Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA Props w/ Shannon & Tyler!

NBA DFS Tips & Advice 💡

Welcome back for another thrilling NBA season, everyone! We are officially living in the “sweet spot” as sports fans with so many major sports now in full swing.

I know many of you are seasoned NBA DFS vets so feel free to skip this portion of the newsletter. For those of you who are either brand new to the sport or need a quick reminder on what’s important, here is a fairly brief rundown of what you NEED to know before getting serious about NBA DFS:

> Be available close to tip-off so you can monitor the latest news: Hey, life happens, and NBA DFS isn’t the most important thing. Sometimes you’re not going to be able to be around your computer or phone to make DFS lineup adjustments. But, in NBA DFS, you must try to at least keep up with breaking injury news, late scratches, and starting lineup changes, which are generally released closer to each scheduled tip-off. Since there are almost always going to be some later West Coast games, sometimes it may be beneficial to late swap some players in your lineups after the earlier games have already begun. The NBA is arguably the most hectic sport regarding the amount of impactful late-breaking news that comes out. If you don’t believe you’ll be available to keep up with things leading up to games tipping off, consider either taking the slate off or playing light with your bankroll. Otherwise, you essentially risk burning your hard-earned money. I also recommend having mobile push notifications turned on for starting NBA lineups. On the LineStar app, you can do this by going to “Settings > My Notifications > Show Notifications > Turn on NBA Confirmed Lineups Notifications.” You can also turn on notifications for projection updates and important news.

> Pay attention to Vegas spreads, point totals, and individual implied team totals: Pretty simple here -- you want to have exposure to players who will be involved in competitive, high-scoring games. The closer a specific game is, the higher the likelihood that starters on both ends will play heavy minutes. Also, teams with lofty implied point totals (generally around 115+ implied points) can often provide more favorable DFS targets. Games with large spreads could also signal the potential for extra minutes and run for some bench players in the event of a blowout. This can routinely be useful for finding value DFS plays.

> Factor in NBA pace statistics: A team’s pace of play is a very simple but important metric to pay attention to. A fast-paced team that operates quickly, doesn’t bleed the shot clock, and puts up a ton of shots will lead to game environments with more scoring/shots, assists, and rebounds -- which are all of the most important things related to NBA DFS scoring. We want exposure to players in fast-paced games. This info is also useful when factoring in a fast-paced team being negatively affected by a slow team and vice versa.

> Usage, Usage, Usage: The “usage rate” (or just “usage”) stat is defined as follows: (field goal attempts + possession-ending free throw attempts + turnovers) / possessions. Point blank, guys with high usage rates are going to put up the most shot attempts. This is usually going to be the single most important individual stat to pay attention to. Also, if a high-usage player is injured or off the court, it is crucial to see how that impacts the usage rates of his teammates. The “Usage Matrix” tool on LineStar can help you with all of the usage data you need to know or find out!

> Defensive Efficiency and DvP (Defense vs. Position): Some teams are just not going to be great defensively and/or struggle against certain positions. Be mindful of these match-ups and where you can take advantage!

> Using Projections Correctly: DFS projections aren’t everything, and sometimes I believe people rely on them a little too much. As our guy ZeroInDenver often says, “projections are not a crystal ball.” However, a ton of aggregate data goes into projections, which can help you with a general sense of how a player could perform in any game.

> Aiming for a Certain “x” Value Per Player Based on Salary: This is more important if you’re hand-building a single lineup, especially for cash game contests (double-ups, 50/50s, head-to-heads, triple-ups). This can be very “slate dependent,” but a general rule of thumb for NBA cash games on DraftKings is hunting for players who can safely return 5x to 6x fantasy points based on their DFS salary. For instance, if a player costs $6,000, you’ll want to feel confident that you’ll be getting 30-36 DKFP out of that player. Certain players can provide a safer floor for 5x-6x value (good for cash games) but don’t necessarily have 6x-8x “GPP winning upside” value. On the flip side, many players that do have 6x-8x upside often have a lower floor, so they’re more suitable for GPPs.

> Figure out a DFS process that works for you: No one will cash every day. If you play NBA DFS every day, there will be times when you completely bomb for several days in a row. It happens. Sometimes it just boils down to tough luck -- your stud player gets injured in the first quarter, a game that was expected to be close turns into a blowout, or a guy gets into early foul trouble so he rides the bench in the first half, etc. It is easy to get frustrated with NBA DFS so be sure to constantly be prepared to tweak and fine-tune your DFS process. What works for one person may not work for the next!

> Practice Smart Bankroll Management & Contest Selection: This is intrinsic when it comes to any DFS sport, but it’s worth mentioning briefly. Be smart with your bankroll. If you want to be profitable long-term, don’t go out and blow 50% of your bankroll on a single slate. I’d recommend a 5% to 10% daily spend but to each their own. Also, you don’t need to go out and max enter GPPs with 150 lineups to be successful. Figure out what contests work for you. I know some people strictly play GPPs, but I often recommend finding a good balance between GPPs and cash games in order to sustain long-term profitability.

Alright, I don’t want this intro to get too lengthy and I believe I’ve covered the core NBA DFS basics so let’s get into today’s slate!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

I’d recommend treading lightly on today’s season-opening two-game slate. We’ll have a loaded 12-game slate to dig into tomorrow so consider tonight’s doubleheader as a bit of an appetizer for what’s ahead! It’s also going to take at least a solid week or two before we have a more cemented idea of what starting lineups, rotations, and usage rates look like for each team this year so just exercise some additional caution early on in the season. Here’s to a great season for the LineStar crew!

Today’s Key Injuries

Lakers: J. Vanderbilt - OUT

Nuggets: J. Strawther - Questionable, J. Huff - Questionable, V. Cancar - OUT

Suns: D. Booker - Questionable (expected to play), B. Beal - Questionable (unlikely to play), D. Lee - OUT

Warriors: D. Green - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG/SG Devin Booker, PHX | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.6k | @ GSW

With Bradley Beal expected to miss the season opener, Devin Booker will be shouldering some heavy usage in tonight’s showdown with the Warriors. Booker is a little dinged up himself and is officially listed as questionable with a toe injury, but all news and indications point toward him suiting up tonight. Booker logged a 31% USG% last season while averaging over 20 shots per game and 27.8 PPG. The Suns are also expected to operate at a faster pace this season after ranking 20th in pace last year. Either way, it’s a pace upgrade against the Warriors who should continue to play fast and loose and ranked 2nd in pace last season. This game will be the more favorable DFS target based on the higher total (+6 points higher than LAL @ DEN) and closer spread (-3 vs. -5 spreads) -- though, both games will set up as entertaining, closely contested match-ups.

PG Chris Paul, GSW | DK: $5.6k, FD: $8k | vs. PHX

In general, the DraftKings NBA opening day pricing is considerably softer than FanDuel’s pricing and Chris Paul is perhaps the most extreme example of this. There is always some risk involved when it comes to projecting a player’s role with a new team, but at $5,600, I’m not sure how you can comfortably fade Chris Paul on DraftKings. With no Draymond Green (ankle/out) tonight, Paul will have an excellent chance to rack up double-digit assists while playing low-to-mid 30s minutes. In general, while his minutes may take a slight dive, he should play a very similar role with the Warriors as he did with the Suns last season -- and Paul was typically priced in the $7k range, occasionally $8k range, on DraftKings essentially all of last season. His $8k tag on FanDuel still keeps him in play, but largely due to this being a small two-game slate with limited options.

PG Jordan Goodwin, PHX | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.3k | @ GSW

With this game being the late tip-off, we’re not going to know either starting lineup before initial lock. If I had to guess, Eric Gordon (DK: $4.3k, FD: $4k) will start in place of the injured Bradley Beal. However, Goodwin is also a candidate to land in the starting lineup but, at the very least, he should receive some extra run off of the bench. Goodwin averaged well over a FPPM (fantasy point per minute) with the Wizards last season, and he’s particularly effective at providing upside in the steals/blocks categories, which are premium stats in NBA DFS. Goodwin averaged 16.3 MPG in three Suns’ preseason games and posted 6.7 PPG on 52.9% FG%, 4.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 3.4 STL+BLK/Gm. Outside of the steal/blocks, those aren’t gaudy numbers, but if you extrapolate those figures with (potentially) 20-24 minutes of playing time in mind, you could see how Goodwin could pay off his low-end salaries tonight.

Other Guards to Consider

PG/SG Steph Curry, GSW | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10k | vs. PHX

PG Jamaal Murray, DEN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. LAL

SG/SF Eric Gordon, PHX | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4k | @ GSW (Preferred if starting)

PG/SG Reggie Jackson, DEN | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4k | vs. LAL

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF Kevin Durant, PHX | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.8k | @ GSW

Here’s another example of some absurdly soft pricing by DraftKings. There’s no reason KD should be $8,400 after routinely dropping 50+ DKFP as a $9k-$10k player a season ago. The $10,800 salary on FanDuel is more appropriate, if not a tad steep. But, on a small slate, you play the studs who have a high floor, so KD is well within consideration on FanDuel as well. We can’t place too much emphasis on a minimal number of preseason performances, but Durant looks sharp in four preseason games where he averaged 16.5 MPG, 17.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, and shot 46.2% from three-point range. That’s over a FPPM with scoring alone and Durant should flirt with 40 minutes in tonight’s game while taking on added usage with Bradley Beal unavailable.

SF/SG Austin Reaves, LAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | @ DEN

We’ve focused heavily on the PHX @ DEN game up to this point, and rightfully so, but there are some guys in the early tip-off that we’ll want some exposure to as well. Reaves has SF eligibility on both sites and sets up well out of the mid-range. He put up some huge games down the stretch of the 2022-23 season and was a key piece of the Lakers’ offense in the playoffs. He also looked extremely sharp in three preseason games -- 22.5 MPG, 16.0 PPG, 62.5% FG%, 66.7% 3P%, 3.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, and 2.0 STL+BLK/Gm. If Reaves maintains that form and picks up where he left off last season with the high minutes distribution, he should provide value off of these $6k salaries.

SF/PF Taurean Prince, LAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.2k | @ DEN

Prince is set to start aside LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the Lakers’ frontcourt to begin the season. He may not hold the starting position for long, but with PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt (foot/out) on the shelf, Prince will see some decent run to begin the season. He won’t be anywhere close to an offensive focal point but he should pick up some moderate peripheral stats and he shot well in the preseason, averaging 9.3 PPG on 17.6 MPG, including shooting an efficient 45.8% from three-point range. With 25-30 minutes tonight, he’ll be a strong bet to return value on his low-end price tags.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.3k | @ DEN

SF/PF Michael Porter Jr., DEN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6k | vs. LAL

PF Aaron Gordon, DEN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.7k | vs. LAL

PF Andrew Wiggins, GSW | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. PHX (DK Preferred)

SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga, GSW | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. PHX

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $10k, FD: $11.5k | vs. LAL

I hate referring to any player as a “lock” but, on DraftKings, Jokic is about as close as it gets. His flat $10k price tag is going to be the lowest we’ll see all season and the floor that Jokic provides is virtually unmatched. He was 0.2 APG shy of averaging a triple-double last season and routinely posted mammoth performances against the Lakers. This should also be a significant pace upgrade -- last season, the Nuggets ranked 27th in pace while the Lakers played at the 4th fastest pace. That just means more shots, rebounds, and assist opportunities for the 2023 NBA Finals MVP. I’m sure he’d rather be back on his horse farm than on a basketball court, but Jokic is primed for another MVP-caliber season starting tonight.

C Kevon Looney, GSW | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.4k | vs. PHX

Looney receives a bit of a bump with no Draymond Green tonight and, while he doesn’t often handle massive minutes, he has averaged 1.16 FPPM across his last 20 NBA starts and should handle 25-30 minutes tonight. In only 16.6 MPG across four preseason games, Looney brought down 7.0 RPG and shot 69.2% from the field. With C Deandre Ayton no longer a member of the Phoenix Suns, Looney will also draw a favorable match-up in the paint.

Other Centers to Consider

C Anthony Davis, LAL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $11.2k | @ DEN (DK Preferred)

PF/C Dario Saric, GSW | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. PHX

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Austin Reaves MORE than 1.5 3-PT Made

Devin Booker MORE than 6.5 Assists

For PrizePicks players, make sure you take advantage of this Steph Curry free square tonight!

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!