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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/28 | Running Through Tonight's Huge Slate
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/28 | Running Through Tonight's Huge Slate
It's a busy Friday in the NBA with no shortage of impactful injury news so let's dig into the best DFS plays and props to consider!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
It’s a jam-packed Friday in the NBA with 11 games on the docket and your boy is a little sick so we’re going to waste zero time and get right into this thing!
Today’s key injuries:
(Still not including guys who haven’t played yet this season unless they have a chance to make their season debut)
CHA: SG Terry Rozier - OUT, SG/SF Cody Martin - OUT
ORL: PG Cole Anthony - OUT, PG/SG Jalen Suggs - OUT
DET: SG Jaden Ivey - GTD
CLE: PG Darius Garland - OUT
BOS: SF/PF Grant Williams - OUT
PHI: C Joel Embiid - questionable
WAS: PG Delon Wright - OUT
LAL: SF/PF LeBron James - probable, PF/C Anthony Davis - questionable (GTD), PG Russell Westbrook - Probable (may play off the bench), PF Juan Toscano-Anderson - OUT
MIN: SF/PF Kyle Anderson - questionable
CHI: SG Zach LaVine - questionable
SAS: SF/SG Devin Vassell - OUT, PG/SG Joshua Primo - OUT
UTA: PG/SG Collin Sexton - questionable, C Walker Kessler - questionable
DEN: SF Michael Porter Jr. - questionable (“intends to play”), SG Kenneth Caldwell-Pope - questionable
NOP: PF Zion Williamson - questionable, PG/SG CJ McCollum - questionable, SG Brandon Ingram - OUT, SF Herbert Jones - questionable, PG Jose Alvarado - questionable, PG/SF Dyson Daniels - questionable
HOU: PG Kevin Porter Jr. - probable, C Alperen Sengun - probable, C Bruno Fernando - OUT
POR: PG Damian Lillard - OUT
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG/SF Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
Damien Lillard’s (calf) absence from tonight’s game is one of the most impactful injuries of the day. Lillard leaves behind a huge 33.5% USG% and Anfernee Simons projects to see the highest usage bump among the Portland starters. Simons already has a strong 24.8% USG% this season and has chucked up 8.8 3PA/Gm. So, add on some extra usage and potentially some additional ball-handling duties and you can see why he’ll be a go-to guard to roster today. There is not a thing wrong with the match-up either. Houston ranks 9th in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency.
PG Dennis Smith Jr., CHA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | @ ORL | Cash & GPP
LaMelo Ball (ankle) remains sidelined, and Terry Rozier (ankle) is unlikely to suit up again. That leaves Dennis Smith Jr. in another nice spot to put up a strong performance out of the $6k range. In his last two games as a starter, Smith has put up a combined 32 shot attempts while racking up 17 assists, five steals, and five rebounds while playing 34 and 37 minutes. He should continue to receive minutes in the mid-30s, and while this is far from a sexy match-up, this game is tied for the closest spread on the slate (CHA -2), and Orlando ranks 20th in defensive efficiency early on this season.
PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.4k | @ SAS | GPP Preferred
If SG Zach LaVine (currently questionable) is ruled out tonight, Dosunmu lands firmly in as a cash-safe play. As it stands now, he’s a great GPP target out of the $5k range. At these DFS salaries, Dosunmu has hit 6x value or better in 3-of-5 games this season while playing a hair under 32 Min/Gm. If LaVine suits up, Dosunmu will not be a high-usage player, but he does put up respectable peripherals and has shot 45% from beyond the arc this season. The Spurs have allowed some huge opposing point totals this season, thus ranking 25th in defensive efficiency, and this represents a sizable pace-up spot for Chicago (CHI: 20th in pace, SAS: 8th in pace).
Also Consider:
PG Trae Young, ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.4k | @ DET | Cash & GPP
*PG/SG James Harden, PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | @ TOR | GPP Preferred
**PG/SG CJ McCollum, NOP | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.3k | @ PHX | Cash & GPP
PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.6k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Anthony Edwards, MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. LAL | Cash & GPP
PG/SG Shaedon Sharpe, POR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
*If Embiid sits. Otherwise, it’s an ugly match-up.
**Dependent on the Pelicans’ messy injury news.
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.1k, FD: $11.8k | vs. NYK | Cash & GPP
His DFS salaries are getting up there and today’s match-up against the Knicks is not nearly as juicy as his last match-up with the Nets. Despite the large slate, many of the options at the SF/PF positions do feel a bit dicey today, particularly at the top of pricing. Given the way Giannis is playing this season combined with the continued absence of Khris Middleton (wrist) from the lineup, you do have to feel good about slotting in a guy that should most likely deliver a 60+ FP result. Giannis has posted an absurd 37.4% USG% this season and the Knicks have been a high-tempo team, currently playing at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA.
PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred
Banchero has come out of the gates in impressive fashion to begin his NBA career. He has averaged 1.23 DKFPPM while playing no fewer than 33 minutes in any game this season. He boasts a 30.1% USG% while also averaging 7.6 RPG. He may see additional usage with PG Cole Anthony sitting out tonight as well. Rostering bigs against Charlotte has been a strategy that has worked out in the past and the Hornets also represent a significant pace-up match-up (ORL: 22nd in pace, CHA: 3rd in pace). It’s a strong spot for Banchero to continue rolling after posting a new career-high 29 points in his last game.
SF/SG Keon Johnson, POR | DK: $3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
This is one of the 10:00 ET games, so we won’t know Portland’s starting lineup before this slate gets underway. That puts some risk onto this play. Expect either Keon Johnson or Shaedon Sharpe to fill in as the starting SG for the Trailblazers tonight while Anfernee Simons moves over to the primary PG role. Even if Johnson doesn’t start, he should see some additional run with the second unit and he’s not going to need a ton of production to pay off these modest salaries. He is around a 0.90 FPPM player so roughly 20 minutes of run should lead to value here.
Also Consider:
SF/PF LeBron James, LAL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.3k | @ MIN | Cash & GPP
SF/PF Jayson Tatum, BOS | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.5k | vs. CLE | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.2k | @ DEN | GPP Preferred
SF/SG Josh Hart, POR | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
SF Franz Wagner, ORL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP
SF/SG Buddy Hield, IND | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.5k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
PF/C John Collins, ATL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | @ DET | Cash & GPP
Collins recently put up 42.25 DKFP in 36 minutes against this Pistons team two days ago and I believe we can expect much of the same tonight. Detroit is middle-of-the-pack in pace (15th) but they’re bad defensively (28th in DEF efficiency), they’re 28th in FG%, and 22nd in rebounding%. On top of Collins’ 19.0 PPG and 10.5 RPG, he has been active defensively, combining for 3.8 STL+BLK/Gm this season.
C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.1k | @ POR | GPP Preferred
If we knew Sengun was guaranteed to start tonight and play 30+ minutes, he’d be locked in as a smash play for this slate. As it stands now, Sengun is listed as probable and will be returning from a two-game absence after dealing with an illness. He has averaged 1.35 DKFPPM this season so, even if he is playing off of the bench, as long as he handles some decent minutes, he can return strong value at these salaries.
Also Consider:
C Nikola Jokic, DEN | DK: $11k, FD: $11.5k | vs. UTA | GPP Preferred
C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP
C Jusuf Nurkic, POR | DK: $7.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. HOU | GPP Preferred
C Bol Bol, ORL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.9k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
John Collins to Record a Double-Double AND Hawks to Win | +225 (PointsBet) | 1.25 Units
To repeat what was mentioned above in the DFS section:
“Collins recently put up 42.25 DKFP in 36 minutes played against this Pistons team two days ago and I believe we can expect much of the same tonight. Detroit is middle-of-the-pack in pace (15th) but they’re bad defensively (28th in DEF efficiency), they’re 28th in FG%, and 22nd in rebounding%. On top of Collins’ 19.0 PPG and 10.5 RPG, he has been active defensively, combining for 3.8 STL+BLK/Gm this season.”
So we can feel good about Collins getting double-digit rebounds in this game and he should easily get the 10+ points as well. The Hawks just beat Detroit 118-113 on Wednesday and they are -6.5 favorites in the quick re-match tonight. I like them to cover that spread tonight but, at the very least, they should emerge with the dub.
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 27.5 Points + Assists | -115 (Caesars) | 1.75 Units
Haliburton has been a strong scorer and elite facilitator for the Pacers early on this year. He has at least 10 assists in four consecutive games while averaging 22.6 PPG in five games this season. Some may be surprised to find out that Washington ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, but Haliburton did still hit the over on this prop when the Pacers played the Wizards in the first game of the season. Haliburton combined for 34 PTS+AST in that meeting.
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Tyrese Haliburton MORE than 18.5 Points
John Collins MORE than 1.5 BLKS+STLS
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!