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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/26 | Breaking Down Today's Hefty 10-Game Slate
Ten games worth of NBA action awaits us tonight! We'll dive into the best DFS plays and props to target on this loaded slate.
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Aaaaand we’re back on the big slate grind! A hefty 10-game slate is on the board today, so we’ve got plenty of ways to go about attacking this one. Here is a friendly reminder that staying on top of injury news close to tip-off remains a huge advantage. Yesterday it was announced that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had previously been ruled out for OKC, would actually suit up and face no minutes restrictions. SGA absolutely went off and posted 33 points, eight assists, five rebounds, three steals, and three blocks. His huge 60+ FP performance earned him a spot in the optimal lineup so good on you if you took the risk and late swapped him into some lineups!
Today’s key injury news as of this afternoon:
(Not including players who have yet to play this season unless they have a chance to make their season debut)
ORL: PG/SG Jalen Suggs (OUT)
CLE: PG Darius Garland (OUT)
PHI: De’Anthony Melton (questionable)
TOR: PG/SF Scottie Barnes (questionable), SF/PF Otto Porter Jr. (DOUBTFUL)
CHA: SG Terry Rozier (OUT), SG/SF Cody Martin (DOUBTFUL)
BKN: PF/C Markieff Morris (OUT)
IND: C Myles Turner (questionable)
SAS: SF/SG Devin Vassell (OUT)
MIN: SF/PF Kyle Anderson (OUT), PG/SG Austin Rivers (DOUBTFUL)
HOU: C Alperen Sengun (OUT), SF/PF Jae’Sean Tate (questionable), C Bruno Fernando (OUT)
LAL: SF/PF LeBron James (probable), PF/C Anthony Davis (probable), PG Russell Westbrook (OUT)
DEN: SF/PF Michael Porter Jr. (OUT), PF/C Jeff Green (probable)
POR: SF/PF Justice Winslow (questionable)
Alright, let’s dive in!
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. ORL | Cash & GPP
Mitchell leads all guards on the slate with a 36.2% USG%, leading to 33.3 PPG. His peripherals have been excellent as well: 7.0 APG, 5.3 RPG, 2.3 STL+BLK/G, and he’s averaging 8.7 3PA/G as well. All-in-all, Mitchell has posted a 50+ FP performance in all three games this season. Today’s game with the Magic represents a fairly ‘so-so’ match-up. This shouldn’t be a very fast-paced game (CLE - 22nd in pace, ORL - 21st in pace) and it carries the second-lowest total on the slate. The Cavs are also heavy -8.5 favorites, so there are some moderate blowout concerns. With that said, Mitchell’s usage and overall role in this offense will make him a high-end guard play that we’ll want to keep in mind for all contest formats today.
PG Dennis Smith Jr., CHA | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | @ NYK | Cash & GPP
DSJ will run the show again today, with Terry Rozier unlikely to suit up. Smith helped lead the Hornets to a surprising 126-109 win over the Hawks in their last game where he posted a 37.0 DKFP performance in 34 minutes played. Despite being +7.5 road underdogs against the Knicks, Smith projects as a strong mid-range target, and both of these teams have ranked inside the top 10 in pace this season.
PG Tre Jones, SAS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.3k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP
The Spurs and the Timberwolves face off for the second time in three days. Tre Jones’ DFS prices are creeping up, but he remains a strong value play as the Spurs’ starting PG. Despite shooting an inefficient 3-for-10 from the field (8 points) against MIN on Monday, Jones kicked in eight assists, seven rebounds, and three steals in 30 minutes, earning him 34.75 DKFP. Jones could see a decent usage bump with Devin Vassell (24.0% USG%) ruled out, and there should be ample possessions in this game -- the T-Wolves rank 4th in pace, and the Spurs rank 6th in pace thus far this season.
Also Consider:
PG/SG James Harden, PHI | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.8k | @ TOR | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.6k | @ CHI | GPP Preferred
PG Kevin Porter Jr., HOU | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.7k | @ UTA | Cash & GPP
PG D’Angelo Russell, MIN | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. SAS | GPP Preferred
PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Jaylen Nowell, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. SAS | Cash & GPP
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.6k | vs. BKN | Cash & GPP
When you’re as good as Giannis, there is no such thing as a bad match-up. However, there are certain spots where he could absolutely smash, and this could be one of those games. Brooklyn has been a hot mess defensively through three games. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, which is a bad omen when you have to face off with a player like Giannis. Through two games, The Greek Freak is averaging an absurd 1.93 DKFPPM and he needed just under 28 minutes of court time to post up a 64.0 DKFP performance against the Rockets in his last game. He is currently commanding a 35.1% USG% while shooting 70.5% from the field. We know his rebounds are always going to be there (12.5 RPG), he continues to be a strong facilitator as well (5.5 APG), and he’s usually good for (at least) a couple of steals/blocks per game. This game carries a close four-point spread in favor of the Bucks so we could get a full 36+ minutes worth of Giannis tonight.
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.7k | @ DEN | Cash & GPP
The sputtering Lakers are off to an 0-3 start to the season, but you can hardly place any blame on LeBron. In 36.5 Min/G, LeBron is averaging 27.3 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 7.3 APG, and 2.3 STL+BLK/G on a 30.6% USG%. Russell Westbrook is not expected to play tonight so that means LeBron will take on more responsibility as a primary ball handler. And while Westbrook has been terrible early on this season, he does leave behind a 22.5% USG% along with some assists and rebounds that other Lakers will have to pick up. If the Lakers (+5) manage to pick up their first win tonight, it’s going to be thanks to a HARD carry from LeBron.
SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | vs. HOU | GPP Preferred
Markkanen burned quite a few folks, myself included, with his dud performance on Monday. He still put up his second-most shot attempts of the season with 19 FGA, and he played 30+ minutes. Perhaps the down game on Monday could be blamed on the Jazz being on the second leg of a B2B following a game that went into OT (Markkanen played 39 minutes). Regardless, Markkanen and the Jazz should rebound in their second game against a Houston team that does not rate out well defensively and plays at a fairly fast pace. Utah ranks third on this slate with a 120.3 implied point total, and I wouldn’t be too worried about going back to Markkanen in this spot.
Also Consider:
PF Keldon Johnson, SAS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP
SF/PF Kelly Oubre Jr., CHA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.2k | @ NYK | GPP Preferred
SF/SG Josh Hart, POR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred
PF/C Jarred Vanderbilt, UTA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
SF Lonnie Walker Jr., LAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.2k | @ DEN | GPP Preferred
*SF/SG Josh Richardson, SAS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.6k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP
*If starting for Devin Vassell
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. IND | Cash & GPP
If you’re gunning for a high-floor center play but don’t want to break the bank on guys like Jokic or Embiid, the Vucevic may be one of the better options to target on the slate. The Bulls rank second on the slate with a 121 implied point total. DeMar DeRozan (29.0% USG%) and Zach LaVine (28.3% USG%) are the clear top two offensive options, but Vucevic has carried a respectable 25.3% USG% as well. He is also going to crash the boards and has averaged 13.0 RPG through four games this season. The Pacers rank 25th in defensive efficiency and 24th in FG% so chalk Vucevic up as a near-automatic double-double candidate tonight.
C Jakob Poeltl, SAS | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP
Poeltl averages around 1.20 FPPM, and at these DFS salaries, he will often push for 6x value whenever he plays 30+ minutes. There’s a decent chance that the absence of Devin Vassell from the lineup tonight opens up a few extra minutes for Peoltl, who is averaging a double-double this season (15.5 PPG, 10.8 RPG). It’s not an ideal match-up with Rudy Gobert manning the paint for Minnesota, but the Spurs will need Poeltl’s size if they hope to compete with Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns in the T-Wolves frontcourt.
Also Consider:
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11k | vs. LAL | GPP Preferred
PF/C John Collins, ATL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.6k | @ DET | GPP Preferred
PF/C Jabari Smith Jr., HOU | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.3k | @ UTA | GPP Preferred
PF/C Kelly Olynyk, UTA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.3k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 12.5 Rebounds | -128 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units
This is a big number for rebounds, but Giannis hauled in 13 rebounds against Embiid and the 76ers in his first game and brought down 12 boards in his last game against Houston while playing only 28 minutes. In what is expected to be a close game, Giannis should push for 36 minutes tonight. If that is the case, he should cash the over on the prop with relative ease. Brooklyn owns the second-lowest rebounding rate in the NBA and Giannis is likely going just to wreak havoc on this much-maligned Nets team tonight.
LeBron James to Record a Triple-Double: Yes | +650 (DraftKings) | 0.5 Units
We’re not going to throw a big bet at this prop, but LeBron will have to do it all tonight with Westbrook sidelined. His assist prop is set at 7.5, and his rebound prop sits at 8.5, and it’s essentially an even money bet to hit the over on either prop. We know he’s going to put up the points, so if he can grab a couple of extra assists and rebound over expectations, then he’ll bag himself a triple-double tonight. At a 6.5/1 payout, I’ll take those odds. The Lakers are +5 underdogs in Denver tonight so Vegas isn’t expecting a blowout here. With that in mind, I also don’t mind throwing a small wager on LeBron to record a triple-double AND the Lakers to win (+1100 on PointsBet).
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Nikola Vucevic MORE than 11.0 Rebounds
Nikola Jokic MORE than 8.0 Assists
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!