Only four NBA games on the board today but there is plenty of DFS and prop bet action to get into!

Written By: Ryan Humphries on Twitter & LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries

DFS Main Slate Rundown 📰

It’s a much less hectic day in the NBA, with only four games on tap. Injury news and the potential for analysis paralysis will be dialed back today, but the margin for error also gets smaller with fewer options available at each position. Let’s dive in and see if we can crush another NBA slate, shall we?

Today’s Key Injury News:

Mavericks: C. Wood - OUT

Wizards: K. Porzingis - Questionable, B. Beal - OUT, D. Wright - OUT, T. Gibson - Questionable

Hornets: G. Hayward - OUT, C. Martin - OUT

Heat: T. Herro - Questionable, C. Martin - Questionable

76ers: J. Harden - OUT, PJ Tucker - Questionable

Hawks: B. Bogdanovic - Questionable, J. Johnson - Questionable

Trailblazers: D. Lillard - OUT, J. Nurkic - Questionable, J. Grant - Questionable, K. Johnson - Questionable

Pelicans: L. Nance Jr. - Questionable

Main Slate Match-Ups w/ Game Totals & Point Spreads

Note: NBA position designations are never going to perfectly align between the major DFS sites. For the purposes of these newsletters, positional designations will default to DraftKings.

💫 = Favorite Play

Point Guards/Shooting Guards to Consider 🏀

PG Luka Doncic, DAL | DK: $12.5k, FD: $12.5k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP

On these smaller slates, the fantasy floor that superstars like Luka can provide becomes markedly more important. At $12,500 (on both sites), you’ll need 75 FP from him to hit 6x value. Can Luka do that? Absolutely! Is it likely? I wouldn’t say so. However, he is coming off of his worst game last night, where he failed to score 30+ (actual) points for the first time this season -- he still posted 51.5 DKFP/55.2 FDFP. So, on this slate, you can take Luka for the massive floor that he offers and look to make up a little “x” value elsewhere. And, as always, there is a moderately high chance that he goes off for 70+ FP. While this game does possess the lowest total on the slate (209 O/U), it is a decent match-up as Washington ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency, and they’ve surrendered some huge games to opposing PGs this season.

💫PG/SG Anfernee Simons, POR | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP

Damian Lillard (injury management) will miss tonight’s second leg of a back-to-back, putting Simons firmly in the DFS cross-hairs. Lillard also sat out across a four-game stretch between 10/28-11/5. Simons missed two of those games, but in the two games he did play, he put up fantasy point totals of 52.75 DKFP/49.5 FDFP and 46.75 DKFP/42.6 FDFP. Simons has seen a +3.4% USG% bump with Lillard off the court this season, and his assist rate also rises as he operates as the primary ball handler. Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant are both questionable to play tonight as well. Simons has seen a massive +13.7% USG% increase with Lillard, Nurkic, and Grant off the floor this season so he becomes an even stronger play if one, or both of those guys, sit out.

PG/SG Jordan Goodwin, WAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.2k | vs. DAL | GPP Preferred

We’ve got to find some value on the slate if we’re looking to jam in guys like Luka, so let’s keep Jordan Goodwin on the radar. In the absence of Bradley Beal (out tonight as well) in the last two games, Goodwin has seen an expanded role off the bench, and he has not disappointed. He posted 33.0 DKFP in 26 minutes against Memphis and 33.5 DKFP in 21 minutes against Charlotte. Now, he has shot 11-of-14 (78.6% FG%) from the field in those two games, which is an unsustainable FG%. But he has also been crashing the boards, dishing assists, and grabbing some steals/blocks along the way. Overall, he’s averaging an impressive 1.17 DKFPPM this season. If the Wizards decide that Goodwin has impressed enough in these recent games and choose to bump him into the starting lineup, he’ll become a viable cash game play. As it stands now, we’ll assume he continues to play off of the bench with an uncertain amount of minutes, thus making him more of a GPP target.

Other Guards to Consider:

SG Brandon Ingram, NOP | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. POR | Cash & GPP

💫SG Spencer Dinwiddie, DAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP

PG Dennis Smith Jr. CHA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred

PG Gabe Vincent, MIA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4k | vs. CHA | GPP Preferred

SG/SF Will Barton, WAS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. DAL | GPP Preferred

PG/SG James Bouknight, CHA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.8k | @ MIA | GPP/DK Preferred

Small Forwards/Power Forwards to Consider 🏀

💫SF/PF Tobias Harris, PHI | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k | @ ATL | Cash & GPP

Tobias Harris has been the second-leading beneficiary (behind T. Maxey) when James Harden has been off the court this season. Without Harden, Harris has seen a +4.1% USG% boost and a +13.5 FP/48 Min increase to his overall fantasy scores. He has also played bigger minutes, reaching 37 and 38 minutes in the last two games (sans Harden), which are his two highest minutes totals on the season. Harris is one of the stronger floor/ceiling options at the forward position today.

PF Max Strus, MIA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.9k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP

Strus isn’t the most consistent DFS performer, so he’s not usually the kind of player I would label as a “cash” target. But due to the nature of this slate, he’ll be a viable option in all formats today. Strus may also get a bump to his projected floor if either Tyler Herro (ankle/questionable) or Caleb Martin (quad/questionable) sit out tonight. As it stands now, Strus is averaging a respectable 31.5 Min/Gm workload, shooting 60% from two-point range, and putting up 7.4 3PA/Gm while connecting on 38.3% of those shots from beyond the arc (45.0% 3Pt% L3Gms). He can often rack up 15-20 points, so if he has a good night reeling in the peripheral stats, he’s a decent candidate to return 6x value.

PF/C Maxi Kleber, DAL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.7k | @ WAS | Cash & GPP

I don’t believe anyone is going to trip over themselves rushing to roster Maxi Kleber -- he is averaging a rather pathetic 0.54 DKFPPM this season. However, with Christian Wood (knee) out tonight, Kleber’s minutes off of the bench are fairly secured. He has played 29 and 33 minutes in the last two games, and the salary relief he provides will open up the viability of a “stars and scrubs” lineup build tonight. Assuming he does play around 30 minutes tonight, he could return 5x to 6x value if we’re a little lucky.

Other Forwards to Consider:

💫PF Jimmy Butler, MIA | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP

PF Zion Williamson, NOP | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred

SF/SG Kelly Oubre Jr., CHA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5.7k | @ MIA | GPP Preferred

💫SF De’Andre Hunter, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. PHI | Cash & GPP

PF Rui Hachimura, WAS | DK; $4.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. DAL | Cash & GPP

Centers to Consider 🏀

💫C Bam Adebayo, MIA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CHA | Cash & GPP

We have yet to really see a massive ceiling game out of Adebayo yet this season but he is typically going to return around 35-to-40 FP, which is “fine” for a pesky little slate like this one. If there is a time for a ceiling performance, perhaps it would be tonight. The Hornets have been awful against opposing centers. They rank 27th against centers this season, and they’re allowing 51.8 points in the paint per game (8th most). This was a match-up that Adebayo thrived in last season as well. In four games against the Hornets last season, Adebayo averaged 48.3 DKFPPG.

C Onyeka Okongwu, ATL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. PHI | GPP Preferred

If you’re in search of a cheap center play in a stars and scrubs build and/or you want to go against the grain by fading the (likely) Maxi Kleber chalk, Okongwu may be a quality punt option. He’s playing around 20 minutes per game, and he’s averaging just under an FPPM when he’s on the court. When any team plays the 76ers, there is always a chance that their starting center gets into some foul trouble against Joel Embiid. In the off-chance that happens, Okongwu may see a little extra run than usual tonight.

Other Centers to Consider:

💫C Joel Embiid, PHI | DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.5k | @ ATL | GPP Preferred

C Jonas Valanciunas, NOP | DK: $7k, FD: $6.7k | vs. POR | GPP Preferred

C Drew Eubanks, POR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | @ NOP | Cash & GPP **Only IF Nurkic is out again**

NBA Player Props 📊

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Joel Embiid OVER 28.5 Points | -115 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Embiid’s season has been fairly mundane by his standards but, after missing a few games with an illness, he looked much more like himself in his last outing when he put up 33 points against Phoenix. He is averaging 28.0 PPG this season, but he has mostly played with James Harden on the court -- Harden is of course, out for the foreseeable future with a foot injury. The 76ers do lose some shot facilitation with Harden out of the lineup, but there is also a 26.6% USG% that he leaves behind. When Harden has been off of the court this season, Embiid has picked up a mammoth 35.4% usage rate. The Hawks rank in the middle of the pack defensively (13th in def. Efficiency) and they allow the 7th-most points in the paint (52.2 PPG). We can feel pretty confident in Embiid hitting the over on his points prop this evening.

Anfernee Simons OVER 27.5 Points + Assists | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

This prop has everything to do with Damian Lillard sitting out tonight. In the two games Simons played with Lillard sidelined this season, he scored 30 points with seven assists (vs. HOU) and 31 points with eight assists (vs. MEM). He could hit the over on this prop with points alone, so the assists add to the likelihood that this prop cashes.

PrizePicks Two-Pick Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's NBA action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Joel Embiid MORE than 28.5 Points

Anfernee Simons MORE than 27.5 Points + Assists

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

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That will wrap us up with today’s “Daily Dribble” edition! Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck everyone!