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Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/31 | Is Pacers Chalk Too Spooky Tonight?
There is no reason to be scared of today's seven-game NBA slate! Let's look at some non-spooky plays and props to consider tonight!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Happy Halloween to all you NBA DFS ghouls and goblins! We’ve got a nice mid-sized Monday seven-game slate on the menu for today, which is the perfect NBA slate size. This sort of slate limits a lot of the chaos that the massive 10+ game slates can have. And there are still a number of comfortable ways we can go about attacking a slate of this size, unlike something like a two-to-four-game slate.
Today’s key injury news as of this afternoon:
CHA: PG/SG Terry Rozier - OUT, SG/SF Cody Martin - OUT
PHI: C Joel Embiid - OUT
WAS: PG Delon Wright - OUT
TOR: PG/SG Fred VanVleet - OUT
IND: SF Aaron Nesmith - questionable, PG TJ McConnell - questionable
BKN: PG/SF Ben Simmons - Unlikely, SG Seth Curry - OUT
DET: C Jalen Duran - OUT, PG/SG Alec Burks - questionable
MIL: C Brook Lopez - probable
MEM: PG Ja Morant - questionable, SG/SF Desmond Bane - questionable, PF Jake LaRavia - questionable
UTA: C Walker Kessler - OUT, PF Rudy Gay - OUT
HOU: SF Eric Gordon - questionable, C Bruno Fernando - OUT
LAC: SF Kawhi Leonard - OUT, PG John Wall - questionable (not expected to play), PF/C Robert Covington - questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Tyrese Haliburton, IND | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ BKN | Cash & GPP
Haliburton continues to be one of the most consistent DFS performers early on this season and, if he keeps this level of play up, he won’t be in this $8k range much longer. The Nets continue to rank dead last in defensive efficiency and Haliburton just posted a 26 PT, 8 AST, 6 REB, and 3 STL performance against them on Saturday. This game should be a fast-paced match-up and it owns the highest total on the slate with a huge 235 O/U. Barring a blowout, Haliburton should continue to provide a great floor and a strong 50+ FP ceiling.
PG Dennis Smith Jr., CHA | DK: $6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. SAC | Cash & GPP
DSJ had a lackluster performance two games ago in a 20-point loss to Orlando, but he came right back the next game to play 37 minutes in an upset win over the Warriors. He flirted with a triple-double last game (13 PT, 8 AST, 9 REB), and he’ll be the guy running the show for the Hornets again due to the continued absences of LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier (doubtful). This is also another strong game environment with a fast pace, a high total (231.5 O/U), and a close spread (CHA +3).
SG/SF Buddy Hield, IND | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.2k | @ BKN | Cash & GPP
Hield now has four consecutive performances of at least 35.5 DKFP, and he remains an affordable 6x upside option at around $6k on both sites. In typical Buddy Hield fashion, he’s chucking up a ton of threes with 9.3 3PA/Gm, connecting from deep at a 44.6% clip. As mentioned with Haliburton, there is some risk that this game gets out of hand (BKN -7.5), but Hield was also a rebound and two assists shy of a triple-double against this same Nets team on Saturday. Look for Hield to stay aggressive as he tries to stave off losing minutes to rapidly emerging rookie SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, who is coming off a massive 32-point game.
Also Consider:
PG De’Aaron Fox, SAC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.6k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
PG Tyrese Maxey, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | @ WAS | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, IND | DK: $6k, FD: $6.1k | @ BKN | Cash & GPP
PG Reggie Jackson, LAC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.8k | vs. HOU | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Joe Harris, BKN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred
PG/SF De’Anthony Melton, PHI | DK: $4k, FD: $4.7k | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL | DK: $12.5k, FD: $12k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred
There isn’t much that is needed to be said about how good Giannis has been this season. If I recall correctly, Giannis had just four (actual) points in the first half of his last game against Atlanta and it was looking like he was on his way to his first dud of the season. He ended the game with 34 points, 17 rebounds, four assists, and a block -- good for 64.25 DKFP. Giannis’ usage for the season is at a massive 35.8% and he’s bringing down 14.0 RPG, supplying 5.8 APG, and reeling in 2.2 STL+BLK/Gm. But there are a couple of major hang-ups here that might make Giannis more of a GPP play today. At $12.5k on DraftKings, he now needs 75 DKFP to return GPP-winning 6x value. He’s done that already this season but just keep in mind that 6x is a tough threshold to hit at this salary (the $12k price on FanDuel makes him a more preferred target there). Also, this game with Detroit could easily turn into a blowout (MIL -13) and Giannis may not need to play his usual 35-ish minutes. With that said, the Greek Freak should continue to be a nightmare for opposing teams to deal with.
SF/PF Lauri Markkanen, UTA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.6k | vs. MEM | Cash & GPP
His salaries continue to creep up, but it’s hard to look past Markkanen as he continues to be a centerpiece of this surprisingly potent Jazz lineup. He owns a strong 25.0% USG% while averaging 17.3 FGA/Gm, and he’s crashing the boards effectively while snagging 9.0 RPG. The Jazz knocked off the Grizz on Saturday in a 124-123 shootout. The fact that Utah is only a +2 underdog here leads me to believe that at least one of the currently “questionable to play” Memphis studs (Morant and Bane) won’t suit up. If that is the case, this is likely going to be another fast-paced, high-scoring atmosphere, and the Jazz should be able to hang around (and win?) even if both Morant and Bane are able to suit up.
PF/C Isaiah Stewart, DET | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | @ MIL | Cash & GPP
Stewart has been a nice source of value this season, scoring under 26.0 DKFP just once in seven games. He is coming off his best performance of the season, where he put up 24 points and brought down 13 boards. With injuries to other Pistons bigs (M. Bagley & J. Duren, both out tonight), Stewart should see 30+ minutes even if this game trends toward a blowout. He’ll need to stay out of foul trouble as he’ll be dealing with Giannis on a routine basis in the paint. Otherwise, I find it unlikely that he’ll fail in this spot at these low DFS salaries.
Also Consider:
SF Kevin Durant, BKN | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | vs. IND | GPP Preferred
SF Gordon Hayward, CHA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.6k | vs. SAC | GPP Preferred
PF/C Bobby Portis, MIL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.8k | vs. DET | GPP Preferred
PF Marcus Morris Sr., LAC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5k | vs. HOU | Cash & GPP
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Pascal Siakam, TOR | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. ATL | Cash & GPP
Siakam has really stepped up his offensive presence this season with a 30.0% USG% through the first six games of the season. His usage would likely receive an additional uptick if Fred VanVleet (questionable) sits tonight. Perhaps what is more remarkable about Siakam’s 2022-23 season up to this point are his assists numbers. The big man is averaging a remarkable 7.7 APG to go along with 9.2 RPG. If that trend continues, he’s going to flirt with a triple-double on a semi-routine basis, especially given how many minutes Raptors HC Nick Nurse gives his starters (Siakam: 37.8 Min/Gm this season).
C Brook Lopez, MIL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DET | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
We cannot look past BroLo on DraftKings at this salary. At $5,100, he has hit anywhere from 6x value to 8x value in four-of-five games this season. He’s never been a traditional center that brings in a ton of rebounds, but he does stretch the court and is firing from beyond the arc. He’s attempting 7.4 3PA/Gm and hitting them at a solid 35.1% clip. Like the other Bucks starters, the risk of a blowout is a concern. Lopez is also on the injury report with an illness but is listed as probable to play. I’d maybe look elsewhere on FanDuel but, until DraftKings bumps his price, he’s firmly on the DFS radar once again.
Also Consider:
C Domantis Sabonis, SAC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.7k | @ CHA | Cash & GPP
C Myles Turner, IND | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.8k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
C Alperen Sengun, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.4k | @ LAC | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Isaiah Stewart OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds | -101 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
Stewart should be a strong bet to play 30+ minutes regardless of whether or not the Bucks pull away with a huge lead. The Pistons' frontcourt is thin tonight due to injuries, and Stewart has played around 30 Min/Gm despite the Pistons being involved in multiple blowout losses this season. It’s not an easy match-up, but Stewart has hit the over on this prop in four of his last five games and he got the over on this prop on points alone in his last game.
Pascal Siakam OVER 15.5 Rebounds + Assists | -103 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units
As mentioned above, Siakam has been an excellent facilitator while averaging 7.7 APG, and he’s bringing down 9.2 RPG. He has hit the over on this prop in four of his last five games, and he was just one assist or rebound away from hitting the over in five straight. Whether Fred VanVleet (questionable) is playing tonight, Siakam is a good bet to cash this prop. The Hawks rank 27th in rebounding% so I believe Siakam can get close to the over on this prop on rebounds alone.
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Isaiah Stewart MORE than 19.5 Points + Rebounds
Pascal Siakam MORE than 15.5 Rebounds + Assists
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for NBA – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!