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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/27 | A Four-Game Slate Loaded With Stars in the Backcourt
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/27 | A Four-Game Slate Loaded With Stars in the Backcourt
There is no shortage of different DFS action to get involved with today so let's get a look at what NBA offers up this evening.
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
It’s a “pick your poison” kinda day for us sports fans. We’ve got four games worth of NBA action, what could be an entertaining Thursday NFL game, a trio of college football games, and a loaded NHL slate to boot. Oh, and the World Series starts tomorrow! Gotta love it.
Here is a rundown of today’s key NBA injuries:
DAL: SG/SF Tim Hardaway Jr. - Questionable
BKN: SG Joe Harris - OUT, PF/C Markieff Morris - OUT
LAC: SG Paul George - questionable, SF Kawhi Leonard - OUT, PF Marcus Morris Sr. - OUT
OKC: PG/SG Josh Giddey - OUT
GSW - SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo - OUT
MEM: SG/SF John Konchar - questionable
This is not as hectic of a slate as yesterday so let’s focus up and tackle this little four-gamer!
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.3k | vs. LAC | Cash & GPP
This may be a small slate, but it is filled to the brim with elite guards, specifically point guard eligible players. We’re splitting hairs with a lot of these guys but we’ll start with SGA who is coming off of a massive 63.25 DKFP performance against this same Clippers team. Perhaps it’s a stretch to hope for a repeat performance out of SGA since the six combined steals and blocks on Tuesday were an outlier. However, he is a player who routinely provides STL/BLK upside and he’s 2.9 STL+BLK/G over his last 20 starts. SGA receives a noticeable usage bump with Josh Giddey off of the floor and Giddey will of course be missing another game tonight. On FanDuel, I would maybe suggest finding the extra $300 in salary to get up to Ja Morant (DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.6k) but on DraftKings, SGA just barely gets an edge on a projected ‘fantasy point per dollar’ basis. However, while it wasn’t very apparent on Monday, do keep in mind that the return of Dillon Brooks is going to eat into Morant’s ceiling in many games.
PG/SG Tre Mann, OKC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.4k | vs. LAC | Cash & GPP
We’ll stick with the Thunder backcourt and look to roll out Tre Mann once again. Mann will draw the start in place of Giddey, and, in that starting role, he put up a career-high 24 FGA on Tuesday -- ultimately coming away with 25 points, four assists, four rebounds, and a pair of steal across 36 minutes. We’re all but forced to look in the direction of a player any time they have a chance to chuck up 20+ shots and play big minutes while being priced in the $5k range.
PG John Wall, LAC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.3k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred
Through three games, Wall’s most minutes (25) came in the season-opening game against the Lakers. In the other two games, he played 21 and 20 minutes. He has scored no fewer than 24.25 DKFP in any of his three games played, so if Wall happens to handle 25 minutes tonight, he could push for 6x value. He’s handling a huge 32.6% USG% with the Clippers’ second unit and averaging 1.15 FPPM. He has at least three assists and a steal in every game this season, and eventually, he will see a bump to his minutes as he works his way back from a lengthy absence from live NBA game action. Consider him to be a GPP pivot off of the much higher-owned Tre Mann tonight.
Also Consider:
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12k, FD: $12k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
PG Ja Morant, MEM | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.6k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. MEM | Cash & GPP
PG Kyle Lowry, MIA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.1k | @ GSW | GPP/FanDuel Preferred
*PG/SG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5k | @ BKN | Cash & GPP
SG Aaron Wiggins, OKC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. LAC | GPP Preferred
*Particularly if Tim Hardaway Jr. is ruled out again.
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF Andrew Wiggins, GSW | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.9k | vs. MIA | Cash & GPP
This is a major pace-down spot for the Warriors, who lead the NBA in pace, going up against the Heat, who rank 27th in pace. Regardless, Wiggins has shown an excellent floor in every game this season. His 22.5% USG% is not spectacular, but thanks to the fast-paced Warriors offense, that has led to 16.8 FGA/G, including 7.0 3PA/G. Wiggins’ peripherals have also been great: 6.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, 3.3 STL+BLK/G. His rebounds, steals, and blocks lead the team this season and, in what should be a competitive game (GSW -6), Wiggins could play around 35 minutes tonight.
SF/PF Keegan Murray, SAC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. MEM | Cash & GPP
After impressing in his two games off the bench (35.4 Min/G, 17.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.5 STL+BLK/G), Murray, the No. 4 overall pick in this year’s draft, is set to move into the starting lineup. It will be interesting to see how well he meshes with the starting lineup, but he’s going to put up some threes after averaging 8.0 3PA in his two games and shooting 43.8% from deep. Pending any sort of blowout or foul trouble, we can expect Murray to handle a minutes workload in the mid-30s.
PF/C Santi Aldama, MEM | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.3k | @ SAC | Cash & GPP
Aldama has played at least 31 minutes and scored at least 27.0 DKFP in 3-of-4 games. The only game where he didn’t hit those minutes/DKFP output was in the 10/22 41-point blowout loss to Dallas where Aldama also got into early foul trouble. The Grizzlies are -2.5 road favorites tonight in a game with a slate-high 236.5 O/U. Considering he’s been close to an FPPM-type player, given his normal minutes, Aldama should provide a night return on these low salaries tonight.
Also Consider:
PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.1k | @ GSW | GPP Preferred
SF Caleb Martin, MIA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.1k | @ GSW | GPP/FanDuel Preferred
PF/C Darius Bazley, OKC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. LAC | GPP/DraftKings Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Domantis Sabonis, SAC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | vs. MEM | Cash & GPP
Had Sabonis played his normal minutes in his last game, he likely would have posted up a 60+ FP performance. Sabonis is averaging 14.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 5.3 APG, and 2.3 STL+BLK/G in 30 Min/G. His 21.2% USG% may take a slight hit with Keegan Murray entering the starting lineup, but Sabonis’ rebounding numbers should begin to rise. He has the highest ceiling of any center-eligible player on the slate.
C Ivica Zubac, LAC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.5k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred
The Thunder have been toasted by opposing centers this season, and Zubac certainly added to that trend on Tuesday when he put up 10 points, 14 rebounds, two assists, and SEVEN blocks across 35 minutes. If Zubac was guaranteed 35 minutes tonight, he’d be a smash play even with his salaries moving into the mid-$6k range. Unfortunately, his minutes tend to be erratic on a night-to-night basis. He almost certainly benefited from Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both being out last game. Kawhi will be out again, but George is looking likely to suit up. At the very least, keep Zubac on the radar for GPPs.
Also Consider:
PF/C Christian Wood, DAL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
PF/C Draymond Green, GSW | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.1k | vs. MIA | GPP Preferred
C Steven Adams, MEM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.5k | @ SAC | GPP Preferred
C Mike Muscala, OKC | DK: $4k, FD: $4k | vs. LAC | Cash & GPP
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Keegan Murray OVER 2.5 Three-Pointers Made | -105 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units
The Kings seem to be content with letting their young rookie shoot… and why wouldn’t they be? Murray shot a whopping 70% from three in the preseason, and so far, he has connected on 7-of-16 3PA (43.8%) in two games this season. Now that he is set to make his first official start, he should continue to handle huge minutes while letting it fly from beyond the arc.
Luka Doncic OVER 15.5 Assists + Rebounds | -140 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
Doncic has had AST+REB totals of 15, 17, and 18 this season. I believe we can feel pretty comfortable about hitting over 15.5 AST+REB in this game against the Nets. The Nets are on the second leg of a back-to-back after getting bullied by Giannis last night. They continue to rank last in defensive efficiency and 29th in rebounding%. Recently, they’ve allowed rebound totals of seven (Jrue Holiday), eight (Ja Morant), and seven (Fred VanVleet) to opposing PGs. Luka is easily a better rebounder than all three of those guys and he should continue to dish out around 7-10 assists.
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Keegan Murray MORE than 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Luka Doncic MORE than 15.5 Rebounds + Assists
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!