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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/27 | Preparing for a Friday Frenzy!
Top DFS Plays & Props for Friday's NBA Action!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
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DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
We’re back in the saddle in preparation for the first big Friday NBA slate of the season! A loaded 11-game set hits the schedule today, so wrap up things at work, grab your favorite beverage, and get dialed in for a full evening of NBA action! Best of luck!
Today’s Key Injuries:
Nuggets: J. Huff - OUT, V. Cancar - OUT
Grizzlies: J. Morant - OUT (suspension), S. Aldama - OUT, L. Kennard - OUT, S. Adams - OUT, B. Clarke - OUT
Pistons: M. Morris - OUT, I. Livers - OUT, B. Bogdanovic - OUT
Hornets: C. Martin - OUT, M. Bridges - OUT (suspension), F. Ntilikina - OUT, J. Bouknight - OUT, B. McGowens - Questionable
Heat: C. Martin - Probable, J. Richardson - OUT, H. Highsmith - OUT, D. Robinson - Probable, J. Jaquez Jr. - Probable
Celtics: None
Knicks: None
Hawks: W. Matthews - OUT
Thunder: K. Williams - OUT, Jay. Williams - OUT
Cavs: D. Garland - Questionable, J. Allen - OUT, R. Rubio - OUT, D. Wade - Questionable
Rockets: J. Landale - OUT, V. Oladipo - OUT, T. Eason - OUT, N. Hinton - OUT
Spurs: D. Graham - OUT
Raptors: C. Koloko - OUT
Bulls: L. Ball - OUT
Nets: N. Claxton - OUT, C. Johnson - Questionable, D. Whitehead - OUT
Mavs: None
Clippers: B. Hyland - Questionable, T. Mann - OUT, B. Boston Jr. - OUT
Jazz: None
Warriors: D. Green - OUT
Kings: T. Lyles - OUT
Magic: K. Harris - OUT
Trailblazers: A. Simons - Questionable, I. Wainwright - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Top DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Plays
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG/SG Donovan Mitchell, CLE | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | vs. OKC
As we get prepared to see most teams play their second games of the new season, it’s important not to place too much stock into a one-game sample size. That said, it’s nice to see star players like Donovan Mitchell pick up where they left off in the 2022-23 season. In the Cavs season-opener, Spida Mitchell dropped 54.25 DKFP/57 FDFP despite posting a 26.4% USG% -- that’s still a strong usage rate, but down from his 31.0% USG% last season. His four steals against Brooklyn helped to elevate his fantasy point totals, but Mitchell averaged 1.5 STL/gm a season ago, so it wasn’t some huge outlier performance. 20+ shot attempts a night with strong guard peripheral stats can be expected of Mitchell most nights, and the Cavs get a decent pace upgrade against the Thunder in this match-up. Darius Garland (hamstring), who played the season opener, is questionable to suit up tonight on the first leg of a back-to-back while C Jarrett Allen is out once again. With Garland and Allen off the court over the last two seasons, Mitchell has seen a +4.0% usage boost and +7.7 FPPG (per 48 min) increase.
SG/SF Zach LaVine, CHI | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7k | vs. TOR
LaVine was a popular target on Tuesday’s slate, but a poor shooting night (4-16 FGM-FGA, 2-9 3PM-3PA) and limited minutes (25) due to a blowout led to a disappointing fantasy score (24.5 DKFP/21.3 FDFP). It’s worth noting that LaVine did post a massive 37.8% USG% when he was on the court which, for reference, is a touch higher than Luka Doncic’s opening night USG% of 37.4%. Now, we’re not comparing the skill sets of those two players but a usage rate in the mid-30s is often going to lead to some huge fantasy scores. LaVine can be a volatile DFS option but he often displays 50+ FP upside when he gets the hot hand and he should go under-owned tonight as people chase after players who looked sharper in their season opener. We’ll look to buy low on LaVine in GPPs at his $7k/$7.1k DFS salaries.
PG/SF Jeremy Sochan, SAS | DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k | vs. HOU
Sochan is running point in the San Antonio starting lineup this season, and he checked in at second for the Spurs in usage in their opener, behind only Victor Wembanyama. Sochan shot only 33% from the field, but he tacked on solid peripherals with seven boards, five assists, and a steal. The Spurs also played at the third fastest pace, and they’ll take on an easier match-up against the Rockets, who are bottom-five in defensive efficiency. Sochan will be worth some DFS shares until his salaries catch up to his new role in the offense.
Other Guards to Consider
PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $11.4k, FD: $12.3k | vs. BKN
PG/SG Steph Curry, GSW | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | @ SAC
SG Cade Cunningham, DET | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.7k | @ CHA
SG Desmond Bane, MEM | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9k | vs. DEN
PG Chris Paul, GSW | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k | @ SAC (DK Preferred)
PG/SG Scoot Henderson, POR | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. ORL (Boost if A. Simons sits)
PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon, POR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. ORL (Boost if A. Simons sits)
SG Malik Monk, SAC | DK: $5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. GSW
SG/SF Caris LeVert, CLE | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | vs. OKC (Boost if D. Garland sits)
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF/PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.8k | @ BOS
Butler is in his emotional era, and tonight’s game should certainly have an emotional feel to it, being a 2023 Eastern Conference Finals rematch between the Heat and Celtics. Butler was dominant in that series and scored 50+ FP in five of seven games. Of course, playing near or over 40 minutes/gm helped elevate Butler’s DFS results and we shouldn’t expect more than mid-30s minutes out of him tonight. Miami is a sizable +8.5 point underdog tonight so if they hope to win, Butler is going to need to shoulder the load and put up a “playoff Jimmy” sort of performance.
SF/PG Scottie Barnes, TOR | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k | @ CHI
Barnes posted a team-leading 26.5% USG% in the opener while seeing 37 minutes of court time and racking up 47.0 DKFP/51.1 FDFP. Like many other players in their first taste of regular season action, Barnes was a bit rusty with his shot, shooting 6-16 from the field (37.5% FG%) but he more than made up for it with an astounding five blocks and two steals to go along with eight boards and five assists. Those are some next-level peripheral stats that we can’t count on night in and night out. That said, Barnes is usually a solid stat sheet stuffer and averaged 6.6 RPG, 4.8 APG, and 1.9 STL + BLK/gm last season. If he’s going to continue playing upper-30s minutes and post similar usage to game one, then he’ll regularly be a favorable DFS target.
PF Jalen Johnson, ATL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.8k | vs. NYK
Johnson has always been a strong FPPM producer and you can scroll through his game logs from last season to see plenty of 20-30+ FP results in games where he only played around 18-20 minutes. Johnson is still coming off of the bench this season, but he logged 29 minutes in the opener against the Hornets, scoring 21 points on 9-13 shooting and ending the night with 39.25 DKFP/41.4 FDFP. If he continues to operate as the Hawks’ sixth man and handles close to 30 minutes/gm, his DFS salaries will not be this low for long.
Other Forwards to Consider
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.2k | vs. MIA
SF/PF Kawhi Leonard, LAC | DK: $8.9k, FD: $8.5k | @ UTA
PF/C Julius Randle, NYK | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.8k | @ ATL
PF/C Victor Wembanyama, SAS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.5k | vs. HOU
PF/C PJ Washington, CHA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DET
SF/PF Michael Porter Jr. DEN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.9k | @ DEN (DK Preferred)
PF/C Isaiah Stewart, DET | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.2k | @ CHA
SF/PF Grant Williams, DAL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. BKN
PF/C Dario Saric, GSW | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.2k | @ SAC
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12k | @ MEM
That $10k opening night DraftKings price tag was nice while it lasted, but Jokic is now priced more appropriately on both sites. He still lands firmly on the DFS radar as a premium spend up and, currently, he only projects for 5-10% ownership on tonight’s slate. Jokic opened the season with one of many triple-doubles to come this season and he simply provides one of the highest floors in NBA DFS. Expect him to thrive in a match-up against a Grizzlies frontcourt that will be without defensive stud Steven Adams for this entire season.
C Day’Ron Sharpe, BKN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k | @ DAL
Perhaps the most obvious value of the night will be Day’Ron Sharpe, who is in line for a spot start with Nets’ center Nic Claxton ruled out for this evening’s game due to an ankle injury. Sharpe averaged over a FPPM last season and should be in line for 25-30 minutes of court time tonight. It’s not a perfect match-up against a Dallas defense that is typically somewhat stingy against opposing centers, but it’s going to be tough for Sharpe to flop based on his low-end DFS salaries and expected workload.
Other Centers to Consider
C Domantas Sabonis, SAC | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.9k | vs. GSW
PF/C Kristaps Porzingis, BOS | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.6k | vs. MIA
C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $7k, FD: $7.4k | @ SAS
C Mark Williams, CHA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DET (DK Preferred)
C Jalen Duren, DET | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.9k | @ CHA (DK Preferred)
PF/C Kevin Love, MIA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.7k | @ BOS
PF/C Trendon Watford, BKN | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | @ DAL (Assuming he works as the backup center for BKN)
PrizePicks NBA Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Terry Rozier MORE than 4.5 Assists
Jalen Duren MORE than 23.0 Points + Rebounds
PrizePicks has a a discounted Tatum prop posted today as well!
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!