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- Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/1 | New Month, New Money!
Top NBA DFS Plays & Prop Bets 11/1 | New Month, New Money!
We kick off November with an intriguing little four-game slate. Let's get a look at today's best DFS plays and props to consider!
Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries
DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰
Some big NBA news dropped today -- Steve Nash is out in Brooklyn. Surely this will fix all of the Nets’ problems… surely. The Nets are on today’s slate, but the Nash firing should not affect DFS decision-making much, if at all. We have a smaller four-game slate to dig into on this fine Tuesday so let’s put on our thinking caps and get to work!
Key Injury News (as of this afternoon):
GSW: SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo - OUT
CHI: SG Zach LaVine - questionable, expected to play, PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu - questionable, trending toward playing, C Andre Drummond - OUT, PG/SG Coby White - questionable
BKN: PG/SF Ben Simmons - OUT, SG Seth Curry - OUT
ORL: PG Cole Anthony - OUT, PG/SG Jalen Suggs - will play
OKC: PGSG Josh Giddey - questionable
MIN: SF/PG Kyle Anderson - questionable, PG Jordan McLaughlin - questionable
PHX: C Deandre Ayton - OUT, PF/C Torrey Craig - questionable
Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads
Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.
Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀
PG Kyrie Irving, BKN | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP
We have to assume that the Nash firing will not cause any significant changes to the current Nets rotation and minutes distribution. There is also some off-the-court drama going on with Irving, but we're here for DFS purposes so we'll stick in that lane. Irving plays huge minutes every night and has averaged 40.4 Min/Gm over his last five starts, with only one of those being an overtime game. When it comes to Irving, we shouldn’t be too worried about the back-to-back either (played 43 min. yesterday) -- his best game of the early season came on the back end of a B2B after all. When he’s on the court, which is nearly the entire game, he owns a 30.8% USG% and is putting up 22.9 FGA/Gm, including 9.9 3PA/Gm. With Ben Simmons (knee) out, that won’t boost Irving’s projected usage much, but it may benefit Irving’s assists upside (Simmons: 7.3 APG this season). This game has the highest total on the slate (231.5 O/U) and is expected to be the fastest-paced game on the slate as well (203.0 combined pace).
PG Kyle Lowry, MIA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.5k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP
Lowry is not a high-usage player as he has just a 16.8% USG% this season leading to 12.4 PPG. But he is going to play strong minutes in any competitive game and will typically put up some solid peripheral stats. He has now scored between 30.5 DKFP and 40.5 DKFP in five of his last six games. Against the Warriors last Thursday, Lowry put up a strong stat line of 12 PT, 8 AST, 5 REB, and 3 STL -- good for 36.25 DKFP. It’s not an exciting play, but Lowry will provide a good chance for a 6x value return on his fairly modest $6k DFS salary.
SG/SF Jalen Williams, OKC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.2k |vs. ORL | GPP Preferred
Jalen Williams (eye) returned from a four-game absence on Saturday and was effective off of the bench. In 27 minutes, Williams put up 13 points, three rebounds, three assists, four steals, and one block -- a performance that netted 29.75 DKFP. The five combined STL+BLK are likely an outlier but Williams, the No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, could continue to see minutes in the mid-20s off of the bench, especially while Josh Giddey (ankle) remains sidelined.
Also Consider:
PG Stephen Curry, GSW | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.8k | vs. ORL | Cash & GPP/DK Preferred
PG/SG Ayo Dosunmu, CHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.6k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
PG Goran Dragic, CHI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.8k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀
SF Kevin Durant, BKN | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.4k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP
Durant stands to benefit the most from Ben Simmons’ absence tonight. His high offensive usage (33.1% USG%) is not affected by Simmons being sidelined, but rather, it’s Durant’s peripheral stats that should get a nice boost. With Simmons out of the lineup yesterday, Durant brought down a season-high nine rebounds and dished out a season-high seven assists. We know KD is going to be extremely active on offense, but the implied boost to his secondary stats could make him the top DFS stud on the slate.
PF Paolo Banchero, ORL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.5k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred
This year's draft's No. 1 overall pick has gotten off to a strong rookie start. He’s averaging 1.24 DKFPPM, so if he handles around 36 minutes tonight, you can see how that could translate into 6x upside. OKC ranks near the bottom of the NBA in shooting% and rebounding%, so Banchero has a good chance to rack up some boards while continuing to be highly active offensively (31.1% USG%).
PF Yuta Watanabe, BKN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. CHI | GPP/DK Preferred
Watanabe has not been efficient on an FPPM basis, but he is a good bet to crack 20+ minutes off of the Nets bench tonight and he’s just $100 above the minimum on DraftKings. On a slate that may favor a “stars and scrubs” approach, Watanabe would be one “scrub” you could throw in that would easily allow you to jam multiple studs into the same lineup. This is a low-floor play but Watanabe won’t have to do much to return 6x value or better.
Also Consider:
PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.6k | vs. GSW | GPP Preferred
SF/PF Bol Bol, ORL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $5.8k | @ OKC | GPP Preferred
SG/SF Royce O’Neale, BKN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CHI | Cash & GPP
SF/PF Patrick Williams, CHI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.1k | @ BKN | GPP/DK Preferred
Centers to Consider 🏀
C Nikola Vucevic, CHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k | @ BKN | GPP Preferred
Vuc has not been a consistent fantasy performer this season. He has an excellent ceiling but a low floor in relation to his DFS salaries. With that in mind, he’s gone for 50+ FP in two of his last four games and this could be another one of those ceiling nights. The Nets have not been good defensively (29th in defensive efficiency) and they rank dead last in team rebounding%. As long as he gets the minutes, Vucevic brings 20/20 upside to the table tonight.
C Jock Landale, PHX | DK: $5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. MIN | GPP Preferred
With Deandre Ayton set to miss his second consecutive game, the Suns will turn to either Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale at center in their starting lineup. Biyombo got the starting nod in the last game, but Landale ended up edging him out in minutes played. Landale has commanded a strong 24.7% USG% when he’s been on the court this season while averaging 1.14 DKFPPM. If he pushes for 25-30 minutes tonight, he may very well post his best fantasy performance of the season.
Also Consider:
C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.9k | vs. GSW | Cash & GPP
PF/C Darius Bazley, OKC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.7k | vs. ORL | GPP Preferred
NBA Player Props 📊
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Jock Landale OVER 10.5 Points | -106 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units
In the two games that Landale has played 20+ minutes this season, he has point totals of 17 and 16. He has accounted for a strong 24.7% USG% when he’s on the court and he should be a good bet to play at least 20-to-25 minutes tonight. Deandre Ayton (ankle) won’t be available tonight and the Suns could use Landale’s size against the Timberwolves' twin towers of Rudy Gobert and Karl Anthony-Towns. I believe Landale hits over 10.5 points with relative ease.
Kevin Durant OVER 13.5 Rebounds + Assists | -128 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units
It is no coincidence that Durant reached season highs in both rebounds (nine) and assists (seven) in yesterday’s game when Ben Simmons also did not play. With Simmons out again tonight, Durant should continue to see a noticeable boost to his peripheral stats so we’ll take a shot on the over for his fairly low REB+AST prop total.
PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Kyrie Irving MORE than 34.5 PTS+ASTS
Paolo Banchero LESS than 2.5 Turnovers
🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕
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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). You'll receive a 100% match on first deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.
That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!