Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

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NBA DFS & Props Shows w/ Shannon & Tyler!

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

Yesterday was a nice introduction to the new NBA season, but we really kick it up to the next gear tonight with a 12-game Wednesday slate on tap! It was a fairly busy off-season, and we’ve got plenty of well-known faces playing in new places so here’s a gentle reminder to be aware of early-season NBA volatility as rotations, minutes allocations, and usage distributions become established. Some teams will roll out a nearly identical lineup/rotation as last season, but many will not. We’ve also got one of the more exciting rookie debuts to look forward to as the Victor Wembanyama era begins in San Antonio! This should be a blast so let’s make it a profitable evening, shall we? Best of luck!

Today’s Key Injuries

Wizards: L. Shamet - OUT, J. Davis - OUT, A. Gill - OUT

Pacers: None

Hawks: W. Matthews - OUT

Hornets: C. Martin - OUT, F. Ntilikina - OUT, B. McGowens - Doubtful, M. Bridges - OUT (Suspension), J. Bouknight - OUT

Rockets: V. Oladipo - OUT, T. Eason - OUT

Magic: K. Harris - OUT

Celtics: None

Knicks: None

T-Wolves: J. McDaniels - OUT

Raptors: C. Koloko - OUT

Cavs: D. Garland - Questionable (expected to play), J. Allen - OUT, D. Wade - Doubtful, R. Rubio - OUT

Nets: D. Whitehead - OUT

Pistons: M. Morris - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - OUT, I. Livers - OUT

Heat: J. Richardson - OUT, H. Highsmith - OUT

Pelicans: J. Alvarado - OUT, N. Marshall - OUT, T. Murphy III - OUT

Grizzlies: J. Morant - OUT (suspension), S. Aldama - OUT, S. Adams - OUT (for season), B. Clarke - OUT

Thunder: K. Williams - OUT, Jay. Williams - OUT

Bulls: L. Ball - OUT

Kings: C. Duarte - Questionable, T. Lyles - OUT

Jazz: None

Mavs: L. Doncic - Questionable, D. Powell - Probable, J. Hardy - Probable

Spurs: Z. Collins - Questionable, D. Graham - OUT

Trailblazers: I. Wainwright - OUT

Clippers: B. Hyland - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.8k | @ UTA

It’s a loaded slate, but when mulling over some of the best game environments to target, this Kings/Jazz clash should be toward the top of the list. The 233.5 over/under and two-point spread (SAC -2) is among the highest/closest game total/spread combinations on the slate. Both of these teams ranked inside the top 12 in pace a season ago, and in four 2022-23 match-ups between Sacramento and Utah, the games averaged 241.3 PPG. Fox posted a strong 30.1% USG% last season while hoisting 23.2 shot attempts per game. He’s put up at least 54.3 DKFP in three of his last four meetings with Utah and has a great chance to return value out of the upper-$8k range on both sites.

SG/SF Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. NOP

The Grizzlies are arguably the most depleted team in the league at the start of this season. Ja Morant is serving a 25-game suspension, Steven Adams is out for the season following knee surgery, Brandon Clarke is out indefinitely due to an Achilles injury, and Santi Aldama will be sidelined tonight due to an ankle injury. The Ja Morant suspension is clearly the most impactful factor, and that will lead to Desmond Bane taking on a significant amount of usage this evening. Expect Bane to hoist 20-30 shots tonight and provide a strong floor/ceiling combination to DFS lineups. His SG/SF eligibility on both sites also opens up some nice flexibility at two of the less desirable roster positions.

PG Tyus Jones, WAS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | @ IND

We saw what sort of results Tyus Jones could put up when he filled in as an intermittent starter with the Grizzlies last season. He rarely put up a dud and displayed a fantasy point ceiling well into the 50+ range. Jones will begin his tenure with the Wizards as the starting point guard and is thus too cheap on both sites today -- Jones was routinely pinned with $7k+ salaries as the Memphis starting PG last season. Jones draws an excellent match-up with the Pacers who ranked 5th in pace last season and allowed the 2nd most FPPG to primary ball handlers. Expect Jones to be chalky on the first huge slate of the new season, but he simply sets up as a rock-solid play tonight.

Other Guards to Consider

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11k, FD: $11.6k | @ SAS (Note: Luka is currently questionable)

PG LaMelo Ball, CHA | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. ATL

PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.4k | vs. WAS

SG/SF Zach LaVine, CHI | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.8k | vs. OKC

PG Russell Westbrook, LAC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.8k | vs. POR

PG/SG Jrue Holiday, BOS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.5k | @ NYK

PG/SG Scoot Henderson, POR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | @ LAC

PG/SG Dennis Schroeder, TOR | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.3k | vs. MIN

PG/SG Coby White, CHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.9k | vs. OKC

SG/SF Talen Horton-Tucker, IND | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. SAC

SG Duncan Robinson, MIA | DK: $3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. DET

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $8.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. DAL

I mean, come on, we couldn’t not give Wemby a spotlighted segment to start the season, right? If you’ve played NBA DFS for any significant amount of time, you’re aware of Coach Popovic’s antics and his knack for throwing a wrench into things when it comes to Spurs players. This can be especially apparent when it comes to rookies. But Victor Wembanyama is no typical rookie. That said, we can lean on the somewhat conservative side and say that Wemby will see roughly 28-30 minutes of playing time tonight. While Wembanyama is not cheap, that could still be enough minutes for him to make sense as a DFS play tonight. If we look at Wemby’s four pre-season games where he averaged 20.9 Min/gm, here are his statistical averages: 19.3 PPG, 1.8 3PM/gm, 4.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, and 3.8 BLK+STL/gm. Increase all of those averages by roughly 50%, and you can see a fairly clear pathway for Wemby to hit value tonight. His blocks alone will provide a nice chunk of DFS scoring. There’s no question that he’s going to be a $10k+ player once he begins to handle mid-30s minutes, and, who knows, maybe Coach Pop fully unleashes him in game one -- not likely, but possible. The Spurs open their season at home, and everyone in the arena will be there to see Wembanyama’s NBA debut. When was the last time Luka Doncic was nearly an afterthought in a game?

PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. NOP

We’ve already discussed the lack of depth for the Grizzlies in the Desmond Bane spotlight above. Where they are really hurting is in the frontcourt with three bigs (Adams, Clarke, Aldama) on the shelf to begin the season. Jaren Jackson Jr. has seen the largest usage boost and FPPG boost with those three players (and Morant) sidelined over the last two seasons. DraftKings has him priced criminally low at $6,600, but JJJ remains firmly in play on FanDuel as well. Jackson’s last meeting against the Pelicans resulted in a monstrous 65.75 DKFP/67 FDFP performance. Unless he runs into foul trouble or gets banged up, it’s hard to imagine Jackson posting a dud tonight.

PF/C Obi Toppin, IND | DK: $3k, FD: $5.1k | vs. WAS

I’m not surprising anyone with this pick, especially those who play primarily on DraftKings. But I construct these newsletters as if it is the first exposure to a particular NBA slate that folks happen to read during the day -- so, for those people (especially DK players), don’t overlook this play. Obi Toppin has always been a strong FPPM player, but he’s been stuck in a limited role off of the bench for the majority of his first three years in the league, all with the Knicks. Barring any surprises, Toppin will now step into a key role as the Pacers’ starting power forward and should benefit from Indiana’s fast-paced style of play. As I’ve said before, I hate referring to any player as a “lock” but Toppin is as close as it gets on DraftKings -- just differentiate elsewhere if you’re concerned about ownership. He’s simply the most likely candidate to result as an optimal play tonight (on DK). His $5,100 tag on FanDuel also keeps him firmly in play as he should push for 6x value at that salary.

Other Forwards to Consider

SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.4k | vs. POR

SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. DET (DK Preferred)

SF/SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ MEM

PF/C Chet Holmgren, OKC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | @ CHI

PF/C Evan Mobley, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | @ BKN

SF/PG Jeremy Sochan, SAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. DAL

SF Bilal Coulibaly, WAS | DK: $4k, FD: $4.6k | @ IND

SF Ziaire Williams, MEM | DK: $4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. NOP

Centers to Consider 🏀

C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8k | vs. OKC

I wouldn’t view spending up on center as a top priority today, so we’ll float toward the mid-range and spotlight Bulls’ center Nikola Vucevic. Vuc is not immune to the occasional dud but, more often than not, he’s going to provide you with a strong floor given his solid offensive involvement (17.6 PPG, 21.9% USG% last season) and rebounding ability (11.0 RPG last season). If the Thunder utilize Chet Holmgren as their primary center, Vuc should be able to out-physical the slender 7’2” 195-lb Holmgren who is making his NBA debut tonight. And while Holmgren wasn’t factored into this from last season, the Thunder did allow the most opponent rebounds per game last year.

C Walker Kessler, UTA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. SAC

I don’t love having to isolate FanDuel players by pointing out so many of these notable DraftKings misprices, but until DK salaries adjust, it’s sort of a necessary evil. Once Walker Kessler stepped into a starting role last season, as he will begin with this season, he displayed huge FPPM upside and routinely dropped 40 to 50+ DKFP performances. He has averaged a double-double over his last 20 NBA starts to go along with 3.1 STL+BLK/gm and 1.21 FPPM. This Utah/Sacramento match-up is one of the better DFS environments on the slate and Kessler just shouldn’t be priced at $5,600 on DraftKings. Kessler is still in play at $7,400 on FanDuel, but not a priority.

Other Centers to Consider

C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.8k | @ UTA

C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. DET

PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.1k | @ NYK

C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.9k | @ ORL

C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.9k | @ MEM

C Nic Claxton, BKN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.6k | vs. CLE (DK Preferred)

C Daniel Gafford, WAS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k | @ IND

C Damian Jones, CLE | DK: $3k, FD: $3.8k | @ BKN

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ausar Thompson MORE than 15.5 Points + Rebounds

Ziaire Williams MORE than 2.5 Rebounds

PrizePicks has a a discounted Wemby prop posted today as well!

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!