ONE!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
Main Slate Rundown 📰
We’re back at it for a loaded Friday NBA slate that features 11 games and a ton of high totals! The lowest O/U on the day is 219 points so we’re likely going to see some big scores tonight. Now that every team has a game under their belt, we do at least have a faint idea of what rotations and minutes *should* look like but it’s obviously still a very small sample size. It’s best not to overreact too much to each team and player performance from one game but we’ll still want to utilize that information to a certain extent. Let’s get to it!
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG/SG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP
This is a strong game environment between two teams that should rank inside the top half of the league in pace moving forward. Haliburton’s 26 points (10-18 FG), seven assists, and four rebounds in 36 minutes played on Wednesday is the sort of stat line that he’s going to put up on a routine basis. He’s a double-double threat with points and assists as he averaged nearly 10 APG with Indiana last season. Thanks to strong peripherals and efficient scoring, Haliburton should provide a safe floor with a 50+ FP ceiling. Haliburton was a $9k+ player towards the end of last season so until his DFS salaries adjust, he’s going to stand out as a consistently strong play.
PG Kevin Porter Jr., HOU | DK: $7k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MEM | Cash & GPP
This is another game that we’ll want exposure to tonight given its slate-high 232 O/U and likely fast-paced atmosphere. KPJ is still underpriced considering how much he brings to the table. He had a 34% USG% in game one and he’s averaging 1.19 FPPM over his last 20 NBA games. There may be some blowout risk with Memphis favorites by seven points, but, as mentioned the other day, many of these young Rockets players need the experience, so they’re going to be out there on the court even in games that get out of hand.
SG/SF Devin Vassell, SAS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | @ IND | Cash & GPP
The shots just weren’t falling for Vassell on Wednesday night as he went 3-for-18 from the field, including 0-for-8 from beyond the arc. Better days are ahead for Vassell and those 18 shot attempts did lead to a strong 27.9% USG%. It’s also not as if Vassell completely bombed in the Spurs’ opening game. He scored nearly all of his fantasy points in the second half, finishing with just over 20 DKFP/FDFP. That game also turned into a blowout so Vassell’s 29 minutes played are below what he’s going to average this season. This is a good spot for him to bounce back and his ownership may be fairly low if people overreact too much to the lackluster performance from two days ago.
Also Consider:
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.1k, FD: $9.4k | @ HOU | GPP Preferred
SG Terry Rozier, CHA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.7k | vs. NOP | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP
SG/SF John Konchar, MEM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.1k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $9.2k, FD: $8.8k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
In his first NBA game action since 5/4/2021 on Wednesday, Zion stuffed the stat sheet with 25 points (11-22 FG), nine boards, three assists, and four steals in just 30 minutes played. His usage was at 32.7%, and he could have put up an even bigger performance if the game didn’t turn into a blowout. The Hornets are a team that we’ll probably want to attack with bigs quite a bit this year so feel free to lock in on Zion in this juicy match-up.
Zion Williamson in season opener! @Zionwilliamson
— Courtside Films (@CourtsideFilms)
10:10 AM • Oct 20, 2022
PF DeMar DeRozan, CHI | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.6k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP
When Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball are sidelined, as they will continue to be tonight, DeRozan is fully locked in as Chicago’s top option offensively and, as he showed with his nine assists on Wednesday, he can operate as a key facilitator as well. DeRozan had a mammoth 37.0% USG% across 36 minutes in game one, leading to a 64.5 DKFP performance against what was supposed to be a tough Miami Heat defense. He draws a better match-up against the Wizards tonight and, realistically, he should probably be a $10k+ player given his current role.
SF/SG Josh Hart, POR | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. PHX | Cash & GPP
Hart is just a player who does what needs to be done. His usage is not going to be high on this Trailblazers team, but, more often than not, he’s going to put up 10+ shots per game. Outside of that, for a 6’5” player, he’s an incredible rebounder and can contribute with assists, steals, and blocks. Hart looks poised to play huge minutes this season as well. He played 38 minutes on Wednesday and should average around 36 Min/G. Since he is just over an FPPM player, it’s clear to see why he should be a strong value play once again tonight.
Also Consider:
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.4k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred
PF Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP
PF/C Santi Aldama, MEM | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.3k | @ HOU | Cash & GPP
PF Jalen Smith, IND | DK: $5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred
PF/C Terry Taylor, IND | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP
It was a rather inefficient 5-for-13 night shooting for Vucevic on Wednesday but that didn’t hamper his fantasy output too much. Thanks to 17 boards, three blocks, and a pair of assists, Vuc still posted a 46.75 DKFP performance. He’s a double-double machine who also sees a decent +4.13% usage bump when Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball are off the court. Tonight’s game against the Wizards is also a notably better match-up than what he had on Wednesday against the Heat.
C Deandre Ayton, PHX | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | @ POR | Cash & GPP
Ayton got into a bit of foul trouble in the first half of their opening game. He still ended up seeing 30 minutes on the court and put up a very Ayton-like stat line: 18 points (8-11 FG), 10 rebounds, two assists, and one steal -- good for 36.5 DKFP. Pending foul trouble, Ayton is usually going to play closer to 34 minutes and he averaged around 1.12 FPPM so he’s a solid bargain at these current DFS salaries.
Also Consider:
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.3k | @ GSW | GPP Preferred
C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $7k, FD: $6.9k | @ CHA | GPP Preferred
C Bruno Fernando, HOU | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. MEM | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
DeMar DeRozan OVER 5.5 Assists | +125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units
I don’t expect DeRozan to constantly push for double-digit assist numbers, as he did on Wednesday with nine dimes. However, without Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball available, the ball is going to be in DeRozan’s hands at some point for nearly every possession he’s on the court. Given his role in the offense and big minutes, I like his chances of getting to 6+ assists against the Wizards tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton to Record a Double-Double: YES | -105 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
I was looking at the over on Haliburton’s assists (9.5 O/U, -115 DraftKings) as well but his double-double odds are a bit better. And if he records a double-double, he’s almost certainly going to do it with points and assists. Haliburton has averaged 9.3 APG over his last 20 starts and he recorded 10 and 11 assists in two games played against the Spurs last season. Given this game’s high projected point total and overall pace, let’s look for Haliburton to notch a points/assists double-double tonight.
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Julius Randle MORE than 1.5 3-Pt Made
Paolo Banchero MORE than 18.5 Points + Assists
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!